VZCZCXRO5890
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0390/01 1491213
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 291213Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2478
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000390 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, CA, INR, AF/E-MBEYZEROV 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: MONTH THREE OF GENERAL SOCIAL CALM BEGINS, AS 
MEDIATION AND POLITICAL POSTURING CONTINUE 
 
REF:  A: ANTANANARIVO 364 B: ANTANANARIVO 370 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With the exception of a brief flare up of violent 
confrontations April 20-25, Madagascar and Antananarivo are moving 
into the third month of general social calm since the coup of 
mid-March.  The generally positive conditions reported in refs A and 
B continue to prevail.  Through the period since March there have 
been no reported attacks or credible threats against foreigners or 
the US mission.  Political dialogue led by the international 
mediation team continues fitfully, punctuated with political 
posturing by all sides.  The talks continue behind the scenes none 
the less and the mediators remain optimistic that the process is 
moving forward toward a signed charter of the transition by 
(optimistically) June 11.  The military remains largely apathetic. 
Shopping areas frequented by expats and the US community remain well 
stocked and secure as do gas stations.  Restaurants are open, and 
anecdotally tourists are reported to be returning.  The airport is 
open and operating normally.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
Daily Life Continues Normally 
---------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) The situation remains calm in Antananarivo, with no clashes 
between protestors and police in the capital since April 25, despite 
almost daily non-violent, stationary small-scale protests in favor 
of Ravalomanana.  The rest of the country remained calm as well, 
with only one minor skirmish between security forces and protesters 
reported in Antsirabe May 23, during which police used tear gas to 
disperse a small crowd, causing minor injuries.  Life goes on as 
normal for locals and expatriates, with grocery stores, 
supermarkets, gas stations, and other stores well-stocked.  Food in 
the city appears readily available for the local population as well. 
 A visible security presence remains deployed throughout the city. 
All airports have remained operational since the crisis began, and 
the embassy has not been closed due to political confrontations 
since March 18. As reflected in the May 27-28 military "assises", 
the military has settled into inactivity and seems resigned to lay 
low, allowing the politicians to sort out Madagascar's governance 
issues without its intervention (DAO septel). 
 
Talks on Hold but Shuttle Diplomacy Continues 
------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) The International Contact Group (ICG) mediators from the 
African Union and SADC convened ICG members and local diplomats, as 
well as a visiting delegation from the Indian Ocean Commission, on 
May 29 to provide an update on the status of the Malagasy political 
negotiations.  AU Mediator Ablasse Ouedraogo explained that, 
although negotiations have not advanced this week, they have not 
lost ground, and he remains optimistic that remaining issues can be 
worked out following a potential relocation of negotiations to Addis 
Ababa June 6.  Ouedraogo explained that the three former presidents, 
Ratsiraka, Zafy, and Ravalomanana, as well as transition leader 
Rajoelina, would not participate directly in negotiations at Addis 
but would be located nearby.  This move would allow currently exiled 
leaders Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka to quickly provide guidance to 
their delegations.  Ouedraogo has submitted a budget request to the 
AU for the move, but requested support from the international 
community in providing a sixty seat airplane to transport the 
delegations.  He optimistically aims for Ratsiraka, Zafy, 
Ravalomanana, and Rajoelina to sign the transition charter by June 
11 in Addis, or at the latest by June 26, Madagascar's Independence 
Day. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The four movements were all given copies of a draft 
transition charter to review on May 25.  They agreed to meet May 27 
to continue negotiations, but Ratsiraka's team requested additional 
time to review the document and raised two preconditions prior to 
resuming talks: 1) an annulment of legal claims and judgments 
against him and his supporters arising from 2002 events and 2) a 
cancellation of the ordinance creating the National Defense Military 
Council (CMDN) that was issued unilaterally by the transition 
administration (HAT) with disregard to the ongoing discussions. 
Ouedraogo explained that all four movements had already agreed to an 
amnesty, absent gross human rights violations and other egregious 
acts, that the issue of the CMDN would be raised with Rajoelina upon 
his return, and that he encouraged Ratsiraka's team to bring their 
concerns to the negotiating table.  Ouedraogo planned to contact the 
heads of the four delegations to meet following the ICG meeting May 
29 to talk about these concerns.                Negotiations will 
resume once Ratsiraka's team gives the green light. 
 
Inflammatory Rhetoric and Rumors 
-------------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Despite inflammatory media statements by Rajoelina that the 
HAT would never agree to Ravalomanana's return (May 27), which 
Ouedraogo attributed to Rajoelina's need to assure his supporters 
prior to his departure from country, and Ravalomanana's claims that 
France was entirely responsible for his overthrow (May 26) and then 
that he would return with troops and punish all those military 
 
ANTANANARI 00000390  002 OF 002 
 
 
personnel involved in the coup (May 28), shuttle diplomacy by the AU 
and SADC continues with each of the delegations.  The delegations 
are reviewing the draft charter to identify concerns for further 
discussion.  Ouedraogo identified the key remaining sticking points 
as the composition and leadership of the HAT, members of the 
transition congress, and the make-up of the national unity 
government.  The French Ambassador added that the timing and 
conditions of Ravalomanana's return have not yet been decided, but 
believed that although difficult points remained to be resolved, the 
delegations had the political will to do so, noting in addition 
France is in regular contact with Ratsiraka urging his cooperation. 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In keeping with the rumor mill that runs here media 
reports of "hundreds of troops" descending on the airport May 28 
because of rumors of Ravalomanana's "imminent return" actually 
consisted of a beefed up presence of 20-30 personnel who in no way 
disrupted operations according to Embassy GSO expediters and DAO 
contacts. 
 
SADC Envoy to Depart and Report to King 
--------------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) SADC Envoy Absalom Dlamini will depart May 29 to return to 
Swaziland and provide a report to the Swazi King.  He also hopes to 
pressure Ravalomanana to limit irresponsible, inflammatory rhetoric. 
 Dlamini clarified that SADC will only be providing moral support to 
Ravalomanana, but no SADC brigade, and chalked Ravalomanana's 
assertions up to rhetoric to stir up his supporters.  Ouedraogo 
urged all international community representatives with access to 
Ravalomanana to pass him this same message.  UN Senior Mediator 
Tiebiele Drame is scheduled to return to Madagascar the week of June 
¶1. 
 
US Concern Regarding Head of Transition Running in Election 
--------------------- 
¶8. (SBU) During the May 29 meeting, the Charge D'Affaires raised USG 
concern that the AU principle that the head of the transition 
government should not be able to run for president be respected, 
adding that if in fact the head of the transition did run for 
president while still leading the transition this would raise 
serious concern for the United States.  Ouedraogo responded that he 
noted the US concern about this issue, but this decision rested with 
the Malagasy involved in the negotiations.  Privately, the SADC 
envoy and the UN representative expressed support for this 
principle, but lamented that they had lost this argument when the 
"none of the four can run" strategy, supported by Rajoelina, failed 
and was replaced by the "all can run" strategy that all parties have 
now agreed to support.  In earlier meetings, the French Ambassador 
expressed the view that this principle, in addition to a signed 
consensual charter, was crucial to a successful outcome.  In the 
event, today France was silent on the issue. 
 
¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: Daily life throughout Madagascar has returned to 
normalcy, although the political situation remains unresolved. 
Despite this week's inflammatory political and media rhetoric, the 
negotiations are continuing and incremental progress has been made 
and maintained to date, although remaining issues, including the 
make up of the transition legislative and executive bodies will 
likely prove difficult to resolve.  The resident diplomatic 
community consensus is that this stasis is likely to endure for some 
months without a return to violent street confrontations. END 
COMMENT. 
 
STROMAYER