VZCZCXRO8613
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0332 1271224
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071224Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2401
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000332 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL CN
SUBJECT:  Comoros Tense Ahead Of May 17 Referendum 
 
REF: ANTAN 285 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY:  President Sambi's Union Government is actively 
campaigning for a constitutional referendum that would concentrate 
power in the central government, weaken island autonomy, and open 
the possibility that he could remain in office beyond the May, 2010 
end of his term.  Opposition leaders lodged an official complaint at 
the Constitutional Court, vow to prevent the vote from taking place, 
and will refuse to accept the outcome of what they call an "illegal" 
referendum.  END SUMMARY. 
Constitutional Revisions 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU)  President Sambi published his constitutional revisions to 
be considered for the May 17 referendum (in French and not as a part 
of the complete constitutional text - thus mostly indecipherable for 
Comorans and foreigners alike).  If approved, the referendum reduces 
island "presidents" to "governors" and strips them of most of their 
autonomy.  Local administrative responsibilities are delineated for 
the islands, with a clause that "any authorities not explicitly 
listed are the purview of the Union government."  A third vice 
president position would be created, resulting in one for each 
island to be responsible for implementing Union policy on their home 
island.  The vice presidents would have the powers and budget 
authority to replace the island presidents in most of their existing 
roles (and all of the profitable ones).  The draft also requires a 
"congress of parliaments" (the National Assembly and island 
assemblies) to meet to decide on a date for the next Union 
Presidential election and requires this be harmonized with votes for 
the island executives.  Given all four parliaments are already or 
soon-to-be defunct, their scheduled elections having not been held, 
such a congress would be unlikely to take place in the near future - 
and certainly not in time to decide that President Sambi should be 
replaced via an election at the end of his current mandate in May, 
¶2010. 
 
Opposition Turns To The Court 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Opposition leader and Grande Comore island president 
Abdouwahabi filed an official legal complaint against the referendum 
at the Constitutional Court May 4.  In a subsequent statement he 
argued that President Sambi's proposed changes to the constitution - 
most notably to delay the rotating presidency and eliminate island 
autonomy - are "untouchable" foundations of Comoros' basic law. 
Referring to the Union's published draft revisions, Abdouwahabi said 
President Sambi would "reduce the islands to the level of mere 
municipalities and take all power in the Union in violation of the 
Fomboni and Beit-Salaam Accords."  He and other opposition leaders 
from all three islands have announced a series of rallies in the 
coming days to call for a boycott of the referendum. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  COMMENT:  One of President Sambi's personal advisors 
recently told the Comoros Officer that he is being misled by his 
cabinet to believe his referendum is necessary and uncontroversial. 
The President seems genuinely well-intentioned but politically naove 
and increasingly detached from Comoran reality -- not surprising 
when he is out of the country half the time.  His referendum 
violates the spirit (if not the letter) of the Fomboni and 
Beit-Salaam reconciliation agreements by essentially ending island 
autonomy and delaying Moheli's turn in the rotating presidency. 
While it may be more efficient for a country of fewer than one 
million people to have a centralized government, Comoran history 
suggests that the people are from their islands first and from the 
Comoros second - and that they will refuse to be controlled from 
across the water.  Opposition leaders appear certain to contest what 
they see as Sambi's power-grab up to and beyond May 17.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT