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FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
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RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS ANKARA 000745 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PTER TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL CASEY 
 
Welcome 
------- 
¶1. (SBU) Coming in the wake of hugely successful trips of 
President Obama and Secretary Clinton, your visit will be 
seen as a further sign that Washington views Turkey as an 
important strategic partner.  Your visit is an opportunity to 
reinforce the importance of strong U.S.-Turkey relations and 
discuss several hot topics such as Turkey's role in the 
facilitation of talks between Israel/Syria and 
Pakistan/Afghanistan, as well as its own rapprochement with 
Armenia.  Turkey has worked hard under PM Erdogan to play a 
more active role in the region and to improve relations with 
its neighbors.  As a result, Turkish facilitation featured 
prominently in recent efforts to reduce regional tensions and 
Ankara won a 2009-2011 non-permanent membership in the UN 
Security Council. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Turkey has consistently demonstrated strong security 
cooperation as a key U.S. ally and the only NATO member 
bordering Iraq, Iran, and Syria.  Turkey has contributed 
forces to all NATO operations, and currently has 
approximately 750 troops serving in the International 
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan -- which it 
commanded twice -- and 400 troops in Kosovo (KFOR).  The 
cargo hub in Incirlik Air Base supports operations in Iraq 
and Afghanistan; 76 percent of air cargo entering Iraq 
transits Incirlik. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Having secured a majority in March 29 nationwide 
municipal elections, the ruling Justice and Development Party 
(AKP) is under increasing pressure from an economy that has 
begun to show weakening in response to the global economic 
slowdown, including a marked up-tick in unemployment and 
drop-off in exports.  Addressing these problems, Erdogan 
reshuffled his cabinet earlier this month, reinforcing his 
economic team and naming his senior foreign policy advisor 
Ahmet Davutoglu as the new Foreign Minister. 
 
Middle East 
----------- 
¶4. (SBU) Under AKP leadership, Turkey has endeavored to play 
a constructive role in the Middle East, including support for 
Annapolis, the Lebanese presidential elections, and indirect 
Israel-Syria talks.  During the Gaza crisis, PM Erdogan 
traveled to Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt in an 
attempt to help coalesce a consolidated Arab position.  The 
humanitarian crisis in Gaza struck a chord with Turks across 
the political spectrum, and criticism of Israeli actions was 
fierce and vocal.  Some Turks, however, expressed concern 
over Erdogan's close identification of Turkish interests with 
Hamas.  A February 6-7 visit to Ankara by Palestinian 
Authority Mahmoud Abbas and concerted effort by Turkish 
officials has limited damage to the Turkey-Israel 
relationship.  GOT officials continue to work to help achieve 
intra-Palestinian reconciliation and to repair bilateral ties 
with Tel Aviv. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  The GOT, meanwhile, is eager to resume indirect 
Israel-Syria talks.  The Turkish government facilitated four 
rounds of indirect talks in Istanbul between the Syrian and 
Israeli delegations aimed at laying the ground work for 
future direct negotiations.  A fifth unofficial session 
occurred in December during PM Olmert's Ankara visit when 
Erdogan placed several calls to Asad.  At a joint press 
conference in Syria earlier this month, President Gul and 
Asad called for the indirect talks to resume and the GOI to 
name a negotiator. 
 
Armenia 
------- 
¶6. (SBU) The USG has worked hard to encourage candid 
discussion in Turkey of the tragedy suffered by ethnic 
Armenians during World War I.  The Turkish and Armenian 
governments have made impressive progress in their 
negotiations on normalizing bilateral relations and opening 
the border.  Turkey's public would react strongly to a 
Congressional resolution labeling this tragedy a "genocide," 
which would set back the efforts of those in Turkey calling 
for comprehensive examination of the history and normalized 
Turkish-Armenian relations.  We are urging the GOT to move 
forward to normalize relations with Armenia as soon as 
possible.  In its efforts to reach out to Yerevan, Ankara has 
also encouraged Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve 
Nagorno-Karabakh along the parameters of the OSCE Minsk Group 
"Basic Principles." 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
¶7. (SBU) Turkey has consistently supported Coalition efforts 
in Afghanistan.  The GOT has pledged over USD 200 million in 
humanitarian assistance, mostly for the reconstruction and 
operation of schools and hospitals.  Despite its significant 
military and public contributions, Turkey maintains 
restrictive caveats on the use of its ISAF forces which limit 
their ability to be deployed outside the Kabul area in 
support of the ISAF commander.  We are asking Turkey and 
other allies to contribute additional resources to ISAF, 
including helicopters, troops, and training teams.  Turkey 
has also used it historically close relations with 
Afghanistan and Pakistan to actively promote dialogue and 
cooperation, hosting two trilateral summits, the most recent 
in Ankara in April 2009 with the participation of Presidents 
Karzai and Zadari, their foreign ministers, and chiefs of 
military staff. 
 
EU Accession 
------------ 
¶8. (SBU) Turkey formally became a candidate state for the 
European Union in 2004, but has aspired to membership much 
longer.  Technical harmonization with EU regulations on many 
subjects has continued, even through parliamentary and 
presidential elections in 2007 contributed to the GOT's 
inability to enact reforms on several high-level political 
issues.  Attempts by the opposition to close down the AKP and 
ban its leaders from politics dominated much of 2008 and 
provincial and municipal elections in 2009 hindered reforms 
linked to Turkey's long-term aspirations for EU membership. 
The Turkish public is growing increasingly leery of the EU 
venture, largely in reaction to Euro-skepticism of Turkey as 
a candidate country.  Nevertheless, the GOT pushed forward 
with some reforms in the second half of 2008, most notably on 
Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code which had earlier 
allowed prosecutors to bring cases against anyone found to 
have "insulted Turkishness."  Erdogan named a new Minister 
for EU Accession in January of this year and indicated the 
government plans to move forward with constitutional and 
other legislative reforms in 2009.  A settlement on Cyprus 
this year will be key to keeping Turkey's accession talks on 
track. 
 
PKK 
--- 
¶9. (SBU) For over 20 years, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) 
has conducted a terrorist campaign that has resulted in the 
deaths of more than 37,000 Turks and terrorists.  Since the 
end of its self-imposed five-year cease-fire in 2004, the PKK 
launched attacks against Turkey from strongholds in northern 
Iraq, killing hundreds of Turkish civilians, military, and 
foreigners, including roughly 170 in 2007 alone.  Following 
attacks in late 2007 that clamed over 100 dead, wounded, and 
captured, the Turkish Parliament authorized the GOT to launch 
cross-border operations against PKK camps in northern Iraq. 
After a November 2007 meeting with Erdogan, then-President 
Bush to provide Turkey with intelligence to support military 
action against the PKK in northern Iraq.  As a result, the 
public mood toward the U.S. began a slow, but perceptible 
upswing, further boosted by the election of President Obama 
and his subsequent visit here, along with that of Secretary 
Clinton. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey 
 
SILLIMAN