VZCZCXRO5490
RR RUEHDA
DE RUEHAK #0711 1351314
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151314Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9678
INFO RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 5749
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 3847

UNCLAS ANKARA 000711 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINR ECON ELAB EUN PGOV PREL SMIG TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: RESPONSE ON FINANCIAL CRISIS' EFFECT ON 
EUROPEAN MIGRATION (C-RE9-00762) 
 
REF: STATE 43864 
 
(U) This cable is sensitive but unclassified - please protect 
accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) The following is Turkey's response to reftel 
information request.  Answers are keyed to the questions in 
reftel. 
 
¶2. (SBU) B.1. To date, the drop in remittances to Turkey -- 
most of which originate in Western Europe -- following the 
onset of the economic crisis has not had a noticeable impact 
on the Turkish economy.  In 2008, remittances totaled USD 
1.35 billion.  For the period of January-March 2009, inflows 
were around USD 204 million, down from USD 352 million during 
the same period in 2008 (some of this may be due simply to a 
stronger dollar against both the euro and the lira).  The 
effect of this drop on the larger economy has been muted, in 
large part because Turkey's imports have been falling faster 
than its exports, leading to an overall improvement in the 
current account deficit (estimated to be 2% of GDP for 2009 
vice 6.5% for 2008).  This has reduced the importance of 
remittances as a source of foreign exchange.  The absolute 
amount of the three-month drop (USD 148 million) is also 
negligible as a percentage of Turkey's GDP over the same 
period. 
 
¶3. (SBU) B.2. There have not been any official reports of a 
large influx of returning migrants, although there is 
anecdotal evidence that a small number of Turkish workers 
have returned from Europe.  Workers' remittance accounts at 
the Central Bank (USD 12.6 billion as of May 15, 2009) saw 
large withdrawals in August (USD 330 million) and September 
(USD 232 million), presumably due to returning workers 
drawing down their accounts.  The rate of withdrawal from 
these accounts eased sharply in the following months to more 
normal levels, however, and overall outflows for 2008 were no 
higher than for 2007 (around USD 2.4 billion). 
 
¶4. (SBU) B.2. (cont'd) Several Turkish construction companies 
operating in Russia have also either closed or suspended 
their operations and their Turkish employees have returned as 
a result.  This has provided a minor contribution to higher 
unemployment figures, which reached 16.1% in March 2009 (an 
11.9% YOY increase).  Urban unemployment in March climbed to 
19.8%, a 14.2% YOY increase.  Both of these figures are 
record highs.  The GOT's efforts to date have focused on 
overall job creation/retention and have not been specifically 
focused on returning migrants.  Expectations are that the job 
creation rate will increase over the summer months due to 
seasonal factors, especially in the agricultural and service 
(e.g. tourism) sectors.  In the medium term, however, the 
official forecast of a 3.9% decline in GDP for 2009 (and 
private sector forecasts as high as -7%) indicates that job 
creation is unlikely to keep pace with new entrants to the 
labor market (whether they are returning migrants or young 
people looking for their first jobs). 
 
¶5. (SBU) B.3. There have not been any reported instances of 
social tension from workers returning home. 
 
¶6. (SBU) B.4. The GOT has neither offered incentives to its 
citizens to return home nor taken any steps to discourage 
them from returning. 
 
¶7. (SBU) B.5. Given the small numbers involved, it is 
difficult to generalize on the reasons why Turkish workers 
may have returned.  Obviously the workers from Russia 
returned because the economic climate meant their jobs were 
no longer available, but as they only went abroad as part of 
Turkish firms' contracts for Russian construction projects 
they were not migrants in the traditional sense of the word. 
 
¶8. (SBU) B.6. There has not been a major influx of returning 
workers, so the additional strain on public sector services 
has been negligible. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey 
 
JEFFREY