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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000643 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: PM ERDOGAN SHAKES UP HIS CABINET, TILTING 
ISLAMIST 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 485 
     ¶B. ANKARA 150 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James Jeffrey, for reasons 1.4(b,d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  To shore up support for his ruling Justice 
and Development Party (AKP) following its disappointing 
performance in March 29 local elections, Prime Minister Recep 
Tayyip Erdogan announced May 1 an extensive overhaul of his 
cabinet, appointing nine new ministers, dismissing eight, and 
re-assigning 10.  To appeal to AKP's pious voter base and 
fend off the rise of the Islamist Saadet Party, Erdogan 
appointed former Speaker Bulent Arinc as a Deputy Prime 
Minister, and several other individuals steeped in the 
Islamic Milli Gorus (National View) philosophy.  Erdogan 
appointed former Foreign Minister Ali Babacan as the new 
State Minister in charge of the economy, to allow for one 
minister "to manage the economy with a single hand."  Erdogan 
also appointed his former chief foreign policy advisor and 
architect of AKP foreign policy Ahmet Davutoglu as Foreign 
Minister -- the first AKP minister who is not a member of 
Parliament.  End summary. 
 
------------------------ 
Key Cabinet Appointments 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Prime Minister Erdogan announced extensive changes to 
his cabinet on May 1, appointing nine new Ministers, 
dismissing eight, and shifting the positions of 10.  The 
changes were widely expected following AKP's relative defeat 
in March 29 local elections (ref A).  The new cabinet has 26 
members, up from 25 ministers previously.  A list of the 
entire cabinet is included at the bottom of this message. 
Highlights of the new cabinet include: 
 
-- State Minister and Deputy PM Bulent Arinc.  A member of 
the conservative-religious "Milli Gorus" (National View) wing 
of the party, Arinc has a reputation for being outspoken and 
angered secularists with his statements in favor of the 
headscarf and about the Turkish military on various occasions 
during his term as parliament speaker (2002-2007).  Arinc is 
also one of the very few members of the government who has 
attempted to challenge Erdogan either publicly or in Cabinet 
meetings.  Arinc's comeback is probably an attempt to counter 
the growing electoral appeal of the Islamist Saadet Party 
leading up to 2011 general elections.  However, his legal 
background suggests that he may have a hand in crafting or 
presenting AKP's expected constitutional amendment packages. 
The cabinet is expected to specify the portfolios of Arinc 
and other State Ministers this week. 
 
-- Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.  An academic 
known as the behind-the-scenes architect of Turkish foreign 
policy, Davutoglu has been extremely influential with both 
Erdogan and Gul since AKP came to power.  He came into the 
spotlight after his secret meetings with Hamas leader Halid 
Mesal in the winter of 2006.   While many MFA diplomats have 
resented Davutoglu's strong influence on Turkey's external 
affairs, some have welcomed the appointment of the 
theoretician with direct access to the top.  Davutoglu will 
be the first non-MP to serve as an AKP minister. 
 
-- DPM and State Minister for the Economy Ali Babacan.  When 
announcing the new cabinet, Erdogan said that he wanted the 
economy minister to be "much more powerful and manage the 
economy with a single hand."  The position is a promotion for 
Babacan, who is regarded as having performed well as 
Economics Minister from 2002-2007, prior to his appointment 
as Foreign Minister, where he received mixed reviews.  In his 
new role, Babacan will have overall control of all economic 
institutions, including the Treasury, state-owned banks, the 
Capital Markets Board and banking watchdog BDDK.  Unlike 
2002, when he led Turkey out of the 2001 economic crisis, 
Babacan will not have a recovery plan and IMF deal already in 
place that he only needs to execute, and the export-led 
growth model that worked then will not work this time. 
Taking on this role at a time when the Turkish economy and 
Turkey's major export markets are heading into a recession 
will be a major challenge.  His being "kicked upstairs" was 
seen by some as a signal of an internal AKP influence shift  
from Babacan mentor Gul to Erdogan.  But given the importance 
of Babacan's new role, Davutoglu's sustained dominance of 
foreign policy formulation, and the continued strength of the 
"Gul wing," we do not accept this interpretation. 
 
-- Justice Minister Sadullah Ergin.  Formerly an AKP 
parliamentary deputy group chair (whip), Ergin is an Erdogan 
loyalist who is close to the conservative wing of the party. 
Ergin has been an architect of AKP's proposed constitutional 
changes. 
 
-- State Minister and DPM Cemil Cicek.  In retaining a DPM 
position, this former Justice Minister and GOT spokesman has 
demonstrated that he is still a political heavyweight.  Cicek 
is the only cabinet member left who joined AKP from the 
Motherland Party (ANAP). 
 
-- Labor and Social Security Minster Omer Dincer.  The former 
PM U/S has attracted attention for his conservative-religious 
views, which were on display during a 1995 speech when he 
suggested the Turkish Republic was worn out and should be 
replaced with an Islamic state structure.  Dincer also faced 
allegations of plagiarism for a book he wrote in 1996, 
leading the Higher Education Council (YOK) to revoke his 
right to teach at a university. 
 
-- Education Minister Nimet Cubukcu.  An Erdogan loyalist, 
she received mixed reviews from women's rights organizations 
for her prior role as Women's Affairs Minister.  Erdogan 
likely elevated her, and named Selma Aliye Kavaf as State 
Minister, to fulfill repeated promises to give women a larger 
role in the party.  Erdogan is probably also trying to shore 
up support from female voters who, according to some 
pollsters, turned out in less-than-expected numbers for AKP 
in local elections.  We have been told that AKP's internal 
polling shows falling support among women voters, in 
particular.  Cubukcu is the first woman to hold the Education 
Minister position. 
 
-- Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yildiz.  A 
Kayseri MP and the AKP's energy advisor, Yildiz was long 
rumored to be the next energy minister.  Yildiz has better 
relations with Azerbaijan than former minister Guler did (ref 
B), but will face the same problem as his predecessor in 
trying to get the GOT to speak with one voice on energy 
policy. 
 
-- Culture and Tourism Minister Ertugrul Gunay.  Many 
expected Erdogan to replace this former CHPer who has not 
been afraid to speak his mind.  He recently provoked the PM's 
ire when he told journalists that the government had 
overreached during the most recent Ergenekon sweeps.  Keeping 
Gunay on as a minister is a gesture to capture liberals' 
votes. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
AKP Hopes Fresh Blood Will Bring New Energy 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) AKP officials tell us that the new names will infuse 
energy into a party that had appeared "worn out" to voters in 
March 29 local elections.  AKP Vice Chair Ismael Safi said 
the changes would "begin a new chapter for AKP as we look 
toward 2011 general elections."  The cabinet reshuffle is the 
first phase in a larger party shake-up, according to AKP 
parliamentary deputy group leader Bekir Bozdag, who told us 
that the PM would make significant changes to the party 
administrative leadership during AKP's general party congress 
in September.  Bozdag also noted that further change is 
likely to come in September, when the term of the current 
Parliament Speaker Koksal Toptan ends, as well as the terms 
of the parliamentary committee chairs and party deputy group 
chairs. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Comment:  Shoring Up AKP's Islamic Flank 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Erdogan, known to prefer stability in his cabinet, 
avoided making major changes until AKP's poor performance in 
local elections left him no other option.  He was stung that  
AKP failed to meet his earlier expectations, and has been 
even more sobered, we understand, that AKP's internal polling 
shows the party has dropped down to 32 percent, with even 
lower numbers among women and young voters.  He appears to 
have carefully weighed many factors in constructing the 
cabinet that he will take into 2011 general elections.  While 
the cabinet is composed mainly of Erdogan loyalists, the PM 
clearly took into account the desires of President Gul by 
appointing several well known Gul loyalists, including State 
Minister Babacan, Interior Minister Besir Atalay, State 
Minister Mehmet Aydin, and Energy Minister Taner Yildiz. 
Some Erdogan loyalists, such as Mehmet Ali Sahin, Nazim 
Ekren, and Huseyin Celik were excluded from the cabinet, but 
may be compensated in the coming weeks with now-vacant AKP 
parliamentary leadership jobs, or with strong positions in 
the AKP party organization at the party's September congress. 
 The return of Ali Babacan to be at the helm of the economy 
indicates that he is still in good standing with Erdogan and 
that, despite his dismissive rhetoric during the election 
campaign, Erdogan recognizes the seriousness of the economic 
situation. 
 
¶5. (C) In a likely reaction to the strong performance of 
Islamist Saadet Party in local elections and much speculation 
about the ability of Saadet's young leader Numan Kurtulmus to 
chip into AKP's political base, Erdogan crafted a more 
conservative-religious cabinet.  He selected individuals who 
adhere to the "National View" doctrine of Mecmettin Erbakan, 
the founding father of the political Islam movement in 
Turkey, such as Bulent Arinc, Omer Dincer, and Sadullah 
Ergin, while ousting more liberal ministers like former DPM 
Nazim Ekren, State Minister Murat Basesgioglu, and State 
Minister Kursad Tuzmen.  In doing so, Erdogan seems to have 
walked back, if slightly, from his statements when AKP first 
came to power that, "We have changed and developed.  We have 
taken off the National View shirt." 
 
--------------- 
The New Cabinet 
--------------- 
 
¶6. (U) The full cabinet: 
 
-State Minister and DPM Cemil Cicek 
-State Minister and DPM Bulent Arinc 
-State Minister and DPM Ali Babacan (Economy coordinator) 
-State Minister Egemen Bagis (EU chief negotiator) 
-State Minister Hayati Yazici 
-State Minister Mehmet Aydin 
-State Minister Faruk Nafiz Ozak 
-State Minister Mehmet Zafer Caglayan 
-State Minister Faruk Celik 
-State Minister Cevdet Yilmaz 
-State Minister Selma Aliyet Kavaf (Women's affairs) 
-Justice Minister Sadullah Ergin 
-National Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul 
-Interior Minister Besir Atalay 
-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu 
-Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek 
-National Education Minister Nimet Cubukcu 
-Public Works and Housing Minister Mustafa Demir 
-Health Minister Recep Akdag 
-Transportation Minister Binali Yildirim 
-Agriculture Minister Mehmet Mehdi Eder 
-Labor and Social Security Minister Omer Dincer 
-Industry and Trade Minister Nihat Ergun 
-Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yildiz 
-Culture and Tourism Minister Ertegrul Gunay 
-Environment and Forestry Minister Veysel Eroglu 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey 
 
Jeffrey