VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0554/01 1280841
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 080841Z MAY 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1535
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9161
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0596

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000554 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused May 8 news 
coverage on former President Chen Shui-bian, who protested after a 
court hearing Thursday that his detention is illegal and politically 
motivated; on the massive May 17 anti-government protest planned by 
the DPP; and on Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chairman P. K. 
Chiang, who tendered his resignation Monday, and which President Ma 
declined to accept.  In terms of editorials and commentaries, an 
editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
criticized the policy of the Ma Ying-jeou Administration and of the 
United States to engage with Beijing.  The article said "[T]he utter 
failure of the US' policy was apparent during U.S. Secretary of 
State Hillary Clinton's February visit to Beijing, when she said 
issues such as human rights couldn't be allowed to 'interfere' with 
the tackling of economic problems.  Clinton's reluctance to bring up 
issues unpalatable to Chinese leaders seems to indicate that, 
instead of changing China, engagement has produced the opposite 
effect."  An editorial in the conservative, pro-unification, 
English-language "China Post" discussed a naval confrontation 
incident between the United States and China in the Yellow Sea last 
Friday and Beijing's strategy toward the United States.  The article 
said "China's strategy seems to be working ... the U.S. is inclined 
to see China more as a partner than a competitor.  Such a situation 
could pose a great challenge for Taiwan."  End summary. 
 
A) "Engagement Is Not Changing China" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (5/8): 
 
"President Ma Ying-jeou has said several times that he believes 
Taiwan's democracy can act as a positive example for China and that 
the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) will only consider unification 
if and when Beijing embraces universal suffrage.  Ma's theory is not 
unique. It is almost identical to that of the US government, which 
for many years has trumpeted its policy of engagement with Beijing 
as a way of changing China's authoritarian system, leading to its 
eventual democratization.  But were it to be ranked on its 
effectiveness so far, the US policy would most definitely receive a 
failing grade. ... 
 
"The utter failure of the U.S.' policy was apparent during U.S. 
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's February visit to Beijing, when 
she said issues such as human rights couldn't be allowed to 
'interfere' with the tackling of economic problems.  Clinton's 
reluctance to bring up issues unpalatable to Chinese leaders seems 
to indicate that instead of changing China, engagement has produced 
the opposite effect. ...  If a country as powerful as the U.S. has, 
to all intents and purposes, admitted defeat in its attempts to 
influence China, it does not take a genius to work out what the 
consequences will be for Taiwan with the Ma administration's 
accelerating rapprochement." 
 
B) "Learning from Sun Tzu's 'The Art of War'" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (5/8): 
 
"Last Friday marked the latest in a string of naval confrontations 
between China and the U.S., when, according to the Pentagon, two 
ships from China's Bureau of Fisheries Patrol came 'dangerously 
close' (within 27 meters) to the surveillance ship USNS Victorious 
operating in the Yellow Sea. ...  The recent showdowns between the 
so-called G-2 nations are seen as indicators of China's increasing 
confidence in its naval might and Washington's reluctance to 
escalate situations in a time when it needs Beijing on board to 
tackle issues such as the financial crisis, global warming, and 
North Korea's arms race. ...  While China's naval power is still far 
behind that of the U.S., China's recent clashes with the U.S. are 
more than simple calls for attention, and should be regarded with 
caution. ... 
 
"In other words, Beijing opted not to overpower the U.S. Navy, but 
to obtain the capability of area denial.  By showcasing its nuclear 
submarines and its growing confidence in the seas, Beijing had 
averted the U.S.' attention out of East Asia, which is in line with 
the oldest of Chinese military wisdoms, Sun Tzu's Art of War: 'When 
your opponent is in superior strength, evade it.'  Other 
'shashoujian' (the assassin's mace) such as China's ability to smash 
orbiting satellites and its cyber-warfare capability (though Beijing 
denies its development of such technologies) are all aimed at 
disrupting U.S. military communications and making it difficult to 
coordinate an operation in East Asia.  For now, China's strategy 
seems to be working.  Facing a global financial crisis and two 
ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. is inclined to see 
China more as a partner than a competitor.  Such a situation could 
pose a great challenge for Taiwan. 
 
"While Beijing and Taipei seem to be on their way to diplomatic 
detente, the option of attacking the island by force has never left 
 
the table.  Even best friends fight sometimes, so while the people 
of Taiwan should hope for improving relations, they should not leave 
their fate to the mercy of a heavily-armed big brother.  The long 
term survival of the ROC should not be assumed, but earned. 
Taiwan's military should learn from China and develop its own 
area-denial capabilities to prepare for the unthinkable.  These 
include capabilities to create surprise and opportunities, such as 
better intelligence and cyber-warfare.  After all, one of the best 
ways to maintain peace and promote camaraderie among friends, 
ironically, is to make dispute an ugly option." 
 
YOUNG