VZCZCXRO6964
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0315/01 1381218
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 181218Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5148
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000315 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IV
SUBJECT: PRAISE AND SKEPTICISM ACCOMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT OF 
ELECTION DATE 
 
REF: ABIDJAN 300 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  The Government of Cote d'Ivoire has 
announced that the first round of the presidential election 
will be held on November 29, 2009.  This is generally 
considered a positive development demonstrating that pressure 
 from the international community to hold elections bore 
fruit.  However, there is skepticism about whether this date 
will be observed given the many tasks still to be concluded 
including: completion of the identification/voter 
registration process, compilation of an electoral list that 
all key political parties accept, and disarmament completed 
two months before the election.  A Permanent Consultative 
Framework (CPC) meeting will take place May 18 in Ouagadougou 
to review the steps needed to keep the electoral calendar on 
track.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Prime Minister Soro announced on May 14 that the 
Council of Ministers had adopted a decree proposed by the 
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) establishing November 
29, 2009 as the date for the first round of the presidential 
election.  The decree provides that the polls will be open 
that day, a Sunday, from seven a.m. to five p.m. The decree 
also provides that if no candidate obtains an absolute 
majority in the first round, a second round will be held 
fifteen days after the proclamation by the Constitutional 
Council of the final results of the first round.  The two 
candidates who obtain the largest numbers of votes will 
participate in the second round.  Victory in the second round 
will be by a simple majority.  This is in keeping with the 
provisions of the Electoral Code adopted in 2000. 
 
¶3. (U) The decree implicitly recognizes that this will be a 
special post-crisis election by referring to an executive 
order of May 5, 2005 that provides that the candidates of all 
political parties that signed the Linas-Marcoussis peace 
agreement will be eligible to run in this election.  (This 
should lay to rest any controversy over Henri Konan Bedie's 
eligibility to run because of his age.)   The decree also 
refers to an executive order of April 14, 2008 that modifies 
some provisions of the 2000 Electoral Code for this 
particular election.  For example, the new Article 52 
requires the CEI to notify the UN SRSG and the OPA 
Facilitator of all presidential candidacies. 
 
REACTIONS MOSTLY POSITIVE BUT SKEPTICISM STILL HIGH 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Public reactions to the election date announcement 
have been overwhelmingly positive although skepticism remains 
high behind the scenes.  Prime Minister Soro said the 
November 29 date was "realistic."  FPI party president Affi 
N'Guessan said the date is "reasonable" and called for this 
date to be respected.  RDR party president Alassane Ouattara 
said he had no objection to the date.  PDCI party 
vice-chairman Djedje Mady was one of the few to publicly 
voice skepticism, observing that this is not the first time a 
date has been set.  Mady said he had doubts about whether the 
November date would be respected.  Reactions from the 
international community have been positive.  UNOCI issued a 
statement congratulating the government of Cote d'Ivoire for 
setting a date but stressing the need to push ahead with 
reunification to ensure the election can be held. 
 
CPC TO REVIEW NEXT STEPS 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The CPC, which comprises Presidents Gbagbo and 
Compaore, Prime Minister Soro, Alassane Ouattara, and Henri 
Bedie, will meet May 18 in Ouagadougou.  They will reportedly 
review each stage of the electoral process that must take 
place between now and November 29.  The first step will 
clearly be completion of the identification/voter 
registration process.  Catch-up sessions to reach individuals 
who did not register during the initial phase (see reftel) 
are currently being conducted.  Some registration centers 
have never opened.  Embassy understands that these centers 
will operate from May 21 through June 4. Registration of 
Ivoirians overseas is currently scheduled to be conducted 
from June 11 to June 28.  In recent months, neither the CEI 
(Independent Electoral Commission) nor the FPI have 
demonstrated a sense of urgency about moving the registration 
process forward.  Deadlines for completing the process have 
repeatedly been missed and new pools of voters identified. 
For example, the CEI has apparently just realized that many 
prisoners who are waiting trial retain the right to vote.  It 
estimates that 6,000 prisoners in Abidjan's central prison, 
not to mention an unknown number in thirty-two other prisons 
nationwide, may need to be reached through the identification 
process. 
 
 
ABIDJAN 00000315  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The CPC will also reportedly discuss reunification 
of the country and the status of the deployment of the 'mixed 
brigades' that will ultimately provide security for the 
elections.  Anecdotal reports indicate the deployments have 
foundered over logistical issues such as where FDS soldiers 
headed to the north are to be housed, etc. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment.  The announcement of an election date is a 
positive development that indicates the government is still 
responsive to international pressure.  However, skepticism 
that the November 29 date will be respected is widespread 
among Ivoirians as well as within the diplomatic community. 
The outcome of the CPC meeting in Ouagadougou will be an 
important indicator of how confident the political parties 
are about this date. 
NESBITT