VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHVB #0229/01 1191345
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 291345Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9178
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000229 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS: RULING HDZ LIKELY TO AVOID A 
REBUKE FROM VOTERS 
 
REF: ZAGREB 0005 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The local elections on May 17 (with 
second round runoffs as needed two weeks later) are likely to 
provide both of Croatia,s two main parties--the ruling 
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the main opposition 
Social Democratic Party (SDP)--with a basis to claim 
"victory."  Despite hard economic times and voter discontent 
with the Prime Minister, the HDZ is unlikely to face 
catastrophic losses and may even make some modest gains. 
While the SDP will capture the mayorships of many of the most 
important cities, the HDZ will likely do well at the level of 
the powerful county prefects--reflecting the HDZ,s strong 
support among rural voters.  This election will also continue 
to winnow out many smaller parties in Croatia. It is likely 
that only two smaller parties--the Croatian Peasant Party 
(HSS) and the Croatian People's Party (HNS)--will show any 
national appeal.  END SUMMARY 
 
HDZ BUILDS COALITIONS; WELL POSITIONED FOR COUNTY PREFECTS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The HDZ has leveraged its relationship at the 
national level with its main coalition partner, the Croatian 
Peasants Party (HSS), to strike local coalition deals with 
the HSS, and several smaller parties, in 18 of 20 counties. 
This coalition will likely enable these parties to retain the 
12 prefectures (8 HDZ, 4 HSS) that they currently hold, and 
perhaps even add one more.  The HDZ  s success in reaching 
local-level partnerships with the HSS--which in the past was 
much more likely to join with the SDP at the 
local-level--indicates that the HSS increasingly sees its 
partnership with the HDZ as an advantage for doling out perks 
to its base.  The HDZ,s coalitions have less appeal, 
however, in Croatia,s urban centers.  The HDZ candidates in 
the four largest cities are likely to lose in the first round 
of voting, and only two--Zadar and Karlovac--of Croatia,s 
eight largest cities are forecast to elect HDZ mayors. 
 
SDP: MILANOVIC EXERTS CONTROL AND PROMOTES NEW FACES 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In stark contrast to the HDZ, the SDP has focused 
less on building coalitions with other parties,  and more on 
reforming its local party branches.  SDP President Zoran 
Milanovic has personally picked many local-level 
candidates--particularly mayoral candidates.  This has 
produced several fresh faces among SDP candidates, but also 
made it harder for the SDP to reach out to potential 
coalition partners, who wanted some influence on candidate 
selection.  In the end, the SDP was largely unable to form 
coalitions with the HSS or many other of the smaller parties 
represented in the national parliament.  While the SDP can 
count on the support of the Croatian People,s Party (HNS) in 
many races, this relationship has become strained--the HNS 
opposes the re-election of the SDP,s incumbent mayor of 
Zagreb.  Nonetheless, the SDP is likely to reaffirm its 
traditional strength in urban areas, and may even win power 
from the HDZ in Split, Croatia,s second largest city and the 
hometown of Prime Minister Ivo Sanader. 
 
MANY SMALLER PARTIES FACING BLEAK FUTURE 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Several smaller Croatian parties, still reeling from 
electoral setbacks in the 2007 general election, are likely 
to face another blow in these elections.  The Croatian Party 
of Rights (HSP)--a right wing party with one seat in 
parliament--faces an uphill battle in nearly every race and 
is likely to win only the mayorship of the city of Slavonski 
Brod and a handful of assembly seats in a few cities across 
eastern Croatia.  This effectively will diminish the HSP from 
a national level party to a marginal regional player. 
Similarly, the HSLS--part of the coalition government but 
with only two seats in parliament--faces a tough mayoral race 
in Bjelovar, one of the two party strongholds.   HSLS vice 
president Ivan Cehok is positioned to retain his mayoral seat 
in Varazdin, but he will do so only by running as an 
independent and naming numerous non-party members to his 
ticket. 
 
¶5. (SBU) There are few exceptions to increasing dominance of 
the two main parties, the HDZ and SDP, in Croatian politics. 
The HSS and HNS will remain the only small parties with a 
nation-wide presence or organization, although the HNS's 
appeal has taken a hit recently because of its current 
leadership (SEPTEL). Two regional parties will also do well 
in their own fiefs.  The Istrian Democratic 
Party--traditionally closely aligned with the SDP--should 
retain its electoral stranglehold on the Istrian peninsula 
and win the mayor of Pula and the county prefect of Istria. 
 
The Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja 
(HDSSB)--a right wing party formed by former HDZ heavyweight, 
and indicted war criminal, Branimir Glavas--is likely to win 
the mayor,s race in Osijek and potentially hold on to the 
county prefect,s position as well. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The upcoming local elections, the first to allow the 
direct election of mayors and county prefects (REFTEL), 
contain several tight races--such as mayoral races in Zagreb, 
Split, and Osijek, and county prefect races in Zagreb, 
Osijek, and Pozega.  The opposition SDP should do well, but 
perhaps not as well as it might have expected, given the 
economic hard times.  Given that these are Croatia,s final 
elections before the presidential ballot set for January 
2010, all four main national parties--HDZ, SDP, HNS, 
HSS--will be looking closely at the local results in search 
of momentum for their eventual presidential candidates.  END 
COMMENT. 
BRADTKE