VZCZCXRO2851
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #0286/01 1200702
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300702Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8982
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEADWW/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000286 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958; N/A 
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KPAO KMDR KDEM AM
 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION:  Armenia - Turkey Negotiations, the Long 
Road Ahead 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) Both print and TV media extensively covered the April 23 
joint "road map" statement by Turkish, Armenian and Swiss foreign 
ministries on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. 
President Sargsian and FM Nalbandian made strong public statements 
of support for the proposal, which were widely carried.  Media 
widely reported Vice President Biden and Secretary Clinton's 
contacts with GOAM officials on this issue.  The opposition Armenian 
National Congress confined its criticism to the fact that the 
proposed deal with Turkey remains secret, and chose to deploy only 
its second-tier spokesmen.  The more stridently nationalist Armenian 
Revolutionary Federation (ARF; aka Dashnaktsutyun) and opposition 
Heritage Party were most harshly critical of opening to Turkey. 
Media reports focused on 1) U.S. government reaction to the road map 
2) Armenian pro-government response and 3) opposition demands for 
the immediate disclosure of the plan and the ARF decision to 
withdraw from the government coalition over it.  The statement's 
timing, made on the eve of the commemoration date of mass killings 
and deportations of Armenians from the Ottoman Empire in 1915, also 
caused speculation.  Press finally focused on Turkey's potential 
role in the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations and Azerbaijan's reaction 
to the road map. END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
U.S. OFFICIALS' CALLS WIDELY REPORTED 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Both print and TV media extensively covered the April 23 
joint "road map" statement by Turkish, Armenian and Swiss foreign 
ministries on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. 
Reporting on the U.S. government reaction to the road map was 
positive.  Center-right Azg, pro-government Hayots Ashkhar, and 
pro-government Respublika Armenii reported that the U.S. State 
Department issued a press release supporting the normalization of 
relations.  Hayots Ashkhar, opposition daily Aravot, pro-government 
Novoye Vremya, pro-government Golos Armenii, government paper 
Hayastani Hanrapetutiun and Azg also reported that Vice President 
Joe Biden reaffirmed the strong U.S. support for efforts to improve 
Armenian-Turkish relations in a phone call with President Sargsian 
late last Thursday, the second call in four days.  Hayastani 
Hanrapetutiun and Azg noted that on Monday, Foreign Minister 
Nalbandian held a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State 
Hillary Clinton.  Clinton was reported to describe as "historic" a 
Turkish-Armenian statement on the normalization of bilateral 
relations. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
SARGSIAN REAFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR TURKEY PROCESS 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Pro-government officials publically lauded Armenia and 
Turkey's announcement, hailing it as a major breakthrough in 
regional conflict negotiation.  All media outlets covered a 
statement given by President Sargsian during a National Security 
Council session.  Sargsian is quoted, "It's natural we will start 
with the process of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue and with the joint 
statements made two days ago.  Our position is rather clear.  There 
cannot be closed borders in Europe in the 21st century." 
 
------------------------------ 
OFF COURSE, IN HOSTILE WATERS? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Opposition leaders demanded the immediate disclosure of the 
road map, criticizing the agreement as "secretive," and that secrecy 
is "not in the public's interest."  Leader of the People's Party, 
Stepan Demirchian, stated at a press conference on Monday that it is 
"necessary that the authorities declassify the so-called road map." 
RFE/RL reports that Armenia's leadership remained "tight-lipped" on 
Friday about details of a potentially ground-breaking agreement with 
Turkey, despite growing pressure from the domestic opposition 
concerned about its possible implications.   The Heritage Party and 
the Armenian National Congress also demanded the "immediate 
disclosure" of the road map. 
 
¶5. (SBU) All press covered the ARF's (aka Dashnaktsutyun) decision 
to withdraw from the government coalition due to disagreements over 
the road map.  Citing the ARF's spokesperson, they write about the 
party's "insurmountable fundamental disagreements" with President 
Sargsian over his "conciliatory" policy toward Turkey.  In a written 
statement published in all newspapers, ARF leadership reiterated the 
nationalist party's condemnation of the road map.  RFE/RL reports 
that the dramatic move followed a Saturday meeting between Sargsian 
 
YEREVAN 00000286  002 OF 004 
 
 
and two ARF leaders, Hrant Markarian and Armen Rustamian.  According 
to the latter, Sargsian briefed them on the essence of the still 
unpublicized road map. "The president's explanations did not satisfy 
us," Rustamian said on Monday. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Media extensively covered the mixed reaction to ARF's 
decision to withdraw from the coalition.  In a joint statement 
released on Monday, the Republican Party and its two remaining 
coalition partners, the Prosperous Armenia and Orinats Yerkir 
Parties said they "respect" ARF's decision but believe that the 
rapprochement with Turkey is good for Armenia. "That policy will not 
undermine efforts at greater international recognition of the 
'genocide' or lead to more Armenian concessions to Azerbaijan," 
added the statement.  Prosperous Armenia Party leader, Gagik 
Tsarukian, not in line with his party's statement, told journalists 
he was "highly skeptical" about the success of the Turkish-Armenian 
dialogue. "My personal view is that Turkey will not open the 
border," he stated.  Tsarukian, who is believed to be close to the 
more hard-line former President Robert Kocharian, also said that 
ARF's pullout will "weaken" the ruling coalition.  The Heritage 
Party championed ARF's decision.  "Welcome to the opposition!" its 
top leader, Raffi Hovannisian, told RFE/RL. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Pro-government leaders responded to the decision by stating 
that the ARF is a weak party with a small voter base.  Galust 
Sahakian, the Republican Party's parliamentary leader denied that 
ARF was kept in the dark about details of the negotiations.  Armen 
Ashotian, another senior Republican lawmaker, claimed that 
negotiations were only a "pretext for ARF to leave the government 
and try to win more votes in the next elections."  The leader of the 
People's party, Tigran Karapetyan, stated at a press conference, 
"The ARF has to leave the coalition, otherwise it will disappear as 
a party." 
 
------------------------------ 
LEADING WITH A MORAL COMPASS? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) The timing of the road map's announcement, released on the 
eve of the commemoration date of mass killings and deportations of 
Armenians from the Ottoman Empire in 1915, led to speculations about 
whether or not the "no preconditions" agreement was good for 
Armenia.  Aravot and Hayots Ashkhar stated that Vladimir Karapetyan, 
former Spokesperson of the MFA and now foreign policy spokesperson 
of the Armenian National Congress, accused the Armenian government 
of "helping Turkey in its efforts to stop the recognition of the 
'genocide."  Opposition daily Haykakan Zhamanak published the 
comments of the U.S. citizen Director of the Armenian Center for 
National and International Studies, (a think tank connected to the 
opposition Heritage Party), who named the road map "one of the most 
serious strategic mistakes of the Armenian government."  The 
newspaper also concludes that by signing this document one day 
before President Obama's much anticipated commemoration remarks, 
Turkey ensured the word "genocide" would not be used in the U.S. 
President's speech.  The ANC-affiliated opposition Peoples' Party of 
Armenia leader Stepan Demirchian said, "We support the normalization 
of Turkish-Armenian relations, but not at the expense of our 
national dignity." 
 
¶9. (SBU) Independent Arminfo news agency reported that former 
Foreign Minister of Armenia, Vartan Oskanian, said in Beirut on 
April 24 that the "readiness to open a border with an uncompromising 
neighbor is a concession."  "Stretching out the hand of cooperation 
to a government denying a crime committed by their predecessors is a 
compromise fraught with very serious consequences for our security," 
said Oskanian, who is allied with former President Kocharian.  In 
regard to the road map, he said that, "If the adoption of such a 
document on the eve of April 24 was just a coincidence, it means 
that the Armenian authorities are indifferent to the pain of their 
people.  But if they did it purposefully, based on somebody's 
proposal or even insistence, in hope that they might get something 
in exchange, it means that they have put up the 'Armenian Genocide' 
for sale, which is unacceptable." 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Armenian government gave media outlets an obviously 
different viewpoint.  Foreign Minister Nalbandian, in an interview 
given to independent Armenpress and reported on by Novoye Vremya, 
pro-government 168 Zham, Golos Armenii, Hayots Ashkhar and Hayastani 
Hanrapetutiun, stated that "President Obama's statement was a step 
forward.  That statement contains very strong points and President 
Obama used the phrase 'Mets Yeghern.'...The normalization of 
relations does not put into question the fact of the 'genocide.' 
Why can't we do what Charles de Gaulle and Adenauer did?  I am sure 
that such a day will come and the Armenian and Turkish leaderships 
will take that step."  The interview was also aired on several TV 
channels. 
 
YEREVAN 00000286  003 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) President Sargsian noted in his same speech to the NSC, 
"People say that publicizing the statement on the eve of April 24 
could hinder international recognition of the 'genocide.'  Just the 
opposite is true... The fact that the statement was made on the eve 
of April 24 proved that Turkey acknowledges the meaning of that 
day."  In an interview with "Russia Today," covered by Aravot, Azg, 
Hayastani Hanrapetutiun, Hayots Askhar, Novoya Vremya and Golos 
Armenii, Sargsian further noted, "We base ourselves on the fact that 
there has been 'genocide,' but non-recognition of that 'genocide' by 
Turkey is not viewed by us as an insurmountable obstacle for the 
establishment of relations." 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Turkey - Clearing the Way or Hidden Agenda? 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Discussion of 1915 events by media outlets has included 
analyses of Turkey's role in the region, reaction to Turkish press 
reports on the road map, and concerns over the road map's impact on 
negotiations in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.  Commenting on 
the road map, the Armenian Center for National and International 
Studies (ACNIS) statement reads in part, "Such a strategic error 
raises further questions, particularly when the security and status 
of Nagorno-Karabakh remain unresolved."  In another critical 
article, Haykakan Zhamanak concluded that "From now on, Turkey will 
not only be involved in the Karabakh conflict settlement process, 
but Ankara itself will decide the further developments." 
 
¶13. (SBU) Aravot published a front page editorial discussing 
RFE/RL's report on the road map and reaction of the Turkish press. 
RFE/RL wrote, "According to the 'Sabah' daily, Armenia will formally 
recognize its existing border with Turkey and agree to the formation 
of a joint commission of historians tasked with studying the mass 
killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.  It said historians 
from other countries could also join the commission.  Turkey will in 
return gradually establish full diplomatic relations with Armenia 
and reopen the Turkish-Armenian frontier closed it 1993."  Aravot 
and RFE/RL report that, commenting on the "Sabah" report, Armenian 
FM spokesman Tigran Balayan said, "One should trust information 
about such serious issues only if it comes from official sources." 
Aravot responded, "We would not have speculated on the points 
included in the document if they had been published officially.  The 
sooner it happens the better, as anxious doubts - especially those 
created by Turkish propaganda - will multiply."  Hayastani 
Hanrapetutiun reported that the Secretary of the National Security 
Council of Armenia, Artur Baghdasaryan, said Monday that information 
published in "Sabah" (Turkish newspaper) regarding the road map 
agreement has "nothing in common with reality." 
 
¶14. (SBU) President Sargsian, in his interview with Russian press, 
noted, "We are in favor of having relations with Turkey without any 
preconditions... Until the recent period of time, everyone was 
convinced that we have significantly progressed, but recently there 
have been statements by the Prime Minister of Turkey to the effect 
that the Armenian-Turkish relations can improve if Armenia 
compromises on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  We view this as a 
step back from the existing agreements and as a precondition being 
put forward."  He later noted during the NSC meeting, "Recently 
there have been many speculations on Armenian-Turkish relations 
being conditioned by Armenian-Azeri relations or concession on 
Karabakh as a precondition for regulation of Armenian-Turkish 
relations.  Let me repeat once again, improvement of 
Armenian-Turkish relations is quite possible and it can have a 
positive impact on the Karabakh conflict settlement, but there can 
be no preconditions." 
 
¶15. (SBU) In the most optimistic press reports, media quoted 
independent ter.am, that the first Turkish Ambassador to Armenia 
will be Ertan Tezgor, who will serve as Ambassador of Turkey to 
Georgia and Armenia.  Aravot reported that President Gul will 
discuss the road map very soon with the Turkish National Security 
Council. 
 
¶16. (SBU) Less press coverage was dedicated to Azerbaijan's reaction 
to the road map announcement.  Hayastani Hanrapetutiun and Hayots 
Ashkhar reported that the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan 
discussed the road map during a phone call on Thursday.   Aravot 
reported that Turkish President Gul stated on Friday that the 
establishment of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia 
will have a positive impact on the whole region.  Discussing Turkish 
relations with Azerbaijan, Gul said that relations between Ankara 
and Baku continue at the same level as always, "without any 
problems." 
 
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YEREVAN 00000286  004 OF 004 
 
 
COMMENT 
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¶17. (SBU) Press reporting and commentary was focused much more on 
the Armenia - Turkey road map than reaction to President Obama's 
April 24 address.  This suggests that media outlets and perhaps the 
general public at large, while concerned about resolving historical 
questions, are also heavily invested in the settlement process and 
future prospects for peace in the region. 
 
YOVANOVITCH