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UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000105 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y  (SPACE EACH PARA) 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NZ
SUBJECT: HIGH STAKES IN RACE FOR HELEN CLARK'S SEAT 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary.  On June 13, voters in the traditionally safe 
Labour Party electorate of Mt. Albert in inner-Auckland will decide 
who will succeed former Prime Minister Helen Clark as its member of 
parliament.  Of the main contenders, only the Green Party has 
selected its by-election candidate with National and Labour still to 
decide theirs.  This race has captured national attention like none 
before.  Even if the incumbent Labour Party holds the seat, it will 
likely have a substantially reduced majority which in itself would 
deliver a devastating blow to the troubled party and its low-polling 
leader Phil Goff.  For the popular governing National Party, a 
first-ever win in Mt. Albert would represent a considerable shift in 
NZ's political tectonic plates and further tighten PM John Key's 
grip on NZ politics.  End Summary. 
 
Contest for Former PM Clark's Seat 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  A June 13 by-election in the Mt. Albert electorate will 
decide who will fill the seat left vacant by former Prime Minister 
Helen Clark's resignation from parliament.  Clark, who became the 
new Administrator of United Nations Development Program on April 27, 
held a 10,350 majority at the 2008 election but the Labour Party's 
lead over the National Party in the separate party vote was a mere 
2,426.  That showed that while Clark remained personally popular, 
the choice between the main parties was much closer.  Party 
nominations have to be sent to the Chief Electoral Officer by May 
¶19.  Although the Green Party has decided on its candidate, both 
National and Labour are still involved in selecting their 
candidates. 
 
Not Your Average By-Election 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Few, if any, by-elections in recent New Zealand political 
history have generated as much interest as the Mt. Albert race. 
Clark held the seat for 27 years and the Mt. Albert voter has never 
sent anyone but a Labour candidate to Wellington.  Arguably, a safer 
Labour seat could not be found in NZ.  However, Clark's departure 
has left a huge void within Labour and in her former electorate. 
Under the new leadership of Phil Goff, Labour has struggled to 
emerge from its November 2008 election loss with much, if any, 
renewed strength.  A loss in Mt. Albert would strike a debilitating 
blow to the party's political prospects and Goff's leadership. 
Moreover, it will be massively embarrassing for the party and, of 
course, for Clark personally. 
 
Key Tries to Lower Expectations of National Win 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4. (SBU)  National is expected to fight hard to win the seat with 
Key planning to personally play a significant role in the campaign. 
Despite his party's and his own popularity, Key continues to lower 
expectations of a National win in Mt. Albert.  Key has told the 
media that he considers it a safe Labour seat.  National is expected 
to nominate freshman party list MP Melissa Lee as its candidate. 
Prior to entering parliament at the 2008 elections, South Korea-born 
Lee was an Auckland television journalist.  Highly regarded by 
National, Lee is considered a rising star in NZ politics and is 
expected to be an energetic campaigner. 
 
Former UN Official Frontrunner for Labour 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Labour leader Phil Goff remains bullish about Labour's 
prospects due to his party's history in Mt. Albert and an 
established and capable local party organization.  Although Labour 
is presently conducting an in-house candidate selection process, 
Goff and party workers have already started campaigning for the 
Labour vote on the streets of Mt. Albert.  The consensus among 
political analysts is that former UN official David Shearer will be 
Labour's most likely candidate in the Mt. Albert race.  Shearer is a 
former foreign policy adviser to Goff and enjoys the backing of his 
former boss.  Shearer left his position as Deputy Special 
Representative to Iraq for United Nations Secretary-General Ban 
Ki-moon to run in Mt. Albert.  As a former UN diplomat, Shearer 
offers the electorate a different type of Labour candidate.  The 
other party candidates come from the traditional Labour Party 
recruitment beds of union work, academia and political activism. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Shearer has, however, been out of the country since 2003, 
and local delegates, who have a say in choosing the candidate, may 
prefer someone who has been active in the electorate.  Nevertheless, 
it will come as a surprise to many if Shearer is not chosen as the 
party's standard bearer since most analysts believe he would not 
have left his plum UN job without a guarantee of running by Labour 
leadership.  Historically, Shearer has not done well in actual 
elections.  In the 2002 election, which Labour won handsomely, 
Shearer ran unsuccessfully for the Whangarei seat. 
 
Uncertainty, Hesitation Typify Labour's Selection 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Shearer was a last-minute nomination.  Until then, 
highly-regarded Labour freshman MP Phil Twyford, currently in 
parliament on his party's list, was originally feted to replace 
Clark.  However, Twyford, another high-ranking former international 
aid official, withdrew his name from consideration very late in the 
game.  If Twyford had run and won the Mt. Albert seat, his place on 
the Labour's party list would have been cancelled out.  This would 
have resulted in the automatic return to parliament of the next 
person on that list, the deeply unpopular Judith Tizard who famously 
lost Auckland Central seat in 2008.  Journalists ranked Tizard as 
one of the poorest performers in the last Parliament. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Given the potential scenario of Tizard's return, 
right-wing bloggers instigated a "Vote Twyford, get Tizard" campaign 
and portrayed it as a problem for both Labour and Goff whose desire 
to rejuvenate a tired-looking Labour Party would be undermined by 
return of the long-serving Tizard.  Even left-wing blogs featured 
comments by Labour supporters who fretted about Tizard's possible 
return to Parliament as a list MP. 
 
Greens Could Eat into Labour Vote 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU)  The Green Party has put forward its young and eager 
co-leader Russel Norman as its candidate in the Mt. Albert 
by-election.  The Greens feign bullishness about Norman's prospects 
because Mt. Albert has a high concentration of Green Party 
supporters.  In two of the last four elections, the Greens have just 
barely managed to reach the necessary five percent party vote needed 
to return to Parliament.  They are desperately seeking the safety 
net of an electorate seat and are the only party in Parliament 
without one.  If the Greens drop below five percent with no 
electorate seat they are out of Parliament, as happened to former 
Foreign Minister Winston Peters' New Zealand First party last 
November. 
 
¶10. (SBU)  Left-leaning Mt. Albert voters will be mindful that it is 
also almost impossible for Labour to be able to form a future 
Government unless the Greens are in Parliament.  Therefore, it is 
entirely possible that a portion of this voting bloc will cast 
ballots for Norman in order to better secure a Labour-Green 
government in the future.  Historically, this kind of 'strategic' 
voting has meant that minor parties do better in by-elections.  If 
that happens here the center-left vote will likely be split which 
could allow for an opening for National. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU)  Labour should hold Mt. Albert despite likely inroads from 
the Greens; however, few believe a Labour candidate will be the 
shoo-in that Clark was.  If Shearer wins the Labour nomination, his 
record of achievement and UN service would be very attractive to 
voters.  Moreover, the multi-ethnic and working class Mt. Albert 
electorate is still fertile Labour ground.  The Greens have a 
devoted following but generally lack the party organization needed 
to carry an electorate.  National will have a capable and media 
savvy candidate in Lee, who has strong local credentials.  Labour 
and Phil Goff have most to lose from a National upset, particularly 
if David Shearer is the candidate since he is clearly pegged as 
Goff's man.  A National upset could instigate a possible Labour 
Caucus challenge to Goff's leadership, given that some Labour 
supporters questioned if he had been the right choice to succeed 
Clark.  End Comment. 
 
Keegan