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PP RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0104/01 1131949
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231949Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5844
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000104 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2024 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: LABOUR DOOMED TO WANDER NEW ZEALAND'S POLITICAL 
WILDERNESS? 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Margaret McKean; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary.  Since the November 2008 election that 
ousted the Labour-led government of former PM Helen Clark, 
the Labour Party has struggled to define itself in opposition 
to attract positive media attention as well as the public's 
interest.  So far the Labour Party has failed on both counts. 
 The National Party of John Key retains high public approval 
ratings in the polls so far this year, and the government 
continues to find ways to work constructively with the minor 
political parties (ACT, United Future, Maori Party) that have 
supply and confidence agreements with National.  Of note, 
National recently signed an MOU with the left-wing Green 
Party.  Even Labour Party faithful have questioned how the 
Labour Party leadership has managed the transition from party 
in power to party in opposition.  Most worrisome to Labour 
however, was a recent newspaper editorial that already ruled 
out Labour's chances for victory in 2011, relegating Labour 
effectively to the political wilderness in the near term. 
End Summary. 
 
Did Labour Listen to Voters Last November? 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C)  In the aftermath of the Labour Party's defeat at the 
polls in November 2008, the party took quick action that 
Labour party leadership thought would mitigate damage to the 
party's morale and set the stage for a strong opposition role 
for the party.  Helen Clark announced on election night that 
she was stepping down as party leader and deputy party leader 
Michael Cullen quickly followed suit.  These resignations 
paved the way for a relatively speedy transfer of the Labour 
Party leadership mantle to Phil Goff, with Annette King as 
his deputy.  The leadership transfer was largely accomplished 
behind closed doors and Labour Party MPs filed before the 
media to endorse the decision and declared themselves a 
unified and rejuvenated opposition bench.  Some pro-Labour 
analysts decried the backroom deal approach to leadership 
selection, and were disappointed that the party had barely 
let the election dust settle before naming long-serving MP 
and Clark contemporary Phil Goff as leader.  Others thought 
the selection of Goff and Labour's depiction of him and 
Annette King as fresh faces was unconvincing -- particularly 
compared to the relatively large influx of young talented 
National MPs. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Mainstream media also criticized Labour's approach 
to opposition politics, noting that the party had refused to 
acknowledge the electoral drubbing received at the polls. 
One commentator noted that Labour seemed intent on believing 
that the public had simply grown bored with Labour and in a 
fit of madness, voted in the National Party.  Once voters 
realized the error in their ways, they would return Labour to 
power, the reasoning went.  Other analysts pointed out that 
the party seemed oblivious to Labour's failed policies that 
had alienated voters, and that without some public allowance 
that Labour had lost touch with the electorate, it would be 
difficult for Labour to reconnect with voters.  In response 
to some of the media criticism, Phil Goff commented that 
Labour would do some internal review, but journalists also 
noted that the behavior of Labour MPs in Parliament suggested 
that some were unaware they were no longer in government. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  At the Labour Party caucus meetings in March, 
Labour discussions centered on decrying the National Party's 
secret agenda, seemingly unaware that those stale accusations 
did not work in the lead up to the 2008 election and would 
fail to resonate with voters so far in 2009.  In fact, public 
opinion polling continues to give National and PM John Key 
even higher support numbers than National received at the 
polls last November.  And even though Clark stepped down as 
party leader and secured a UN job, she still outpolled Phil 
Goff in preferred PM polling. 
 
But Some Backpedalling Taking Place 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Despite Labour's efforts to downplay its policy 
missteps under Helen Clark, Labour has quietly backpedalled 
on a few key, signature Labour issues.  Labour signed on to 
the National government's wholesale repeal of the Electoral 
Finance Act, which the Labour Party had promulgated to limit 
campaign finance contributions and make political donations 
more transparent.  However, the legislation was cumbersome, 
overly complex, and was heavily criticized by the public, the 
Human Rights Commission, and the legal profession.  More 
recently, Labour allowed that some accommodation to Maori 
over the Foreshore and Seabed legislation may be reasonable. 
(Note:  Labour's support for the Foreshore and Seabed Act 
 
WELLINGTON 00000104  002 OF 002 
 
 
spawned the Maori Party, as Maori within the Labour Party 
felt that Labour had betrayed their interests in passing the 
controversial legislation.  End Note.) 
 
Greens Sign MOU with National 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  On April 8, the Green Party and National signed an 
MOU that lays out a framework for engagement on areas of 
policy agreement.  Some areas of engagement, e.g., energy 
efficiency, regulation of the pharmaceutical/natural remedies 
program, have already been formalized in an appendix of the 
MOU.  How the MOU would function in practice will start with 
the Greens identifying a policy area of common ground with 
the GNZ, and then seeking further discussions with 
government.  The process could allow the Greens access to 
official advice on the issue (which ordinarily would not be 
available to parties outside government).  The outcome could 
allow for the Greens to have some influence on policy or 
legislation.  The MOU signing stands in stark contrast to 
statements by Green Party officials prior to and after the 
election that stated the Greens would not work with National. 
 
 
¶7.  (C)  As political analysts scratched their heads over the 
meaning of this seeming capitulation by the Greens, it 
appeared that National's strong post-election showing and 
Labour's inability to generate public interest pushed the 
Greens to seek a modus vivendi with National in order to stay 
politically relevant.  We asked a Labour Party source if the 
MOU meant the Greens had reconciled themselves to the old 
adage, "if you can't beat em, join em," and if this move 
politically isolated Labour even further.  Our source, a 
Labour policy advisor, was relaxed about the MOU and noted 
that Labour has regular and in-depth contact with Green Party 
leader Jeannette Fitzsimmons; however, Fitzsimmons is 
stepping down as co-leader soon and Labour is unsure how well 
the good historical relationship between the two parties will 
continue with Russel Norman and the new (as yet undetermined) 
co-leader. 
 
Looking Ahead for Labour 
------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (C)  An April 16 Dominion Post editorial critical of 
Labour's continued reliance on old party faces predicted that 
National would remain in government for at least two terms, a 
prediction that many have voiced in private but had not 
stated publicly.  The editorial also noted that Labour will 
not be able to woo back voters -- the electorate will need to 
first become disenchanted with National.  If Labour is not in 
a position to be viewed as a viable alternative, they could 
still lose out in winning back the public.  Labour has 
dismissed the editorial and blamed the editorial staff for 
being anti-Labour.  However, we understand that Labour 
privately is already laying the groundwork for further 
resignations before the next election so that more younger 
Labour candidates can come forward, laying the groundwork for 
a National-style rejuvenation. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  Even in defeat, Helen Clark continued to cast a long 
shadow over the future of the Labour Party, despite her 
generally low profile after tranferring the leadership to 
Phil Goff.  With her departure for New York, effective 
rebuilding can begin, but is likely to be done slowly and 
without fanfare for fear of endangering the Clark legacy, 
which many in Labour will find difficult to let go.  Most 
analysts agree that Labour needs an influx of new blood; 
however, simply promoting younger Labour Party personalities 
may not be enough to change voting patterns without a 
fundamental rethink of how some of Labour's policies were 
rejected by the electorate and that a more centrist approach 
to governance (as National has done) may be needed.  The 
Labour Party also tends to attract its membership from the 
ranks of academics, unions and government workers. 
National's younger candidates, in contrast, typified the 
cross section of younger New Zealand professionals and middle 
class families -- and were candidates who attracted important 
swing voters in urban centers where Labour traditionally had 
strong support.  Whether Labour can field a similar broad 
range of younger candidates among its traditional 
left-of-center pockets of support is in question.  The party 
will also need to revamp its current parliamentary list, 
which is replete with tried, tested, and largely defeated 
Labour Party stalwarts.  End Comment. 
KEEGAN