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OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHWR #0394/01 1040932
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 140932Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8163
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000394 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/ACE, EUR/CE, AND EUR/UMB 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM BY PL
SUBJECT: POLAND/BELARUS - IS DIALOGUE WORKING? 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  At an April 2 conference on EU-Belarus relations, 
panel participants representing the GOP, parliament, and think-tanks 
agreed that the EU's earlier policy of isolation failed, but 
disagreed on the extent to which the EU and Poland should 
"conditionalize" dialogue with Belarus.  MP Robert Tyszkiewicz 
(Civic Platform, PO) and Pawel Kazanecki of the East-European 
Democratic Center criticized the GOP's focus on the Polish minority 
in Belarus, and stressed the need to engage the opposition. 
Panelists agreed the changes implemented by Lukashenka following the 
suspension of the EU sanctions are mainly cosmetic, and could be 
easily reversed.  Tyszkiewicz emphasized the EU Eastern 
Partnership's potential to drive dialogue with Belarus.  Kazanecki 
called for a detailed EU "road map," laying out conditions Belarus 
would have to meet in order to receive specific concessions from the 
EU.  END SUMMARY. 
 
MFA:  DIALOGUE IS THE ONLY OPTION 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Speaking at an April 2 debate organized by the Warsaw-based 
Stefan Batory Foundation, Deputy FM Andrzej Kremer stated that the 
GOP determined in early 2008 that the EU's policy of isolating 
Belarusian leaders had not been successful.  Since then, the Polish 
MFA has instituted a system of regular dialogue at the deputy 
minister and department director levels.  This engagement was 
supplemented by two high-level economic visits -- a Belarusian 
delegation's participation in the Krynica Economic Forum in late 
2008 and Deputy PM Pawlak's February 2009 visit to Minsk.  (NB: 
Kremer neglected to mention FM Sikorski's October 2008 bilat with 
Belarusian FM Martynov.) Kremer said the GOP had placed renewed 
emphasis on the GOB's treatment of the Union of Poles in Belarus 
(ZPB) as a criterion for sustained dialogue. Robert Tyszkiewicz, a 
Civic Platform (PO) MP and Deputy Chair of the Sejm Foreign Affairs 
Committee, positively assessed the GOP's dialogue-oriented approach, 
which had created an opening to present demands to the regime.  He 
and Pawel Kazanecki of the East-European Democratic Center, an NGO 
that works with Belarusian opposition leaders, urged the GOP to 
"think beyond" the Polish minority by similarly pressing the GOB to 
include the Belarusian opposition in dialogue. 
 
COSMETIC CHANGES 
---------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Tyszkiewicz and Kazanecki, who based their assessment of 
recent developments in Belarus chiefly on contacts with the 
Belarusian opposition and civil society organizations, agreed that 
there had not been much real progress toward democratization since 
October 2008. Tyszkiewicz argued that changes in the legal system 
were primarily "decorative," asserting that the most significant 
change was in the repressive methods used by the regime, i.e., a 
shift from political and judicial tactics to economic pressure. 
Kazanecki agreed and stressed the conclusions of a report prepared 
by Belarusian civil society organizations on developments since 
October 2008, which  stated that "while a small number of 
organizations have benefited and individual initiatives have taken 
place, little has been done to facilitate the functioning of 
independent civic and media sectors in any meaningful manner." 
Kremer acknowledged that "some progress" did not equate to 
fulfillment of the EU's expectations -- while dialogue in itself is 
a positive development, the GOP and EU must try to measure concrete 
progress. 
 
EASTERN PARTNERSHIP VS. ROAD MAP APPROACH 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Tyszkiewicz argued that the EU's Eastern Partnership is "the 
only feasible tool" for putting pressure on Minsk to implement 
economic and political reforms. He reiterated the need to include 
Belarusian civil society in Eastern Partnership programs, stating 
that the EU should closely monitor progress on democratization and 
make its assistance for Belarus dependent on it.  Tyszkiewicz added 
that existing projects like satellite and radio programming should 
be continued.  Kazanecki expressed skepticism about the Eastern 
Partnership's potential to bring about real change in Belarus, 
especially given the scope of the country's economic crisis and its 
resulting increased financial dependence on Moscow.  He stressed 
that Russia had many instruments to block EU-Belarusian dialogue, 
including the close linkages between Belarusian and Russian security 
systems.  In this broad context, Kazanecki called for a long-term 
"road map" or "action plan" in which the EU would outline specific 
demands -- with timelines and indicators for assessing compliance -- 
instead of the broad conditions in the EU's current CFSP 
Conclusions.  In exchange, Kazanecki said, the EU should offer 
Belarus a broader package than the Eastern Partnership in order to 
be more competitive with Moscow. 
 
WHAT ABOUT ECONOMIC REFORMS? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) In follow-on Q&A, some audience members complained that the 
 
WARSAW 00000394  002 OF 002 
 
 
panel had not addressed economic cooperation with Belarus, 
suggesting that positive developments in the Belarusian economy 
could trigger political change.  The chair of the Polish-Belarusian 
Commercial Chamber, Jozef Lochowski, pointed to the "high volume" 
(USD 3 billion) of bilateral trade.  He argued that Belarus is a 
reliable and sound trading partner for a number of small Polish 
businesses in the border region.  Deputy FM Kremer acknowledged 
while there has been some progress on negotiating a "small border 
traffic" agreement with Belarus, it is too early to say there had 
been a "breakthrough." Tyszkiewicz noted the numerous obstacles that 
Polish businesses encounter while attempting to do business in 
Belarus.  Tyszkiewicz and Kazanecki argued that economic change 
alone is not enough; indeed, Belarus will need to implement 
political reforms in order to attract large-scale investment. 
Kazanecki also stressed that the EU is not just an economic 
community, but one based on shared values. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶6. (SBU) Polish policymakers and opinion leaders remain keenly 
interested in promoting democracy in Belarus.  While largely 
convinced that the EU's former policy of isolation did not work, the 
public debate revealed a wide range of opinions on the extent to 
which Poland and the EU should "conditionalize" assistance to 
Belarus via the Eastern Partnership (EP) and other EU programs. 
This may be an indication of strong support for making participation 
in EP projects contingent on fulfilling specific criteria, or even 
making the extent of Belarusian participation contingent on 
fulfilling a range of criteria.  Most striking was the frank 
criticism of the GOP's narrow focus on Lukashenka's treatment of the 
Polish minority -- rather than a larger cross-section of the 
opposition -- as a litmus test for sustained engagement. 
 
ASHE