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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 000826 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 04/10/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Will Lower House be dissolved in May? Prevailing view in LDP is 
that enactment of supplementary budget will set stage for 
dissolution; Prime minister may have July or later in mind (Yomiuri) 
 
 
(2) DPJ would ban donations from corporations and organizations; 
Aims to wipe away the party's negative image (Yomiuri) 
 
(3) Issuance of deficit-covering government bonds to top 30 trillion 
yen: Another 8 trillion yen to finance additional economic package 
(Sankei) 
 
(4) Calls for tough action against North Korea could trigger an arms 
race (Asahi) 
 
(5) North Korean missile launch - part 3: Final stage before 
developing missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads (Yomiuri) 
 
(6) TOP HEADLINES 
 
(7) EDITORIALS 
 
(8) Prime Minister's schedule, April 9 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Will Lower House be dissolved in May? Prevailing view in LDP is 
that enactment of supplementary budget will set stage for 
dissolution; Prime minister may have July or later in mind 
 
YOMIURI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) 
April 10, 2009 
 
Hiroshi Oyama, Kohei Kobayashi, Political Department 
 
With the compilation of the nation's largest-ever economic stimulus 
package that includes 15 trillion yen in actual fiscal spending, the 
government and the ruling parties now believe that Prime Minister 
Taro Aso has taken one step closer to dissolving the House of 
Representatives for a snap general election. His cabinet's support 
ratings are showing some signs of improvement. Given the situation, 
rumor has it in the ruling parties that the prime minister will 
dissolve the Lower House in May. Such factors as the trends in 
support ratings and moves by the major opposition Democratic Party 
of Japan (DPJ) are likely to be key to the prime minister's decision 
on when to dissolve the Lower House. 
 
Prime Minister Aso held a press conference at the Japan National 
Press Club yesterday in which he was asked when he would dissolve 
the Lower House. Aso parried the question, saying: "People have been 
saying all sorts of things, and I have been enjoying hearing them." 
 
Until recently, Aso was struggling with dismal public support 
ratings and "there were only traces of life in him," as one LDP 
executive put it. But his popularity has been rising in the wake of 
the indictment of DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa's state-paid secretary 
on charges of violating the Political Funds Control Law in handling 
donations to Ozawa's funds-management organization. Aso is now 
upbeat. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000826  002 OF 008 
 
 
The prime minister, who keeps saying that he is prioritizing policy 
over Lower House dissolution, seems to be planning to dissolve the 
chamber in July or later. His strategy is to face the next Lower 
House election after achieving results by means of enacting a fiscal 
2009 supplementary budget bill, tax reform-related bills and 
anti-piracy legislation. The prime minister has repeatedly indicated 
that he might dissolve the Lower House in the event the opposition 
parties put up stiff resistance during Diet deliberations. The 
prevailing view is that his statements were intended to discourage 
the opposition parties from raising objections. 
 
At the same time, many LDP lawmakers favor dissolution in May. 
 
It is likely that a supplementary budget bill and tax reform-related 
bills will be presented to the Diet on April 27 and that they will 
clear the Lower House in mid-May. Those favoring May take the view 
that such a development would set the stage for the dissolution 
regardless of the opposition camp's boycott of deliberations in the 
House of Councillors. 
 
In an LDP Tokyo federation meeting on April 6, Prime Minister Aso 
said, "There will be a Lower House election shortly." This was 
followed by a meeting on April 7 between Aso and former Prime 
Minister Yoshiro Mori, former Finance Minister Bunmei Ibuki and 
others. This rekindled the May dissolution 
 in the LDP. But when LDP General Council Chairman Takashi Sasagawa 
asked Aso if "shortly" meant several months, Aso said, "Yes." 
 
The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is scheduled for July 12. 
The LDP's coalition partner New Komeito does not want the next Lower 
House election to be close to the Tokyo election. Some are therefore 
talking about a possible dissolution in late May for election on 
June 7 or 14. Aso, too, reportedly told an aide: "I believer an 
election on June 7 would satisfy the New Komeito." 
 
There are high hurdles ahead of the possible dissolution in May, 
however. Whether the cabinet's support ratings will further improve 
is unknown, and there is still the possibility of Nishimatsu 
Construction Co.'s illegal donation scandal spilling over on to the 
LDP. In an Ibuki faction general meeting yesterday, Ibuki urged the 
prime minister to make a decision cautiously. 
 
If May is passed up, the G-8 summit and the Tokyo election both come 
in July. A Lower House election has never been held in August, and 
the prime minister might not be able to dissolve the chamber until 
the Lower House members' term expires in September. There is 
speculation that in such a case, a move might arise to unseat Aso, 
and he would be forced to resign before his tenure as LDP president 
expires in September. 
 
Aso held a meeting at his office yesterday with former Prime 
Minister Mori, who is scheduled to visit South Africa and other 
countries in mid-May. In the meeting, Mori asked Aso about the 
possibility of the next Lower House election coinciding with his 
overseas trip. Aso reportedly smiled and did not answer Mori's 
question. 
 
(2) DPJ would ban donations from corporations and organizations; 
Aims to wipe away the party's negative image 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) 
April 10, 2009 
 
TOKYO 00000826  003 OF 008 
 
 
 
The political promotion task force of the Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ) decided in a meeting yesterday a policy of completely 
prohibiting corporations and organizations from making donations to 
individual politicians and from purchasing party tickets for 
politicians' fundraising activities, despite objections from within 
the party. The DPJ's decision is aimed at wiping away its negative 
image stemming from the indictment of DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa's 
secretary for violating the Political Funds Control Law over 
donations to his political fund management organization. I hopes to 
do so by displaying a firm stance toward the issue of "politics and 
money," having in mind the House of Representatives election drawing 
closer. 
 
After the meeting, DPJ Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama reported the 
policy to Ozawa at party headquarters. Ozawa reportedly told 
Hatoyama: "If we say we will ban only corporations receiving orders 
for public works projects, the public would not understand what we 
mean. The public is not interested in the argument of completely 
prohibiting donations or not, so it is good that a complete ban was 
decided." 
 
The DPJ included a measure to ban donations from corporations 
receiving orders for public works projects in its manifesto (set of 
campaign pledges) for the Lower House elections in 2003 and in 2005. 
However, many DPJ lawmakers were negative about completely 
prohibiting corporate donations in the past. At a press conference 
on March 17, Ozawa suggested completely banning donations from 
corporations and organizations. Ozawa's aim was to fend off 
criticism against him over the fundraising scandal involving his 
fund management organization. With the Lower House election drawing 
closer, Ozawa thought that it was necessary to play up differences 
in the positions of the DPJ and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
regarding the issue of politics and money, according to a senior DPJ 
member. 
 
Many DPJ lawmakers, centering on those who have received donations 
from corporations and labor unions, are still negative about a 
complete ban. The meeting failed to decide on a transitional period 
because such objections were presented in succession as that a 
complete ban would restrict freedom of political activities. There 
is also a view that even if the party submits a bill to the Diet, it 
would not be adopted even in the House of Councillors, where some 
members may defy the party policy. 
 
(3) Issuance of deficit-covering government bonds to top 30 trillion 
yen: Another 8 trillion yen to finance additional economic package 
 
SANKEI (Page 1) (Full) 
April 10, 2009 
 
The amount of deficit-covering government bonds to be issued in 
fiscal 2009 will likely top 30 trillion yen. The government plans to 
issue additional deficit-covering government bonds worth 8 trillion 
yen in the fiscal 2009 extra budget, which will finance an 
additional stimulus package. As a result, the issuance of such bonds 
will top 28.7 trillion yen (account-settlement basis), the 
highest-record level marked in fiscal 2003, if 25.7 trillion yen to 
be issued in the fiscal 2007 original budget is added. The 
additional issuance of government bonds, including construction 
bonds to finance public works, will likely reach 11 trillion yen. 
The issuance of deficit covering government bonds inclusive of such 
 
TOKYO 00000826  004 OF 008 
 
 
to be issued in the extra budget will thus swell to roughly 44 
trillion yen. As such, it is now certain that the total amount of 
the issuance of such bonds will exceed 37.5 trillion yen 
(account-settlement basis), the record-high marked in fiscal 1999. 
 
Finance Minister, State Minister for Financial Services and State 
Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano during a 
BS-Fuji TV news show on the evening of April 9th revealed the 
outlook that the amount of deficit-covering government bonds to be 
issued will reach between 7-8 trillion yen. As a breakdown of fiscal 
resources for the extra budget, he revealed a plan to draw 1 
trillion yen from reserves for emergency economic measures to 
implement an economic stimulus package promptly and 3 trillion yen 
from reserves for interest-rate fluctuations in the fiscal 
investment and loans program special account, so-called hidden funds 
(Maizokin) in Kasumigaseki. He noted that public works would be 
financed with construction bonds, and the rest would have to be 
covered with deficit-covering government bonds. 
 
He also pointed out that if the government does not take stimulus 
measures, the jobless rate could top 7 PERCENT . He explained that 
the government's additional economic stimulus measures will produce 
the effect of constraining the unemployment rate at around the lower 
5 PERCENT  level, by pushing down a rise in such a rate to around 1 
PERCENT . 
 
In the meantime, as part of the additional economic stimulus 
measures, the government and the ruling parties the same day put 
together fresh countermeasures on stock prices tapping public funds. 
The package includes sorting out systems, such as one under which a 
government organ purchases stocks, when the financial market is 
thrown into chaos due to stock plunges, and establishing a 
government guarantee framework worth 50 trillion yen that can be 
used for stock purchases. The government will submit the new package 
as lawmaker-initiated legislation related to the fiscal 2009 
budget. 
 
Regarding the additional stimulus package, the government approach 
to the sluggish stock market is that a government-affiliated body 
purchases stocks in readiness for a possible continuation of a 
situation, in which the market suffers from a serious setback. As 
such, stock purchases will be limited to a case in which the stock 
market is thrown into an abnormal situation. The government will 
establish a new body as an organ tasked with purchasing stocks. 
 
(4) Calls for tough action against North Korea could trigger an arms 
race 
 
ASAHI (Page 3) (Full) 
April 10, 2009 
 
Calls for a tough response to North Korea's recent missile launch 
are growing in Japan and South Korea. In Japan, the argument for 
Japan to posses a capability to attack Korea's missile bases has 
been heard again, ignoring Japan's repeated confirmation of its 
postwar defense-only policy. Such calls could trigger an arms race 
in the region. 
 
Appeals for nuclear option debate growing in LDP 
 
"It is the ruling parties' responsibility to consider a nuclear 
deterrence option to cope with the North Korean threat. Japan should 
 
TOKYO 00000826  005 OF 008 
 
 
consider having the capacity to independently attack missile based 
in North Korea." House of Councillors member Ichita Yamamoto made 
this remark during the first meeting yesterday of a group to study 
developing a deterrent capability against North Korea, launched by 
seven Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers. 
 
An increasing number of LDP members have begun to express hard-line 
views since Pyongyang's missile launch on April 5. Senior member 
Goji Sakamoto indicated in a party executive meeting on April 7 that 
"Japan should threaten by saying that it will go nuclear." In a 
meeting of the Upper House's foreign and defense committees held the 
same day, National Defense Division Chairman Katsuto Asano said: "I 
wonder if the government intends to review the current role-sharing 
mechanism of Japan being responsible for national defense and the 
U.S. responsible for taking the offensive." 
 
Whenever North Korea launched ballistic missiles, like those in 
1998, 2003 and 2006, and whenever the argument of missiles being a 
threat gained influence, the argument always came up about Japan 
opting to have an enemy-base strike capability. On this option, 
however, the government has repeatedly explained: Although Japan's 
attack of an enemy base following its strike on Japan is within the 
scope of self-defense, possessing weapons to attack other countries 
itself is unconstitutional. Even on the idea of Japan possessing 
such weapons to deter enemies' attacks, the government's view is 
that the possession of offensive weapons such as intercontinental 
ballistic missiles and long-range bombers goes against the nation's 
defense-only policy. 
 
Japan for the first time deployed ballistic missile defense (BMD) 
units to possibly intercept a missile North Korea's planned to 
launch. It took time to completely deploy them, so the defensive 
area to be covered by the system was limited. This result has 
convinced people of the need to debate a nuclear option. Even so, if 
Japan moves to possess offensive weapons, China, South Korea and 
other neighbors will inevitably react fiercely. Indeed, Japan's move 
could result in triggering an arms race in the region. 
 
A senior Self-Defense Force official said: "Developing a 
preemptive-strike capability is far less costly than developing a 
BMD system." But when the government decided to introduce the MD 
system in December 2003, it issued this statement under the name of 
the chief cabinet secretary: "The introduction of the system is not 
intended to pose a threat to neighboring countries." Given this, the 
appeal for a preemptive-strike capability can be taken as ignoring 
what have been repeatedly discussed in the nation. 
 
Some LDP members have criticized this recent atmosphere in the 
party. Former Secretary General Taku Yamasaki said on April 7: "Some 
suggest that if another country launches in Japan's direction, Japan 
should strike that country's missile bases, and others propose that 
Japan should go nuclear if the other side opts for it. Such 
arguments will lead mankind to destruction." 
 
(5) North Korean missile launch - part 3: Final stage before 
developing missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads 
 
YOMIURI (Page 6) (Full) 
April 6, 2009 
 
Kazuhisa Ogawa: Military affairs analyst 
 
 
TOKYO 00000826  006 OF 008 
 
 
The aim of the firing of a ballistic missile by North Korea on April 
5 is not to launch an artificial satellite but to acquire 
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology and data with a 
view to developing a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. 
 
Even Iran and Pakistan, to which North Korea has provided technology 
for the development of missiles, would not accept its test-firing a 
ballistic missile. However, if it is an artificial satellite, the 
North can claim that the firing of such is not a violation of UN 
Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1718. It is reasonable to assume 
that the North has ICBMs and has now entered the final stage of 
launching a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. 
 
North Korea's missile technology has significantly improved, 
compared with the launch of a Taepodong-2 missile in July 2006, 
although the launch itself was a failure. The North presumably used 
highly corrosive liquid fuel, which is difficult to handle. 
Anti-corrosive coating using former USSR technology was supposedly 
applied to underground fuel tanks and pipes that connect tanks and a 
missile. 
 
A tank that contains liquid fuel could remain corrosion-free for up 
to six months. It is possible to assume that the North has erected 
missile-launching facilities underground, using this technology. The 
injection of fuel from a fuel tank was speedy. The time taken until 
the launch was shorter than the previous launch. 
 
The next stage is to miniaturize a nuclear warhead. Pakistan's 
medium-range ballistic missile "Gauri," which is said to be a 
reproduction of North Korea's Nodong with a range of 1,300 
kilometers, which has Japan within a range, is already 
nuclear-capable. It makes sense to assume that the North has 
succeeded in miniaturizing the warhead for the Nodong. The 
prevailing view is that the nation already has no more than 10 such 
nuclear warheads. 
 
It is only a matter of time before the North can produce a small 
nuclear warhead that is weight-compatible for an ICBM. 
 
A nuclear threat is something that combines both the intent of the 
other country and its capabilities. It would not be a threat if that 
county is friendly toward Japan and has an interdependent 
relationship. 
 
What Japan must do is to change North Korea from being a hostile 
country - that is to say, change its intention through diplomacy and 
contain its capabilities, i.e., its possession of nuclear arms and 
missiles. This can be done by strengthening the Japan-U.S. 
alliance. 
 
However, the U.S. does not think that North Korea will take reckless 
action, such as striking other countries with nuclear missiles. The 
U.S presumably does not consider the North's missile launch as a 
major threat to it. 
 
It is very important for Japan to work on the U.S., which has been 
giving priority to the prevention of nuclear proliferation, to focus 
on missiles. Further, in order to have the Japan-U.S. alliance fully 
function, it is imperative to clarify the U.S. stance that it will 
regard any attack on Japan as an attack on the U.S., by specifying a 
method of counterattack against the attacking country. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000826  007 OF 008 
 
 
In the meantime, the international community must take measures in 
unison to contain the North's nuclear capability with a broader 
framework than the six-party talks. 
 
Kazuhisa Ogawa: Military affairs analyst, after being a newspaper 
reporter. His works include "Japan's War Capability" and "Fight 
against Crisis." 63 years old. 
 
(6) TOP HEADLINES 
 
Asahi: 
Consumer agency bill to clear current Diet session due to DPJ's 
compromise 
 
Mainichi: 
Japan Post disposed of documents on insurance benefit payments made 
before its switch from government agency to public corporation 
 
Yomiuri, Sankei: 
Aso aims to create 4 million jobs by 2020 through intensive 
investments in environment, medical and tourism 
 
Nikkei: 
Mitsubishi Chemical to withdraw from two general-purpose resin 
businesses 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
Japan, U.S. analysis: North Korean missile's third stage separated 
during descent after flying over 3,200 kilometers 
 
Akahata: 
Chairman Shii: Guam International Agreement must be rejected 
 
(7) EDITORIALS 
 
Asahi: 
(1) 15-trillion-yen supplementary budget too huge 
(2) DPJ must get serious about banning corporate donations 
 
Mainichi: 
(1) Imperial golden wedding anniversary 
(2) 15-trillion-yen stimulus package must bear fruit 
 
Yomiuri: 
(1) Record stimulus package must be spent wisely 
(2) Day-care center reform essential for working mothers 
 
Nikkei: 
(1) Hurdles for Aso's economic doubling plan 
(2) Alarm against Kim's military-first administration 
 
Sankei: 
(1) Imperial golden wedding anniversary, an opportunity to consider 
prosperity of Imperial Family 
(2) Aim at new UN Security Council resolution on North Korean 
missile 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
(1) Emperor, Empress celebrate 50th wedding anniversary 
(2) Bonn climate talks: Adoption of new rules must not be postponed 
 
Akahata: 
 
TOKYO 00000826  008 OF 008 
 
 
(1) Suspicions concerning incumbent cabinet minister must be pursued 
 
 
(8) Prime Minister's schedule, April 9 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
April 10, 2009 
 
08:20 
Attended at Kantei meeting of IT strategy taskforce. 
 
09:40 
Singed his name on the book for the birthday of Princess Nobuko at 
Prince Mikasa's residence in Moto-Akasaka. 
 
11:01 
Met International Rugby Board Chairman Lapasset at Kantei, attended 
by Japan Rugby Football Union Chairman Yoshiro Mori, former prime 
minister, and Education Administrative Vice Zeniya. Mori remained. 
 
11:46 
Met with Lower House member Akiko Yamanaka. 
 
12:06 
Met with Lower House member Yoshitake Masuhara. 
 
13:02 
Attended Lower House plenary session. 
 
13:51 
Met at Kantei with chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura. Met later with 
Reform Club Representative Watanabe and Secretary General Arai, 
joined by Kawamura. 
 
14:45 
Met with Murakami, vice minister for international affairs of the 
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Ishige, vice 
minister for international affairs of the Ministry of Economy, Trade 
and Industry; Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Sasae, Foreign 
Ministry Asian and Oceanic Affairs Bureau chief Saiki, International 
Cooperation Bureau chief Kitera, joined by Deputy Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Matsumoto. 
 
16:25 
Met Japan National Press Club President Takuo Takihana at Japan 
Press Center in Uchisaiwaicho. Attended session hosted JNPC. 
18:18 Met U.S. Senator McCain at Kantei. 
 
19:38 
Dined with Upper House member Chuichi Date at Japanese restaurant 
Yamazato in Hotel Okura. 
 
21:48 
Met secretary at bar Baron Okura in Hotel Okura. 
 
22:46 Returned to the official residence. 
 
ZUMWALT