VZCZCXRO6846
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #0786/01 0911626
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 011626Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1284
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 8355

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000786 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV IS
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU SET TO MANAGE BROAD BUT UNWIELDY 
COALITION 
 
1,  (SBU)  SUMMARY.  Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu took 
office April 1 after assembling the largest government in 
Israeli history.  Negotiations with other party leaders had 
quickly established a steep cost to secure their 
participation, but Netanyahu was intent on a broad government 
that would give him his best shot at serving a lengthy term. 
The 74 seat-coalition offers him a cushion against sudden 
defections, but Israel's bare knuckle politics offers him 
little sense of security.  Netanyahu likely will face some 
friction within his coalition - Yisrael Beitenu (YB) and SHAS 
are a good bet to squabble - and he will be required to 
further sort out roles and responsibilities of his ministers 
and fellow Likudniks, which also could lead to ruffled 
feathers.  The nascent revolt within the Labor party means 
that some of those seats could slip away from Netanyahu.  It 
is too early to gauge exactly how Netanyahu will lead his 
government, but we anticipate that titles will have little 
bearing on responsibilities.  End Summary. 
 
 
------------------------------- 
BROAD COALITION WITH A PRICE... 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Prime Minister Netanyahu takes office as head of 
the largest government in the history of Israel, and 
apparently one of the largest in the world.  The government 
of 30 Ministers, at least 7 deputy ministers, and various 
newly-created posts is a product of political wheeling and 
dealing that began soon after the election in February. 
Netanyahu needed YB -- which had indicated its openness to 
forming a coalition with Kadima -- to ensure that he would 
become the next Prime Minister, and his offer to YB head 
Avigdor Lieberman was roundly viewed as generous.  The deal 
with Lieberman established a high market rate for securing 
coalition partners, and Netanyahu paid handsomely to Labor 
and, to a lesser extent SHAS and United Torah Judaism (UTJ). 
With few ministries (Finance being the only major one) left 
over to dole out to Likud party stalwarts and rising stars, 
Netanyahu was forced to split ministries, add deputy 
positions, and enforce committee chair rotations to stifle 
grumbling within Likud. 
 
------------------------------ 
...THAT MIGHT JUST BE WORTH IT 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The government, though it appears bloated, may 
provide Netanyahu with his best hope for long-term stability. 
 The 74-seat coalition means that any one party, save for YB, 
could leave Netanyahu's coalition without depriving him of a 
governing majority.  It also provides an additional buffer 
should the dissident faction within Labor (which opposed 
joining the coalition) split off from, or assume control of, 
the party.  Israeli politics are extremely dynamic, however, 
and what appears to be a solid majority today, can quickly be 
a coalition crisis tomorrow. 
 
--------------------------------- 
WHERE ARE TE POINTS OF FRICTION? 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) A coalition and government thislarge can promote 
longevity, but it is likely toalso be a painful existence. 
Netanyahu has good elations with the party heads in his 
coalition (ost notably, his relationship with Defense 
Miniser Barak is much better than the relationship betwen 
former Prime Minister Olmert and Barak in the last year of 
Olmert's term), but Lieberman's stridently secular positions 
could cause significant friction with the ultraorthodox SHAS 
and UTJ parties.  Barak and Lieberman are neither enemies nor 
close friends, but Barak had earlier criticized Netanyahu's 
decision to offer Lieberman, who is under criminal 
investigation, control over the Justice Ministry and the 
police.  Lieberman, for his part, was openly critical of 
Barak's execution of Operation Cast Lead, and reportedly 
sought to block Netanyahu's plans to bring Barak and Labor 
into the coalition.  Beyond party disputes, Netanyahu may be 
called on to delineate (either explicitly or implicitly) a 
clear division of responsibilities and pecking order among 
his ministers (some of whose portfolios appear to overlap), 
which could spark resentment among those relegated to the 
second and third-tiers. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The disunity in Labor also could pose a challenge 
to Netanyahu.  Five Labor holdouts did not vote confidence in 
his government (note:  by not voting they technically did not 
break with party discipline, which suggests this is not yet 
an all-out rebellion), and they seem intent on ousting Barak 
 
TEL AVIV 00000786  002 OF 002 
 
 
in the next party leadership primary.  Netanyahu, though his 
large government means he is not beholden to Labor, will have 
to be careful to avoid making policy decisions or statements 
that further alienate the rebellious faction in that party if 
he seeks to keep their 13 seats.  Lieberman's hardline public 
statement on assuming control of the Foreign Ministry the 
afternoon of April 1, in which he dismissed the Annapolis 
process and suggested that only strength, not more 
concessions, would bring peace, is likely to add to the 
misgivings within Labor about being in a coalition with 
Lieberman. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
TITLES AND INFLUENCE -- NO CORRELATION 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Positions and titles do not provide the best 
insight to how the Netanyahu government will operate.  The 
clearest example of this is Bibi's choice for the Finance 
portfolio, Yuval Steinitz.  Bibi was long rumored to be 
holding this post for himself.  With limited spoils to spread 
around, he offered it to a capable and loyal MK with no 
background in economics, and then named himself Minister of 
Economic Strategy.  Netanyahu also named a coterie of Vice 
Premiers (party rival Silvan Shalom and political newcomer 
Moshe "Bugi" Yaalon) and Deputy Prime Ministers (Barak, 
Lieberman, and Dan Meridor), but refused to name an heir 
apparent who would take over should he become incapacitated 
or need to step down.  In the end, Bibi prefers Bibi, and he 
will rely on his own counsel, along with those who have 
earned his trust over the years, regardless of their 
positions. 
 
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Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
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CUNNINGHAM