VZCZCXRO9115
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #0461/01 1051055
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151055Z APR 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1401
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9119
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 0120
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0648
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0554
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 3065
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 2521
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 7013
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0210
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000461 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW CH
SUBJECT: CROSS-STRAIT DETENTE FUELS WORRIES ABOUT RELATIONS 
WITH THE U.S. 
 
REF: TAIPEI 416 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: At a recent pro-government conference on 
the 30th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), 
panelists, mostly from the U.S., expressed support for the Ma 
administration's efforts to improve cross-Strait relations 
and stressed that the U.S. will continue to provide Taiwan 
with strong support.  Panelists suggested that the 
U.S.-Taiwan-PRC triangular relationship should not be viewed 
as a zero sum game but can produce winning outcomes for all 
three parties.  Some members of the audience, reflecting 
opposition views, worried that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship 
might weaken as Beijing's influence over Taiwan grows. 
Moreover, in their view, the U.S. could become less 
responsive to Taiwan's arms and other needs as Washington 
increasingly focuses on the U.S.-China relationship.  End 
Summary. 
 
Ma Argues Detente Enhances Taiwan International Space 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Speaking at an April 12 International Conference on 
30 years of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), President Ma 
Ying-jeou argued that improved relations with the mainland 
will also allow Taiwan more freedom to expand its 
international space and enhance relations with allies and 
friends, including the U.S.  Ma also insisted his 
cross-Strait policy will not compromise Taiwan's sovereignty. 
 
Worries Unabated Despite Assurance of U.S. Support 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Conference panelists, mostly American academics 
interspersed with a few Taiwan academics, were united in 
their view that the TRA serves American and Taiwan interests 
and that U.S. support for Taiwan will continue for the 
foreseeable future.  Many members of the audience, however, 
questioned whether the TRA will continue to fully meet 
Taiwan's needs. They pointed to the PRC's rising influence 
over Taiwan and the increasing importance of China to the 
U.S. as reasons for concerns that the U.S.-Taiwan 
relationship might weaken in the future. 
 
¶4. (SBU) According to CSIS's Bonnie Glaser, concerns that 
growing cross-Strait linkages would lead to weakened U.S. 
support for Taiwan are based on the mistaken presumption that 
the U.S.-Taiwan-PRC relationship is a zero-sum game.  Rather, 
she argued, the relationship can have a win-win-win outcome 
for all three parties, a point also stressed by Ma Ying-jeou 
in his opening address.  Several panelists suggested that 
fears the PRC will force Taiwan to unify are unfounded since 
Beijing, like others, has a strong interest in maintaining 
cross-Strait peace and stability.  Moreover, unification, 
which is only a distant possibility, would require the 
consent of the people on Taiwan expressed through a legal 
process. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Despite the reassurances offered by many foreign 
panelists, members of the audience continued to express 
concerns that closer cross-Strait relations would lead to 
greater distance between Taiwan and the U.S.  The U.S., 
focused on its increasingly important relationship with 
China, may become less responsive to Taiwan's concerns, some 
suggested.  Moreover, the slow but insistent pull of the 
mainland will limit Taiwan's future political options as 
Beijing influences Taipei's decisionmaking on key issues, 
such as international space.  Some audience members worried 
that growing PRC clout could result in the U.S. stepping back 
from its strong public support for Taiwan and also reduce 
U.S. willingness to provide Taiwan with the arms it needs to 
negotiate with the mainland from a position of strength. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Although the April 12 conference was organized as a 
pro-government event, many members of the audience appeared 
to be from the pan-Green camp, which worries about the 
 
TAIPEI 00000461  002 OF 002 
 
 
implications of President Ma's cross-Strait policies.  In 
their view, Ma is granting Beijing too much influence over 
Taiwan's foreign policy and economic interests while failing 
to protect Taiwan's sovereignty.  While there is clearly a 
domestic political aspect to this argument - Ma's 
cross-Strait policies have become a rallying cry for the 
opposition DPP, the concern on the part of some that moving 
into the dragon's embrace is a risky venture appears genuine. 
YOUNG