VZCZCXRO1386
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #0416/01 0971008
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071008Z APR 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1323
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9098
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 0104
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0636
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 3056
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0201
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0534
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 2512
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 7004
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000416 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: PRO-GREEN ACADEMICS WORRY TAIWAN IS BEING 
IRREVERSIBLY DRAWN INTO CHINA'S ORBIT 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: A number of Taiwan and international 
participants at a recent conference on the 30th anniversary 
of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) expressed concern that the 
rise of China, Taiwan's growing economic dependence on the 
PRC, and cross-Strait detente are drawing Taiwan increasingly 
into China's orbit.  Growing PRC influence will limit 
Taiwan's future political options, they argued.  While 
several of the mostly pro-Green academics generally agreed 
that the U.S. has played an important balancing role in 
maintaining cross-Strait stability, they worried about the 
possibility that U.S. support for an "autonomous Taiwan" 
might waver if cross-Strait ties continue to warm and 
domestic support in Taiwan for defense spending decreases. 
Director Young stressed that long-term U.S. support for 
Taiwan, based on the TRA, will continue, and he suggested 
that people in Taiwan, a successful democracy, should have 
confidence they can shape the cross-Strait relationship in a 
positive way.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Academia Sinica's Institute of European and American 
Studies hosted a two-day international conference March 27-28 
on the "Taiwan Relations Act Entering its 30th Anniversary: 
Continuities, Changes, and Challenges."  Many of the 
conference participants tended to take a pro-Green stance, 
which is generally critical of the PRC and the Ma 
administration's policies to enhance cross-Strait relations. 
This cable summarizes some of the main points emphasized by 
participants in the conference. 
 
Beijing Softens Cross-Strait Approach 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) A number of conference participants predicted that 
the warming of cross-Strait relations will work in Beijing's 
favor.  In their opinion, PRC influence on Taiwan has 
increased under the Ma administration, limiting Taiwan's 
political options.  While China's objective (unification) has 
not changed, its approach has become more flexible.  Beijing, 
which is now attempting to "win hearts and minds" on Taiwan, 
has shifted its rhetoric from emphasizing that Taiwan is an 
"inalienable part of China" to a softer expression that "both 
Taiwan and the Mainland belong to one China." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Beijing has an interest in cooperating with the Ma 
administration to pursue its united front strategy, East-West 
Center Senior Fellow Denny Roy suggested.  However, he was 
not confident PRC leaders could move swiftly enough to take 
advantage of the opportunity to win over the Taiwan people. 
Beijing will be concerned about potential domestic political 
challenges if it provides an opening that might allow Taiwan 
to "escape," he explained.  Despite its softer approach to 
Taiwan itself, Beijing continues to try to 
de-internationalize the Taiwan issue, portraying it as a 
question that must be resolved by the Chinese on both sides 
of the Strait, conference participants observed. 
 
Worries About U.S. Support for Taiwan 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Some participants believed that the U.S. has played 
the role of a balancer in the U.S.-PRC-Taiwan triangular 
relationship, constraining actions by either Beijing or 
Taiwan that threatened to upset the status quo.  However, 
Taiwan's democratization and China's rise have made it more 
difficult for the U.S. to play this balancing role, cautioned 
former MAC Chairman Joseph Wu.  A number of scholars argued 
that Washington and Beijing had moved toward "co-management" 
of the Taiwan issue after the DPP's Chen Shui-bian was 
elected president in 2000.  As cross-Strait ties continue to 
improve, some worried, Taiwan may be pulled closer into 
China's orbit, resulting in "de facto unification."  In such 
a case, they suggested, Taiwan may become marginalized and 
the TRA irrelevant. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) One academic questioned Taiwan's strategic military 
value to the U.S. in the age of ICBMs, arguing that the U.S. 
no longer needed Taiwan as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier." 
Others countered that Taiwan's location is an asset, as it is 
 
TAIPEI 00000416  002 OF 003 
 
 
the only place to effectively monitor and possibly check 
China's military rise.  Growing Chinese assertiveness and 
increasing cross-Strait economic and military imbalance in 
China's favor may prompt the U.S. to reassess its longer term 
objectives and increase its involvement in the cross-Strait 
issue, a conference participant suggested. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Citing the rising economic and military power of 
the PRC, several other scholars worried that warming 
cross-Strait ties and the increased U.S. need for China's 
cooperation might cause a wavering in U.S. support for an 
"autonomous Taiwan."  Although President Ma has put forth a 
realistic "hard ROC" strategy to address the growing PLA 
threat, cross-Strait detente will decrease Taiwan's threat 
perception, which in turn will reduce public support for 
defense spending.  Moreover, Hong Kong University Professor 
Richard Hu suggested, cross-Strait detente and the perceived 
threat reduction could provide an opening for Beijing to urge 
the U.S. to decrease arms sales to Taiwan.  Beijing's goal is 
to establish a clear military advantage across the Strait, he 
added. 
 
What is the Status Quo? 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The meaning of the cross-Strait status quo varies 
greatly, not only between Taiwan, the US, and China, but also 
in Taiwan itself, Academia Sinica's Lin Cheng-yi observed. 
While the U.S. definition of status quo is deliberately 
vague, China's definition has been clear and consistent: 
There is one China and Taiwan is a part of that China.  In 
Taiwan itself, the DPP version of the status quo defines 
Taiwan as a de facto sovereign state, while the KMT views 
Taiwan as a part of the Republic of China established in 
¶1912.  According to Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) polling, 
most people in Taiwan support a continuation of the status 
quo and would say that Taiwan is neither part of the PRC nor 
an independent sovereign state. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Varied interpretations of the status quo are 
competing for public support in Taiwan, and so discussions of 
cross-Strait detente and Taiwan's future remain mired in 
domestic political differences.  Referring to these 
differences, one conference discussant characterized the 
situation as "one China and two Taiwans."  Taiwan would 
increase its leverage vis-a-vis the mainland if it could 
speak with one united voice, said National Sun Yat-sen 
University Professor Lin Wen-cheng.  However, frequent 
emotional arguments about cross-Strait issues prevent the 
development of a unified view, weakening Taiwan's position in 
dealing with the PRC. 
 
Democracy and Taiwan Identity 
----------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) While democratization has pulled Taiwan away from 
China, economic and other factors have served to draw the two 
sides of the Strait closer, Hong Kong Baptist University 
Professor Jean-Pierre Cabestan observed.  These contradictory 
trends have contributed to domestic political tensions and 
constrained the political options available to Taiwan leaders 
in their conduct of cross-Strait negotiations and relations 
with the U.S.  The difference in political systems across the 
Strait serves as a strong argument for the preservation of 
the status quo.  Although cross-Strait interactions are 
serving to improve mutual understanding, at the same time 
Taiwanese identity is increasingly taking on political in 
addition to cultural connotations. 
 
U.S. Support will Continue, Democracy an Important Asset 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Most of the local participants in the conference 
saw Taiwan as limited to a passive role in its relations with 
the PRC.  Director Young, however, underscored in his 
luncheon presentation that the warming of cross-Strait ties 
will open opportunities for Taiwan to influence the PRC to 
develop in positive directions.  Taiwan's successful 
 
TAIPEI 00000416  003 OF 003 
 
 
democratization is a special strength that should give the 
Taiwan people confidence to shape the future cross-Strait 
relationship. he suggested, adding that the U.S. supports 
dialogue and the improvement of cross-Strait relations.  The 
Director also emphasized that long-term U.S. support for 
Taiwan, based on the TRA, will continue. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) At a minimum, the pro-Green scholars want to 
preserve Taiwan's current de facto autonomy, but they worry 
the Ma administration may take irreversible steps in 
developing closer relations with China that will increasingly 
constrain Taiwan's options.  The Ma administration argues 
that Taiwan must enhance cross-Strait relations for economic 
reasons, but insists its moves will not compromise Taiwan's 
interests.  KMT scholars will have another opportunity to 
present their side of the argument when they participate in 
an upcoming TRA conference on April 12. 
 
YOUNG