VZCZCXRO8317
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #0388/01 0930116
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 030116Z APR 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1282
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9081
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0634
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 0102
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 2508
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 3053
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6999
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0198
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0520
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000388 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON TW
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN TAIWAN: DPP NOMINEE IN DEEP-GREEN TAINAN COUNTY 
SIGNALS BREAK WITH PAST 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Not normally accustomed to the political 
spotlight, deep-Green Tainan County, former President Chen's home 
district, grabbed headlines on April 1 when the DPP announced its 
nominee for this December's county magistrate race.  Despite some 
local DPP polls showing a clear edge for 73 year-old Mark Chen, a 
President Chen era-stalwart and popular former county magistrate, 
the DPP signaled a break with the past, nominating instead the 
younger Lee Chun-yee, a 50-year old five-time Legislative Yuan (LY) 
member.  Mark Chen thus far is not going quietly, stating that he 
intends to stay in the race until the finish.  With loyal supporters 
now lining up on each side of the DPP divide, the KMT senses it may 
have a chance to seize this normally safe deep-Green county in the 
December elections.  Meanwhile, the DPP headquarters appears ready 
to work frantically to restore unity and bring Mark Chen back into 
the fold without, however, giving him the nomination.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On April 1, DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen announced that the 
party would nominate LY member Lee Chun-yee as its nominee for this 
December's magistrate election in Tainan County, former President 
Chen's home county and political base.  The news set off feverish 
local media speculation, as the party chose to rebuff Mark Chen, a 
73 year-old former Foreign Minister and Presidential Office SYG 
under Chen Shui-bian.  Earlier efforts by senior DPP officials to 
persuade Mark Chen to step aside were unsuccessful, with Chen 
issuing a defiant press statement after the announcement insisting 
that although he would remain a DPP member, he would continue to 
pursue his candidacy.   DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen underscored the party 
would continue its efforts to negotiate with Mark Chen (Comment: 
i.e., persuade him to step aside). 
 
THE CANDIDATES: TWO OUT OF THREE TARRED BY CSB 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In the run up to the April 1 announcement, the three 
declared DPP candidates for the nomination were jockeying furiously 
for the party's blessing.  The 73 year-old Mark Chen was the most 
active, as supporters trumpeted his strong poll ratings (reportedly 
ahead of his rivals by at least 9 percentage points in some DPP 
polls) and lingering popularity from his two terms as county 
magistrate from 1993-2001.  (Note: Lee Chun-yee came out first in 
one type of poll recently conducted by the DPP.)  Nevertheless, the 
staunchly pro-independence Mark Chen is also closely associated with 
former President Chen, whom he served as Foreign Minister from 2004 
to 2006, then Presidential Office SYG, and later National Security 
Council SYG. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Mark Chen's two rivals represented the DPP's younger 
generation, 49 year-old four-time LY member Yeh Yi-jin and 50 
year-old five-time LY member Lee Chun-yee.  Yeh, a Tainan County 
native who received a Master's Degree in music education from 
Bridgeport University, was an early leading alternative to Mark 
Chen.  However, she reportedly garnered some criticism within the 
party for her association with former First Lady Wu Shu-jen. 
Recently, Yeh visited former President Chen in detention to seek his 
support for her candidacy.  Chen reportedly suggested a deal in 
which he would support her in return for her agreement to support 
him in a bid for Yeh's vacated Tainan County legislative seat. 
Although Yeh strongly denied that she proposed or agreed to any 
deal, the controversy over her meeting with Chen apparently 
undermined her chances to win the nomination. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In contrast, Lee Chun-yee, the DPP's eventual nominee, is 
closely associated with former DPP Presidential candidate Frank 
Hsieh's political faction and has spoken out frequently against 
corruption associated with former President Chen and his family.  A 
Public Administration Master's Graduate from National Chengchi 
University and co-founder of a pro-DPP Tainan County TV station, Lee 
worked as a reporter for Commons Daily prior to securing his LY seat 
in 1995, which he has held ever since.  In 1998, Lee was an AIT IV 
grantee and participated in a program which took him to Washington 
DC, New York, Cleveland, Seattle and Tucson. 
 
THE DECISION: NEW GENERATION BETTER FOR GRASS ROOTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
TAIPEI 00000388  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Lee's supporters have stressed that Lee was a good choice 
because of his clean local reputation and strong grass-roots 
organization.  DPP heavyweights in southern Taiwan, including 
Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu, also applauded the choice as a means of 
strengthening the DPP's younger generation and broadening the 
party's voter base.  A Kaohsiung City DPP official who attended the 
DPP Central Executive Committee meeting which decided on Lee told 
AIT/K that former President Chen's name was never mentioned in the 
meeting and the focus was on finding the strongest candidate based 
on more than just polls. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Nevertheless, AIT contacts in outgoing Tainan County 
Magistrate Su Huan-Chih's office suggested to us on April 2 that the 
specter of former President Chen playing a prominent and visible 
role in the county's December campaign haunted high-ranking DPP 
officials.  They worried that Mark Chen would not be able to resist 
the lure of the former President campaigning openly on his behalf, 
thereby continuing to tie the party to Chen Shui-bian and the 
corruption allegations against him.  Su himself has no love lost for 
Mark Chen, they pointed out, since the environmentally-aware Su, who 
was a legislator at the time, struggled in 2000 with then-Magistrate 
Mark Chen over a controversial power plant project. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) There is a broader problem here for the DPP, as an active 
role for Chen Shui-bian in just this one of 23 contested local 
offices this December would likely reverberate in all the election 
campaigns.  At a minimum, it would allow KMT candidates across the 
island to claim that the former president remains at the center of 
DPP politics, an argument that presumably would lose votes for the 
DPP throughout Taiwan. 
 
THE CONSEQUENCES: DEEP-GREEN SPLIT 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) In the immediate aftermath of Tsai's announcement, most 
local observers see no sign that Mark Chen intends to withdraw. 
Tainan County DPP officials told AIT that the party had no 
"respected elders" or "wise men" who could help resolve the impasse. 
 One even hoped that Lee would withdraw in favor of the more 
determined Mark Chen to spare the party an embarrassing electoral 
defeat in solid DPP territory.  DPP contacts in Kaohsiung told us 
that party rank and file found the selection process confusing and 
that Tsai undermined her stature among deep-Green adherents in the 
south by rejecting the still-popular Mark Chen.  On April 2, the 
Kaohsiung City DPP Chair told us that the party needed a consistent, 
island-wide process to select nominees, adding that since Tsai's 
announcement, his phone had been ringing "non-stop" questioning how 
the party arrived at the choice. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) With Taiwan's economy in the doldrums, our KMT contacts 
in Tainan County had been pessimistic about their chances in the 
county - until Tsai's announcement.  Running in 2005 against 
incumbent Magistrate Su (who was battling health problems at the 
time), the KMT candidate came tantalizingly close, ultimately losing 
to Su by only three percentage points (50.29 percent to 47.16 
percent).  Local observers predict that if Mark Chen and Lee both 
persist in their quest for the magistrate's seat, the KMT, which 
plans to select its nominee in June, would have a good chance to win 
former President Chen's home district.  Realizing this problem, the 
DPP will work to unify the party and bring Mark Chen back into the 
fold. 
 
CASTRO 
 
YOUNG