VZCZCXRO1839
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSM #0231/01 0971645
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 071645Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4277
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EU BO IS IR SY MW ZK BM SP SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH VIEWS ON APRIL GAERC AGENDA 
 
Classified By: A/DCM MARC KOEHLER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: In an April 1 meeting, EU Deputy 
Correspondent Jonas Wendel discussed the problematic 
invitation of Pres. Lukashenko to the May 7 Eastern 
Partnership launch; the EU's policy plans with Israel, Syria 
and Iran; upcoming (and rescheduled) summits, and Montenegro. 
 Wendel told us he attends nearly all ministerial-level EU 
meetings with Swedish FM Carl Bildt, and that his information 
to poloff reflects Bildt's thoughts and plans.  End Summary. 
 
Lukashensko and the Eastern Partnership Launch 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Wendel said EU FMs are keenly aware of the "game" 
Pres. Lukashenko could play surrounding the May 7 launch of 
the Eastern Partnership (EaP), but the Czechs are unable to 
get consensus on how to handle the conundrum.  Sweden's 
position remains the same: Lukashenko should not be invited 
because, Wendel told poloff, Bildt thinks he is 
"unpredictable."  The latest EU plan is a "gentlemen's 
agreement" with Lukashenko whereby he would be officially 
invited, but would send a minister to attend in his place. 
Wendel said that Spanish FM Moratinos visited Belarus on 
March 23 and reported Lukashenko agreed to not attend the EaP 
launch if he is invited.  Nonetheless, there are fears that 
Lukashenko might still appear at the EaP, violating the 
agreement, Wendel said. 
 
¶3. (C) "Everything is playing into Lukashenko's hands," 
continued Wendel, because the EU must reach out to Belarus to 
counter Russia's growing influence.  If Belarus recognizes 
Abkhazia and South Ossettia after the May 7 launch, the EU 
would lack leverage to push back: there are no punitive 
provisions in the EaP, such as removal of a country from the 
partnership.  Moreover, a disgruntled Georgia might pull out 
of the EaP, while recognition by Belarus could start a domino 
effect of recognition.  Wendel said a few EU members stated 
that the "era of ideology and high principles is over"; the 
EU has a partnership with Russia, and one with Belarus is no 
different.  Still, a human rights dialogue between the EU and 
Belarus will begin after the EaP, Wendel said. 
 
Association Agreement with Israel 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) A large portion of the April GAERC agenda will be 
devoted to the annual evaluation of all of the EU's action 
plans with non-EU members.  The EU's association agreement 
with Israel will be the most notable topic of discussion. 
Wendel said the current EU-Israel association agreement 
expires April 10 and at the very minimum it will be renewed 
in its current form.  Israel wants to upgrade the agreement, 
but the work needed to do so likely will not be concluded in 
the near future.  More importantly, Israel must "firmly 
commit" to the two state solution, said Wendel, for the EU to 
agree to upgrade the agreement.  The EU-Israel Association 
Council might meet on May 18 to discuss a stronger agreement. 
 
Association Agreement with Syria 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) There is general EU agreement to proceed with an 
association agreement with Syria, Wendel claimed, but some 
members want to wait until after the June election in 
Lebanon.  Sweden wants to make Syria feel more included in 
the EU as a way to get Syria to be more helpful in the Middle 
East Peace Process, Wendel said.  Syria needs to be given a 
reason to move more toward the West, away from Iran.  No 
country is against the association agreement, Wendel stated, 
but the British want Syria first to commit to a number of 
conditions, including the two-state policy.  France wants to 
wait first for the U.S. to announce its Syria policy. 
 
Iran 
---- 
 
¶6. (C) Discussion on Iran was limited at the March Gymnich, 
but Iran might be discussed further on the margins of the 
April GAERC by the EU-8 (Britain, France, Germany, Spain, 
Italy, Poland, Czech Republic and Sweden).  Wendel said no EU 
member is categorically opposed to autonomous sanctions, but 
FM Bildt believes that this step should be the last option. 
Bildt first wants to fully exhaust the UN track, especially 
as Russia appears to be more cooperative.  Wendel cited the 
example of the Russians not delivering the S-300 missiles to 
Iran.  Sweden also hopes the Iranians will be invited to the 
June conference on Afghanistan that Italy is planning to host 
as the current G-8 leader. 
 
Montenegro's Accession 
---------------------- 
 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000231  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7. (C) FM Bildt is "very concerned" that Montenegro's 
application has been politicized, said Wendel.  Germany 
continues to delay processing Montenegro's membership 
application though it has agreed to give the application to 
the Commission if the Commission holds it until 2011. 
Montenegro is currently on the agenda for the April GAERC, 
but might again be removed, Wendel said. 
 
Burma 
----- 
 
¶8. (C) Burma sanctions will be renewed in April and the visa 
ban list might be updated. An official statement might be 
made against the regime, Wendel reported. 
 
EU Summits and Troikas 
---------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) The 11th EU-China summit that was postponed under the 
French Presidency is set for May 20; there will be a second 
EU-China summit on November 30 (tentative date) in Stockholm, 
Wendel reported.  It is possible other summits lacking firm 
dates will be pushed to Sweden's presidency, he continued, 
including the summits with Pakistan and South Korea (pending 
the likely passage of a Free Trade Agreement).  The Swedes 
are preparing to host these summits if necessary.  Sweden 
will organize a meeting between the EU Troika and the Central 
Asians in November, and will organize some seminars on 
Central Asia in Brussels surrounding the troika. 
SILVERMAN