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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0156/01 0981517
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081517Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8152
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 0509

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000156 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIAN ELECTIONS: GRUEVSKI IN NEAR-COMPLETE 
CONTROL 
 
REF: SKOPJE 146 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU)  In a second round of presidential and municipal 
elections assessed as generally meeting international 
standards, ruling VMRO-DPMNE,s Gjorge Ivanov won by almost a 
two-to-one margin over SDSM opponent Ljubomir Frckoski. 
Macedonia,s ethnic Albanian population essentially boycotted 
the presidential race, which barely (and perhaps 
suspiciously) met the 40% turnout requirement.  VMRO also 
took 55 mayoral seats plus the Skopje mayor,s office, a huge 
increase over the 21 mayoral seats the party won in the last 
municipal elections.  Opposition SDSM took only seven mayoral 
seats, and is putting all its hopes for the resurrection of 
the party in outgoing President Branko Crvenkovski, expected 
to take back the party helm after he leaves office.  The 
largest e-Albanian party, DUI, lost the key municipalities of 
Tetovo, Gostivar, and -- apparently -- Aracinovo; e-Albanian 
politics here are now even more fragmented and complex. 
Appeals and fallout from the heavy snow just prior to the 
March 21 first round will mean yet one more round in some 
mayoral races on April 19.  End summary. 
 
Elections Generally Met International Standards, But Problems 
Remain 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  OSCE/ODIHR,s observer mission assessed the second 
round of elections as meeting "most OSCE and Council of 
Europe commitments and standards for democratic elections" 
and noted improvements from the first round to the second in 
administration of the voting and counting, and in reduction 
of family and proxy voting.  Following ODIHR,s first- round 
assessment that family and proxy voting had increased over 
June 2008, the State Electoral Commission (SEC) -- on the 
international community,s urging -- issued explicit 
instructions to Local Electoral Boards (LEBs) emphasizing 
their responsibility to prevent family/proxy voting while 
allowing and logging acceptable types of voter assistance (to 
the illiterate or disabled).   ODIHR and Embassy teams saw a 
substantial reduction in family/proxy voting in the second 
round, and an overall increase in LEBs, focus on procedural 
details, including logging the names of election monitors. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  While citing some improvements between rounds, 
ODIHR,s assessment also noted increased reports of pressure 
and intimidation of voters by public administration officials 
and party activists -- chiefly on behalf of VMRO -- ahead of 
the second round, noting that these reports "continued to 
cloud the generally positive assessment of the election 
observation mission."  The observer mission also cited the 
sluggish response of the SEC to parties, appeals in the 
first round (reftel) as problematic. 
 
President-Elect Ivanov 
-------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  As expected, PM Gruevski,s hand-picked candidate, 
Gjorge Ivanov won handily over SDSM,s Ljubomir Frckoski, 
getting more than 451,000 votes to Frckoski,s approximately 
263,000.  With a suspicious late-day surge in voting, the 40% 
voter turnout threshold was met, with just over 42% of 
registered voters casting ballots in the presidential 
campaign.  Nearly 45,000 voters cast invalid ballots, either 
choosing neither candidate or writing in their own choices 
(with quite a few choosing Chuck Norris), with the highest 
rates of invalid ballots in ethnic Albanian areas; without 
these ballots the 40% threshold would not have been met. 
Turnout  for the presidential vote in ethnic Albanian areas 
was about 14% nationwide, with some areas seeing turnout 
below 1%. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Ambassador Reeker met briefly with President-elect 
Ivanov April 7 to congratulate him on his victory, 
highlighting the need for Ivanov to reach out to the 
e-Albanian community.  Additionally, the Ambassador suggested 
that the President-elect use the transition period (Ivanov 
will take office on May 12) to reach out across political 
lines following this highly partisan campaign to demonstrate 
that he will be a President to all citizens of Macedonia. 
Ivanov had little of substance to offer, but noted that he 
intended to invite the heads of state of all neighboring 
countries to participate in the inaugural festivities (note: 
a formal inauguration is not traditional in Macedonia), and 
will determine the scale of the event based on RSVPs.  Ivanov 
said he is also considering hosting an inter-religious prayer 
meeting as part of his inauguration at the newly-erected 
 
SKOPJE 00000156  002 OF 003 
 
 
Mother Theresa memorial home. 
 
What Opposition? 
--------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  VRMO-DPMNE,s victory in these elections was 
crushing.  In addition to Ivanov,s two to one win over 
Frckoski in the Presidential elections, VMRO won mayoral 
races in 55 municipalities plus Skopje, making huge gains 
over the 2005 municipal elections, where VMRO took only 21 
mayoral seats.  SDSM and SDSM-backed candidates won only 
seven municipalities versus the 36 it won in 2005.  Most of 
the mayoral races were much closer than the presidential 
race, and in many municipalities VMRO won by narrow margins 
to take mayoral seats where there has never been a non-SDSM 
mayor, including Gevgelija and Berovo.  SDSM can only claim 
one of Skopje,s ten municipalities, Karposh (which was 
actually won by a candidate from SDSM-partner LDP). 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  SDSM,s now awaits President Branko Crvenkovski,s 
relinquishing of office (May 12) and return to formal 
leadership of the party.  Interim SDSM President Zoran Zaev 
told us ahead of elections that he would consider mayoral 
wins in 20 municipalities a major victory, perhaps sufficient 
for him to take on Crvenkovski for the party helm.  With only 
seven wins, including his own in Strumica, Zaev is likely to 
simply pass the torch back to Crvenkovski, who has a tough 
road ahead of him to rebuild a party in shambles. 
 
Elections Leave Ethnic-Albanian Political Future Murky 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Although DUI mayors won in 12 of Macedonia,s 16 
predominately e-Albanian municipalities (down from 13 in 2005 
municipal elections) and DUI seems to have stayed a bid by 
e-Macedonian Muslim/Torbeshi candidate Fiat Canoski to shift 
the ethnic power balance in the volatile, lakeside 
municipality of Struga, DUI is disappointed with its 
performance in these elections.  DUI lost control of two of 
Macedonia,s most important e-Albanian municipalities, Tetovo 
and Gostivar, and has apparently lost a close race to New 
Democracy (ND) in Arachinovo, a suburb of Skopje that has 
long been a National Liberation Army (NLA), and thus DUI, 
stronghold.  While VMRO all but wiped out its opposition in 
these elections, its coalition partner is now faced with more 
opposition than before.   DPA,s candidate Sadi Bexheti won 
in his party,s "must-win" race, Tetovo, giving wavering DPA 
only one mayoral seat, but in the most important ethnic 
Albanian city in Macedonia.  Independent candidate Rufi 
Osmani,s landslide victory in Gostivar almost certainly 
means the formation of yet another new e-Albanian party, and 
given Osmani,s history and his base the party will likely be 
very vocal and hyper-critical of DUI. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Aside from Imer Selmani,s impressive performance 
in the first round presidential elections, ND,s results in 
its first elections were disappointing.  Should ND,s narrow 
victory in Aracinovo be confirmed, the party can walk away 
from these elections with modest credibility and be able to 
continue its growth.  Ultimately these elections show deep 
ferment and continuing division in the e-Albanian political 
scene.  DUI remains in power, but that power is faltering as 
its achievements in the coalition have come under harsher 
criticism.  With Tetovo, DPA survives and Menduh Thaci will 
undoubtedly continue to be a thorn in DUI,s side.  ND and 
Osmani,s future party will further fragment the picture with 
presumably contrasting ideologies and followings substantial 
enough to be relevant but too modest to make a significant 
impact. 
 
Municipal Round Three 
--------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Five municipalities will certainly have a third 
round of elections, as polling stations in  municipalities 
that were closed due to the snow or annulment of voting in 
the first round had their first round of municipal election 
on April 5, and the municipalities will likely hold the 
second round of their mayoral races on April 19 -- Orthodox 
Easter.  The SEC is now reviewing appeals of results in 
polling stations in other municipalities and will make 
decisions late this week or early next week on where there 
may be re-runs of second round municipal elections.  Many 
victory margins were razor thin, and so annulments of results 
based on irregularities could result in re-runs in a number 
of key races, including Ohrid, Veles, Struga, Tetovo, 
Aracinovo as well as a number of smaller municipalities. 
ODIHR,s observer mission plans to monitor the appeals 
process through this week, but not to send monitors for a 
 
SKOPJE 00000156  003 OF 003 
 
 
third round. 
 
Comment: Gruevski In Charge 
---------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  These elections leave Gruevski and VMRO in almost 
complete control of the country and with the largest 
e-Albanian party weaker.  Yet Gruevski carries this mandate 
toward an uncertain future.  Macedonia,s economy, already 
weak, could turn sharply downward in the coming months.  The 
name issue remains unsolved, and with it Euro-Atlantic 
integration is stalled.  Gruevski,s response to nearly every 
issue is to take whatever course would further consolidate 
his own power against an already defeated opposition.  Now 
the excuses have run out and it is time to engage on a 
constructive way forward. 
REEKER