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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 SEOUL 000640 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 20, 2009 
 
TOP HEADLINES 
------------- 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
Strengthening Domestic Demand is the Way for ROK Economy to Survive; 
Heavy Dependence on Exports Might Lead ROK Economy to "Collapse" 
Like Singapore's Economy Did 
 
JoongAng Ilbo 
No Cuts Seen in Scholarship Funding in This Economic Slump 
 
Dong-a Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun 
Prosecutors Accuse Former President Roh's Wife 
of Lying in Bribe Case 
 
Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Segye Ilbo, All TVs 
Two Koreas to Hold Talks about Kaesong Industrial Complex... 
Inter-Korean Relations at a Critical Juncture 
 
 
DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS 
--------------------- 
 
The two Koreas will meet tomorrow to discuss matters regarding the 
joint Kaesong Industrial Complex in the North. Pyongyang proposed 
the talks on April 18, saying that it has something important to say 
regarding the joint complex. (All) 
 
Experts speculated that the North might use the meeting to threaten 
to shut down the industrial complex should Seoul join the U.S.-led 
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) aimed at interdicting the 
transfer of weapons of mass destruction. (All) 
 
The Lee Myung-bak Administration once again delayed its announcement 
to join the PSI following the North's request for tomorrow's talks. 
President Lee reportedly accepted a request by Unification Minister 
Hyun In-taek to override the Foreign Ministry and postpone the 
announcement to join the PSI. (Chosun) 
 
A spokesman for the General Staff of the North Korean People's Army, 
in an April 18 statement, stepped up its saber rattling against the 
ROK's joining of the PSI, arguing: "The Lee Myung-bak group of 
traitors must not forget that Seoul is only 50 kilometers away from 
the Military Demarcation Line." (All) 
 
 
INTERNATIONAL NEWS 
----------------- 
 
President Barack Obama offered a spirit of cooperation to America's 
neighbors in the western hemisphere at the April 18 Summit of the 
Americas in Port of Spain, Trinidad. Newspapers showed pictures of 
President Obama shaking hands with Venezuela's leftist leader and 
longtime U.S. critic, Hugo Chavez. (All) 
 
 
MEDIA ANALYSIS 
-------------- 
 
-North Korea 
------------ 
North Korea's April 18 proposal to hold inter-Korean talks tomorrow 
(April 21) regarding the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex in the 
North received wide coverage.  Citing local experts, most of the ROK 
media speculated that North Korea might try to link the ROK's 
planned participation in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security 
Initiative (PSI), which is aimed at interdicting the transfer of 
weapons of mass destruction, with the fate of the Kaesong Industrial 
Complex. 
 
In a related development, the ROK media took note of an April 18 
statement by a spokesman of the General Staff of the North Korean 
People's Army that Seoul is just 50 kilometers away from the 
 
SEOUL 00000640  002 OF 006 
 
 
Military Demarcation Line.  The ROK media viewed this remark as 
reminiscent of the North's 1994 threat: "Seoul is not far from here. 
 If there is a war, it will become a sea of fire." 
 
The ROK media also reported that the Lee Myung-bak Administration 
once again delayed its announcement to join the PSI following the 
North's request for tomorrow's talks.  The media noted that it is 
the third time that Seoul has postponed the scheduled announcement 
as tensions between the two Koreas continue to grow over the North's 
recent rocket launch and the drawn-out detention of an ROK worker in 
the Kaesong Industrial Complex. 
 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "North Korea's verbal 
provocations have reached their threshold and it is only a matter of 
time before the North puts those into action.  The ROK and the U.S. 
should deter North Korea from moving toward that end. ... Regarding 
the issue of fully participating in the PSI, the ROKG should take a 
careful approach, while weighing the benefits of its full 
participation against the losses, instead of wavering in the face of 
North Korea's threats." 
 
Conservative Dong-a Ilbo's editorial argued: "Since March of last 
year when North Korea prohibited ROK officials from crossing the 
border , (the North) has continuously used the Industrial Complex as 
a means to get its way in inter-Korean relations.  If the North 
continues to stick to its hostile stance, the ROK needs to declare 
its intention to shut down the complex.  If (North Korea's actions) 
cause damage to ROK companies and endanger ROK citizens, the complex 
should be shut down." 
 
-Summit of the Americas 
----------------------- 
Most of the ROK media gave front-and inside-page play to the April 
18 Summit of the Americas in Port of Spain, Trinidad, in which 
President Barack Obama offered a spirit of cooperation to America's 
neighbors in the hemisphere and showed pictures of President Obama 
shaking hands with Venezuela's leftist leader and longtime U.S. 
critic, Hugo Chavez. 
 
In a related development, conservative Chosun Ilbo's front-page 
report summed up President Obama's foreign policy as follows: 
Washington will reconcile with countries that are willing to take 
America's "outstretched hands," but will take strong action against 
countries that reject the outstretched hands.  To bear this out, the 
report, citing diplomatic sources in Washington, noted that the 
Obama Administration is apparently getting angry with North Korea, 
in contrast to its conciliatory gestures toward other "rogue" states 
such as Cuba and Iran, because of the North's refusal to enter into 
dialogue (with the U.S.) following its rocket launch, as well as its 
expulsion of IAEA monitors and a State Department representative. 
 
 
OPINIONS/EDITORIALS 
------------------- 
 
HOLD FIRM AGAINST N. KOREA'S THREAT 
(Dong-a Ilbo, April 20, 2009, Page 31) 
 
To prevent the ROK from fully joining the Proliferation Security 
Initiative, North Korea offered last week to hold inter-Korean talks 
regarding a joint industrial complex in Kaesong while also reving up 
its bellicose rhetoric against the ROK Saturday.  The communist 
country, which has detained a Hyundai Asan employee for 22 days, is 
now threatening military action against Seoul.  Given the North's 
full offensive by combining the fate of the complex with the 
initiative, the possibility of Pyongyang acting on its threat cannot 
be ruled out.  As such, the ROK must recognize the gravity of the 
situation and respond resolutely.  By mobilizing its full 
capabilities in contingency management and responses, Seoul must 
prevent the Korean Peninsula from plunging into chaos through the 
North's provocation. 
 
When the North made the proposal to hold talks Thursday, it chose 
Tuesday as the date.  Pyongyang chose the date after Seoul delayed 
 
SEOUL 00000640  003 OF 006 
 
 
full participation in the initiative to Sunday from the originally 
scheduled date of April 15.  After the North's offer, Seoul once 
again postponed its participation after the inter-Korean talks, 
though it denied that the postponement had anything to do with the 
talks.  Seoul was being manipulated by Pyongyang, which saw right 
through the ROK's move. 
 
The two Koreas will meet in Kaesong, but it's not clear whether 
their talks will result in the release of the detained employee.  By 
detaining a South Korean, the North violated an inter-Korean 
agreement that guarantees the basic rights of employees in the joint 
complex.  Furthermore, it has ignored the international practice of 
guaranteeing a detainee his or her right to make contact by refusing 
to accept the ROK's request for access to the employee.  Pyongyang, 
however, allowed the U.S. to talk to two American journalists 
through the Swedish Embassy in Pyongyang.  The detention of the 
Hyundai Asan employee clearly demonstrates that the North's slogan 
"Koreans Together" is empty rhetoric.  The North is likely to turn 
the inter-Korean talks into a propagandistic event. 
 
The delegation led by the ROK's Unification Ministry must speak out 
against the North's inhumane act and urge prompt release of the 
detainee.  The delegation should also flatly reject the North's 
attempt to link the humanitarian issue to either the initiative or 
the complex. 
 
Since March of last year when North Korea prohibited ROK officials 
from crossing the border, (the North) has continuously used the 
Industrial Complex as a means to get its way in inter-Korean 
relations.  If the North continues to stick to its hostile stance, 
the ROK needs to declare its intention to shut down the complex.  If 
(North Korea's actions) cause damage to ROK companies and endanger 
ROK citizens, the complex should be shut down. 
 
Apparently, Seoul has delayed its full participation in the 
initiative twice so it does not further provoke Pyongyang.  If the 
North continues to threaten the ROK, however, Seoul cannot continue 
to back off.  What should not be repeated is the practice of 
previous left-leaning governments to gain nothing in exchange for 
giving everything to the North.  North Korea must know that the Lee 
Myung-bak Administration is different from previous governments. 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
SEOUL MUST NOT BE SWAYED BY N. KOREAN BLACKMAIL 
(Chosun  Ilbo, April 20, 2009, Page 35) 
 
North Korea on Sunday called UN condemnation of its rocket launch 
and the ROK's move to participate in the U.S-led Proliferation 
Security Initiative a "declaration of war against us" and muttered 
ominously that Seoul is "only 50 km from the Demilitarized Zone." 
The North has resumed the blackmail it used during the first nuclear 
crisis in 1994, when it threatened to turn Seoul into "a sea of 
fire." 
 
The North deploys some 1,000-odd 170 mm self-propelled guns and 240 
mm multiple rocket launchers along the DMZ that have the Seoul 
metropolitan area within their range.  The long-range guns are 
capable of firing between 7,000 and 16,000 shells per hour, 
according to the ROK military. 
 
The Combined ROK and U.S. Forces are also capable of attacking all 
of North Korea the moment the North assaults the ROK with long-range 
guns. In that standoff, even verbal blackmail is dangerous, so 
Pyongyang is no longer tolerable. 
 
The North claims the UN condemnation of its rocket launch and 
Seoul's plan to join the PSI threaten it.  But the entire 
international community, Pyongyang allies China and Russia included, 
objected to the rocket launch. The UN Security Council adopted a 
chairman's statement, just a grade lower than a resolution, calling 
for sanctions.  China and Russia agreed to the statement, which maps 
 
SEOUL 00000640  004 OF 006 
 
 
out a formula for enforcing sanctions set out in the Resolution 1718 
of 2006.  Before the North threatens to go to war with the ROK, it 
should ask its protector China why it agreed with the UNSC 
statement. 
 
The assertion that the ROK's membership in the PSI constitutes a 
declaration of war is also preposterous.  Pyongyang has no reason to 
fear the PSI if it does not export nuclear weapons and missiles or 
imports such items from abroad.  The detention and search of North 
Korean vessels in ROK waters is already permitted under an 
inter-Korean agreement signed in August 2005. 
 
Last Thursday, North Korea sent a message inviting a responsible ROK 
official to come to a meeting on Tuesday to hear an announcement on 
an "important matter" concerning the Kaesong Industrial Complex. 
The North could announce restrictions that would effectively close 
down the industrial park. 
 
An ROK employee of Hyundai Asan, the operator of tour projects in 
North Korea, has been held incommunicado in the North for 21 days. 
A day after the government said last Wednesday that it would delay 
membership in the PSI, North Korea sent the message.  Upon receiving 
it, the government postponed the announcement, planned for Saturday, 
again until after the inter-Korean meeting.  The government is going 
back and forth in vital policies directly linked to our national 
security. 
 
Pyongyang has resumed its grandstanding.  It is threatening the 
Kaesong industrial park, from which it earns over US$34 million a 
year, and ignores requests by the South Korean, who is held on 
spying charges, to see a lawyer, because the North can see that the 
confused ROK government can be blackmailed. 
 
The government must look carefully at its North Korea policy and the 
Seoul-Washington alliance.  North Korea's verbal provocations have 
reached their threshold and it is only a matter of time before the 
North puts those into action.  The ROK and the U.S. should deter 
North Korea from moving toward that end and come up with specific 
countermeasures.  Regarding the issue of fully participating in the 
PSI, the ROKG should take a careful approach, while weighing the 
benefits of its full participation against the losses, instead of 
wavering in the face of North Korea's threats. 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
WHAT IS THE EFFECTIVE COUNTERMEASURE AGAINST NORTH KOREA'S 
INCREASINGLY HARSH THREATS 
(JoongAng Ilbo, April 20, 2009, Page 42) 
 
North Korea's saber-rattling against the ROK is intensifying. 
However, the ROKG has limited options to counter these threats since 
North Korea has taken an ROK employee of the Kaesong Industrial 
Complex into custody.  The ROKG has been milling about in confusion 
over becoming a full-fledged member of the Proliferation Security 
Initiative (PSI) aimed at preventing the spread of weapons of mass 
destruction.  Against this backdrop, North Korea proposed on April 
21 to hold an inter-Korean meeting for the first time (since the Lee 
Myung-bak Administration took office). 
 
North Korea has ratcheted up its threats against the ROK over (the 
ROK's full participation in) the PSI.  The Committee for Peaceful 
Unification of the Fatherland threatened to construe the ROK's full 
participation in the PSI as a "declaration of war."  The General 
Staff of North Korea's Korean People's Army is even threatening 
military action against Seoul.  The General Staff's bellicose 
statement that Seoul is just 50km away from the Military Demarcation 
Line (MDL) is reminiscent of North Korea's 'sea of fire' remark in 
¶1993.  North Korea seems to hint at its ability to attack Seoul 
while avoiding explicit rhetoric to create instability within ROK 
society and to divide public opinion. 
 
North Korea's saber-rattling, which deserves condemnation, has been 
 
SEOUL 00000640  005 OF 006 
 
 
meticulously carried out.  When the ROKG announced its plan to join 
the PSI ahead of the North's rocket launch, North Korea detained an 
ROK worker from the Kaesong Industrial Complex.  After the rocket 
launch, North Korea (intentionally) leaked the news of the detention 
to the ROK and then proposed holding an inter-Korean meeting, 
causing the ROK to delay the ROK's PSI announcement.  In relation to 
its PSI policy, the ROKG disregarded the unexpected "detention of 
the ROK worker'.  Related ministries such as the Foreign Ministry 
and Unification Ministry did not coordinate sufficiently and 
thoroughly on how North Korea might use this detention. 
 
What matters is (what the ROK should do) after the inter-Korean 
talks.  For now, it is hard to predict what stance North Korea will 
take during the inter-Korean talks.  There are various forecasts 
ranging from an optimistic scenario of releasing the detained worker 
to a pessimistic one of shutting down the Kaesong Industrial 
Complex.  However, it seems that North Korea will attempt to divide 
public opinion to block the ROKG from fully joining the PSI, thereby 
causing the ROKG difficulty.  Therefore, the ROKG should thoroughly 
consider all possibilities to avoid running into this confusion 
again.  First of all, the ROKG hopes to strategically adjust the 
timing of the announcement although it is fundamentally committed to 
fully joining the PSI.  The ROKG should maintain this position even 
after April 21.  Moreover, the ROKG should clarify its basic 
principle that the detention is a humanitarian issue and that the 
PSI participation is a matter of international cooperation.  The 
ROKG's confusing message would once again spark public criticism. 
 
No government can carry out an effective policy without public 
support.  To win public support, the government should implement a 
strategic and thorough policy.  At the moment, the detainment of the 
ROK worker and the PSI participation are pending issues.  However, 
the ROKG should prepare an effective countermeasure against North 
Korea's security threats for the mid- and long term.  If these 
tensions continue, it could lead to the closing of the Kaesong 
Industrial Complex and military skirmishes. 
 
 
FEATURES 
-------- 
 
U.S. MAY PREFER FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION TO TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO 
AFGHANISTAN 
(Seoul Shinmun, April 18, 2009, Page 2) 
 
By Washington correspondent Kim Gyun-mi and reporters Lee Jong-lac 
and Kim Mi-gyeong 
 
While the ROKG and the USG discuss ways to support Afghanistan, the 
U.S. (reportedly) made noteworthy remarks that it prefers the ROK to 
financially contribute about 100 million dollars (130 billion won) 
per year to its Afghanistan troop deployment.  Concerned about 
negative domestic sentiment about a military deployment to 
Afghanistan, the ROKG is reviewing ways to provide financial support 
(to Afghanistan) as Japan does.  This scenario, however, is also 
expected to kindle controversy.  In a separate measure, the ROK 
agreed with the U.S. to provide conditional and unconditional aid 
worth 200 million dollars to Pakistan over four years. 
 
On April 16, Grand National Party representative Hong, Jung-wook, 
who attended the 'Seoul-Washington Forum' organized by the Korea 
Foundation and the Brookings Institution held at the Brookings 
Institution in Washington, said that the problem is that mixed 
signals are coming from the U.S.  He noted that U.S. Ambassador to 
the ROK Kathleen Stephens supposedly said that the U.S. may prefer 
(the ROK's) financial contribution, but that others say that the 
U.S. prefers troop deployment.  Representative Hong added that from 
what he heard, the financial contribution would amount to 100 
million dollars per year.  Because the U.S. disclosed its preference 
for (the ROK's) financial contribution to its military dispatch for 
the first time and specifically set the amount at 100 million 
dollars per year, it is drawing attention.  An annual expenditure of 
100 million dollars is similar to the 134.8 billion to 152.8 billion 
won required for the ROK deployment to Iraq from 2004 to 2006 before 
 
SEOUL 00000640  006 OF 006 
 
 
the Zaytun unit was recalled. 
 
During an April 17 phone call with Seoul Shinmun, a key Blue House 
official said low level discussions regarding a financial 
contribution worth 100 million to Afghanistan are ongoing.  He added 
that these discussions have not gained momentum yet, but that such 
an option is being discussed.  The official said that the ROKG is 
reviewing this issue but has not received an official request from 
the USG. 
 
A high-ranking official at the Foreign Ministry said that during the 
Paris Donors' Conference in June last year, the ROKG announced its 
plan to provide an additional 30 million dollars to Afghanistan from 
this year to 2011.  He added that the ROKG is seeking to expand the 
size of its aid and increase the number of Provincial Reconstruction 
Team (PRT) personnel. 
 
Meanwhile, the ROKG decided to provide 200 million dollars of 
Official Development Assistance (ODA) from this year to 2012 to help 
reconstruction efforts in Pakistan in consultation with the ROK and 
U.S.  The ROKG pledged to provide 180 million dollars through the 
Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF) and 20 million dollars 
of conditional aid through the Korea International Cooperation 
Agency (KOICA). 
 
 
 
STEPHENS