VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSG #0404/01 1191137
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291137Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4872
INFO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 1466
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 6155
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR BRASILIA 0880
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 4377
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 3947
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 2072
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 2338
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000404 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: CHILE 2009 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS PRIMER 
 
REF: A) Santiago 367 
B) Santiago 270 
C) 07 Santiago 1993 
D) 08 Santiago 126 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: Chile's presidential elections will take place in 
December 2009.  While the two main coalitions have their candidates 
-- Eduardo Frei for the ruling Concertacion coalition and Sebastian 
Pinera for the opposition coalition Alianza -- a number of other 
contenders remain in the game.  With eight months to go, the 
competition is beginning to heat up.  Here is a look at the 
electoral process and the current issues in play in Chile's upcoming 
national elections.  End Summary. 
 
Presidential Elections:  Fifty plus One to Win 
--------------- ------------ ----------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Chile's presidential elections are currently scheduled to 
take place on Friday, December 11.  (Note:  The government is 
putting forth legislation that, if approved, would change the 
elections to Sunday, December 13, in order to avoid the economic 
side-effects of an additional holiday in 2009.  End note.)  Election 
day is a holiday in Chile and alcohol sales are prohibited beginning 
the evening before.  The president-elect will take office in March 
2010 and serve a four-year term, without the possibility of 
immediate re-election. 
 
¶3.  (U) In order to win in the first round of voting, a candidate 
must receive 50 percent of the votes plus one.  If no single 
candidate receives fifty percent -- a likely scenario in this year's 
race (Ref A) -- a second round of voting will take place in January 
¶2010.  Because the Christmas and New Year's holidays mark the 
beginning of Chile's summer vacation season, many voters are often 
away from their polling place for the second round of presidential 
elections.  As there are no absentee voter mechanisms in place, 
those individuals who cannot vote because they are geographically 
too distant will have to abstain. 
 
Presidential Candidates -- Eight Months and Counting 
--------------------- ----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Candidates for president currently include: 
 
-- Senator Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle is a Christian Democrat, son of 
an ex-President (Frei Montalva 1964-1970), and former President 
himself (1994-2000).  Frei recently won the ruling coalition primary 
(Ref B) to become the single Concertacion candidate representing the 
Socialist Party (PS), the Party for Democracy (PPD), the Radical 
Social Democrat Party (PRSD), and his own Christian Democrats (DC). 
 
-- Sebastian Pinera, who lost to Michelle Bachelet in 2006, is the 
opposition Alianza coalition candidate, representing his own party, 
National Renewal (RN), and the Independent Democratic Union party 
(UDI). 
 
-- Senator Adolfo Zaldivar, who was expelled from the DC at the end 
of 2007 (Ref C), is running with support from the Regional 
Independent Party (PRI). 
 
-- Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami, PS, is running without having left 
his party despite the Concertacion proclamation of Frei as its 
single candidate. 
 
-- Senator Alejandro Navarro left the Socialist party to represent 
the "Broad Social Movement" (Movimiento Amplio Social, or MAS). 
 
-- Jorge Arrate left the Socialist party to run for president.  He 
was recently selected to represent the Communist/Humanist coalition 
"Together We Can" (Junto Podemos, or JP). 
 
Aging Voters and Historical Voting Patterns 
------------------ ------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (U) Chile's voters -- and their political allegiances 
-- have changed little in the last twenty years.  A majority of 
Chile's electorate of roughly eight million are the same voters who 
registered to participate in the 1988 plebiscite that ousted 
dictator Pinochet and ushered in the transition to democracy.  It is 
an aging population due to the fact that few younger citizens 
register to vote.  While new legislation to make registration 
 
automatic and voting voluntary has been approved by Congress, it is 
unlikely that automatic registration will be implemented in time for 
this year's presidential election (Ref D). 
 
¶6.  (U) Relatively few younger Chileans have registered to vote, so 
electoral decisions rest largely in the hands of the Pinochet-era 
generation.  Most of these voters still vote along the divide of the 
1988 plebiscite:  those that voted no against the Pinochet 
dictatorship (Concertacion) and those that voted for the 
continuation of the military government (Alianza).  While many older 
center-left voters may be tired of the Concertacion, they may not be 
able to bring themselves to vote for a rightist candidate like 
Pinera (though he has declared that he himself voted no in 1988). 
Many on the left will choose to vote for a minority candidate in the 
first round and then give their support to the Concertacion in an 
eventual runoff. 
 
¶7.  (U) In 1989 and 1993, the Concertacion won the presidency in the 
first round, but the progressive coalition needed to get to a runoff 
in the last two elections: 
 
-- 1989   Concertacion (Aylwin)    55 percent in Round 1 
          Mil. government (Buchi)  29 percent 
          Independent (Errazuriz)  15 percent 
 
-- 1993   Concertacion (Frei)      57.98 percent in Round 1 
          UDI (Alessandri)         24.41 percent 
          Independent (J. Pinera)  6.18 percent 
 
-- 2000   Concertacion (Lagos)     51.31 percent in Round 2 
          Alianza (Lavin)          48.69 percent 
 
-- 2006   Concertacion (Bachelet)  53.5 percent in Round 2 
          Alianza (S. Pinera)      46.5 percent 
 
Opposition Needs a First-Round Win 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Concertacion analysts argue that the 48 to 49 percent that 
Alianza candidate Lavin received in 2000 is the threshold that 
Sebastian Pinera faces this year as the opposition candidate to the 
Concertacion.  In addition, pundits point out that Lavin's populist 
style allowed him to capture many low-income voters that would 
usually vote Concertacion.  Pinera, a wealthy businessman, is not 
necessarily going to draw those same voters, though he may be more 
able to draw centrist voters away from the Concertacion than Lavin 
did.  Either way, opinion makers argue that Pinera needs to win in 
the first round to become Chile's next president.  Even political 
analysts on the right have admitted that it is hard to make the 
numbers add up for a first-round Alianza win, barring a significant 
change to the electoral registry. 
 
Concertacion Needs the Left for a Second-Round Win 
------------------ ------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Frei, on the other hand, will need the support of 
independent minority candidates -- and most especially the Juntos 
Podemos (JP) coalition and the Communist Party -- to beat Pinera in 
a runoff.  The percentage of votes that go to third and fourth party 
candidates in the first-round election has fluctuated from over 10 
percent in 1993 (when now candidate Frei won by a landslide) to 4.5 
percent in 1999 to 5.4 percent in 2005.  Because the support of the 
JP is so crucial for a Concertacion win in the likely scenario of a 
runoff, the Concertacion is in discussions with the Communist Party 
(PC) regarding how to best end the "exclusion" of the PC from 
Congress, which is the effective result of Chile's binomial 
electoral system (septel to follow). 
 
Both Candidates Need the Center 
------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (U) Chile is known for its "three-thirds" tendency in voting: 
left, center and right have historically received roughly 33 percent 
of the votes when running separate candidates.  The runoff system 
breaks that historical pattern by making it impossible to win an 
initial election with 33 percent of the vote, forcing a runoff 
election between the two highest vote-getters.  However, in the 1993 
election, Frei received nearly 60 percent of the votes, while two 
conservative independents together received roughly 30 percent of 
the votes.  Frei won at that time with the highest majority ever 
recorded in Chilean elections.  His challenge this year -- he is 
polling around 46 percent -- is how to attract enough centrist 
voters to make it to a runoff.  Meanwhile, his opponent Pinera will 
be after those same voters. 
 
Apathy and Low Participation Are a Concern of All 
----------------------- ------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) Both main candidates will also be facing voter apathy and 
abstention, despite mandatory voting.  The percentage of registered 
voters that don't vote in presidential elections has increased 
steadily since the return to democracy: five percent in 1989; nine 
percent in 1993; 10 percent in 1999; and 12 percent in 2005.  In 
October's municipal elections, 16 percent of registered voters 
failed to cast ballots.  This year's election pits two main 
candidates that have been in politics for over 20 years:  Frei and 
Pinera ran against each other for a Senate seat in 1989 (Frei won). 
Voter abstention rates could go even higher this year. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) With eight months to go, the presidential competition 
between the government candidate Eduardo Frei and businessman 
Sebastian Pinera is intensifying.  While Frei has recently been 
proclaimed the Concertacion coalition's candidate, Sebastian Pinera 
has been in the race since he ran for president in the last general 
election four years ago.  Support for a field of smaller, 
independent candidates will be a deciding factor in whether the 
presidential election will end in a runoff.  End Comment. 
 
URBAN