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UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: FREI WINS CONCERTACION PRIMARY, AS EXPECTED 
 
REF: A) Santiago 304 
     B) Santiago 310 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Summary:  Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle on April 5 won the 
Concertacion regional primary in the Maule and O'Higgins regions 
with a difference of nearly 30 percentage points, meeting the 
conditions to cancel further regional primaries and become the 
Concertacion's candidate for presidential elections at the end of 
¶2009.  Low voter turnout and higher-than-expected votes for Frei's 
rival, Radical Senator Jose Antonio Gomez, converted the win into 
fodder for opposition claims that the Concertacion is fatigued and 
that a majority of Chileans will vote for Alianza candidate 
Sebastian Pinera in December.  End summary. 
 
A Frei Win With Low Voter Turnout 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Christian Democrat (DC) Senator Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle, 
backed by his party, the Socialist Party (PS), and the Party for 
Democracy (PPD), won the April 5 Concertacion regional O'Higgins and 
Maule primaries by nearly 30 points over his rival, Radical Social 
Democrat (PRSD) Senator Jose Antonio Gomez.  Because the former 
president won by more than 20 percentage points, further regional 
primaries were called off and, as expected, Frei was proclaimed 
Concertacion candidate for December's presidential elections.  Frei 
can now move on to campaign directly against Alianza candidate 
Sebastian Pinera. 
 
¶4.  (U) Lower-than-expected voter turnout and higher-than-expected 
returns for Gomez diminished the win in the view of analysts.  As 
compared with roughly 170,000 O'Higgins and Maule voters that 
participated in the 1999 Concertacion primaries, an estimated 60,000 
voters turned out to vote on April 5.  Frei's clear advantage, with 
three of four Concertacion parties backing him and a lack of public 
awareness of the election, may have kept voters at home (ref B). 
Traditional DC organization to get out the vote, particularly in the 
form of bus transportation for voters from rural areas, appears to 
have ensured the expected Frei win. 
 
¶5.  (U) Returns for upstart Gomez (ref A) were higher than expected, 
reaching over 35 percent of the votes counted as of April 5.  More 
people reportedly voted for Gomez in urban centers while Frei fared 
better in the rural areas.  Gomez clearly won votes from 
independents and members of Concertacion parties other than his own, 
considering that the PRSD received only seven percent of council 
member votes in the October 2008 municipal elections. 
 
An Urban-Rural Divide? 
---------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) PRSD Regional Secretary General Gabriel Diaz told EPOL 
Specialist on April 6 that, at least in the city of Rancagua, the 
primary felt like a regular election and many people went to vote. 
He noted that it was the smaller outlying communities that settled 
the contest, giving a higher number of their votes to Frei, while 
Gomez received an estimated 45 percent of the votes in the city of 
San Fernando and over 40 percent in Rancagua.  Diaz believes that 
the significant vote received by the PRSD candidate in the cities -- 
where he insists even DC militants must have voted for Gomez -- 
should be taken into account by the Frei campaign if Frei is to be 
successful against Sebastian Pinera in December. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Regional Vice-President of the PPD Cecilia Villalobos told 
EPOL Specialist on April 6 that rural areas were key for Frei 
because the Frei name generates so much loyalty in rural communities 
that benefitted from the agrarian reforms put into place by Frei's 
father, President Eduardo Frei Montalva (1964-1970).  However, her 
analysis of the results in urban districts was slightly different 
than her Radical counterpart.  While Villalobos admits that some 
PPD-PS-DC party militants must have voted for Gomez, she argues that 
the close results in urban centers like San Fernando are due to 
right-leaning independents turning out to vote for Gomez, in order 
to try and minimize Frei's margin of victory. 
 
Billing Pinera As The Change Candidate 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Directly after the Concertacion primary results were 
announced, former opposition presidential candidate Joaquin Lavin 
asserted that the high number of votes received by Gomez shows that 
Concertacion voters are ready for change and new faces, 
demonstrating that Sebastian Pinera is well-placed to win in 
December.  Lavin mentioned President Obama as an example of a change 
candidate, but backpedaled when pressed on the question of whether 
Pinera, presidential candidate in 2005 and former sentator, is the 
Chilean Obama.  Lavin insisted only that the Concertacion cannot 
offer anything new and that Pinera is the one who can bring change 
to Chile in this year's elections. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Concertacion leaders have billed the primary as an 
exercise in democracy, giving Frei a mandate as the single 
Concertacion presidential candidate.  They have used every 
opportunity to point out that their coalition candidate has been 
selected via the electoral process, not "within the four walls of a 
hotel conference room" -- a gibe at the opposition.  The regional 
primaries of April 5 were indeed an exercise for many, and most Frei 
supporters are relieved to be able to get on with the business of 
campaigning against Pinera.  However, it behooves the Frei campaign 
to find ways to win over the Gomez supporters.  Most Radicals will 
now fall in line within their coalition and behind Frei, but 
tensions and rivalries from the primary experience may trip up an 
already fractured Concertacion. 
SIMONS