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UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000310 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: CHILE:  CONCERTACION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FACE 
FIRST PRIMARIES APRIL 5 
 
REF: SANTIAGO 304 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  On April 5, the center-left Concertacion 
coalition will hold primaries in Chile's O'Higgins (VI) and 
Maule (VII) regions between former President and current 
Senator Eduardo Frei and upstart challenger Senator Jose 
Antonio Gomez.  The Concertacion has no set process for 
choosing presidential candidates, and this year opted for 
primaries to be held on a rolling regional basis, likely 
because subsequent primaries could be canceled if Frei 
trounces his rival as expected.  Voter turnout in this first 
regional primary is expected to be low.  Concertacion leaders 
fear--with good reason--that the Alianza coalition will use 
low rates of participation to bolster their claims that the 
Concertacion coalition is fatigued and the public's patience 
with twenty years of Concertacion rule is nearing an end. 
End Summary. 
 
Primary Election Primer 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Unlike in the United States, Chile's political 
parties have no set rules for how to choose their political 
candidates.  The conservative Alianza coalition has always 
relied on an informal process of polls and internal 
consultations, and has never held a primary.  The center-left 
Concertacion coalition held primaries twice before:  in 1993, 
when Eduardo Frei (Christian Democrat--DC) defeated Ricardo 
Lagos (Socialist Party--PS/Party for Democracy--PPD), and in 
1999, when Ricardo Lagos (PS/PPD) defeated Andres Zaldivar 
(DC).  In 2004, DC candidate Soledad Alvear withdrew before 
planned primaries when polls showed that Socialist candidate 
Michelle Bachelet had a substantial lead.  In each of the 
primaries, the rules were negotiated during the electoral 
year. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The political rules for choosing a candidate 
continued to evolve this year.  As the possibility of a 
primary swirled around the Concertacion camp, Frei's 
willingness to participate set him apart early on from 
Ricardo Lagos, another former president, who was perceived as 
arrogant for his reluctance to agree to a primary.  Once 
Lagos, OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza, and DC 
hopeful Soledad Alvear withdrew from the race, the withdrawal 
of Radical Social Democrat party (PRSD) candidate Jose 
Antonio Gomez and Frei's emergence as the Concertacion 
candidate seemed all but certain.  Only gradually did 
Concertacion leaders realize that Gomez had no plans to stand 
down, and that Frei would be pushed into a primary against 
him. 
 
¶4.  (U) In contrast to previous Concertacion primaries, which 
were between more evenly matched competitors, this year's 
primaries are scheduled for six dates in different 
regions--April 5 in central Chile, April 19 in northern 
Chile, April 26 in southern Chile, May 3 in Valparaiso, May 
10 in BioBio Region, and May 17 in the Santiago area. 
(Comment:  Although never explicitly stated, the obvious 
advantage of this staggered schedule is that later primaries 
could be canceled if Gomez withdraws during the process.  End 
Comment.)  Under continued pressure to withdraw from the 
race, Gomez first promised to withdraw if he did not win at 
least 10% in the first primary.  Later, he and Frei agreed 
that if either candidate beat the other by 20 points or more 
in the first primary, the trailing candidate would withdraw. 
 
Apathy, Frei's Lead, and Lack of Awareness Likely to Spell 
Low Voter Turnout 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The April 5 election is open to all registered 
voters in the O'Higgins (VI) and Maule (VII) regions who are 
Concertacion party members or independents.  Local leaders 
expect turnout to be 10% or less of this figure.  Gabriel 
Diaz, PRSD Regional Secretary told Poloff March 30 that a 
turnout of 40,000 voters would be "great." 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Political apathy, Frei's clear advantage, a lack of 
public awareness of the election, and competing public events 
are all likely to hurt voter turnout.  Many Chileans seem to 
feel stuck between two unappealing political choices:  the 
continuation of Concertacion's 20-year dominance of Chilean 
politics, or backing a political alliance which is still 
 
affiliated with Pinochet, at least in the eyes of those old 
enough to have lived through the regime.  Particularly as 
younger leaders, like the DC's "young princes," find that it 
is difficult to gain a voice within the political structure, 
voters are increasingly disenchanted with the shuffling of 
the same faces from one government post to another.  In 
addition, as a former President, Frei's victory over a 
little-known senator from a small party seems assured, and 
the lack of perceived urgency in the race may keep would-be 
Frei voters at home. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In conversations with Poloff March 30, local 
political leaders lamented the lack of public awareness of 
the election.  In previous primaries, the elections were held 
on the same day throughout the country, and so the process 
received widespread media attention.  Because this election 
will be held in just two provinces, both outside large 
cities, it has attracted little attention in the national 
press and many eligible voters are unaware of it. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Another obstacle is that the primary coincides with 
the biggest local event of the year in Rancagua, the capital 
of the O'Higgins region.  The national rodeo championships 
and accompanying huaso (Chilean cowboy) festival will compete 
with the elections for voters' attention and will draw 
thousands of potential voters away from their polling places. 
 
Preparing at the Last Minute 
---------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Concertacion leaders in the O'Higgins Region, just 
south of Santiago, described a scramble to make logistical 
arrangements for primaries on April 5.  A PPD commune leader 
told Poloff that the primaries were being organized "a la 
Chilena"--at the last minute and with almost no funding. 
Socialist Regional President Cristo Cucumides, who seemed 
taken aback by his PPD colleague's frankness, assured Poloff 
that the primaries would run smoothly and that the parties 
would back the winner--even if it were upstart Gomez 
(reftel).  On the PRSD side, Regional Secretary Gabriel Diaz 
noted that the party was having trouble finding enough 
volunteers to serve as poll workers. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Meanwhile, coordinating with the city's mayor, a 
member of the staunchly conservative Democratic Union Party 
(UDI), was somewhat challenging.  Schools often serve as 
polling places during the general election, but, according to 
Frei campaign organizers, Mayor Eduardo Soto was slow to 
grant permission for the Concertacion to use the city's 
schools for the primary.  Intendente Hector Huenchullan 
confirmed that, as in a general election, his office will 
provide security, although the Carabineros will be deployed 
for this primary rather than the military as in general 
elections. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Frei and the three largest Concertacion parties 
have the potential for minimal gains or big losses in this 
weekend's primaries.  Given the expectations of a resounding 
Frei victory, an overwhelming Frei win will be just a ho-hum 
formality on the road to the official Concertacion 
endorsement.  In contrast, if Gomez could manage the unlikely 
feat of garnering 40% or more of the votes cast, it will 
raise serious doubts about the Frei's ability to energize 
voters.  Meanwhile, voter turnout is likely to be quite low, 
and this will only play into the hands of the Alianza, who 
claim that the Concertacion coalition has run out of new 
ideas and energy and that voters are fed up with continuous 
Concertacion rule. 
SIMONS