VZCZCXYZ0005
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSG #0304/01 0912042
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 012042Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4721
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION PRIORITY 3893
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0803
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR 6140
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 6096
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 4325
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 2272
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000304 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SENV ECON CI
SUBJECT: CONCERTACION CHALLENGER GOMEZ MAKES A NAME FOR 
HIMSELF, THOUGH FREI STILL FAR AHEAD 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Through tireless old-fashioned 
campaigning and an extensive internet effort, upstart 
presidential contender Jose Antonio Gomez has emerged as a 
persistent progressive leader and irritant to Concertacion 
 
front runner Eduardo Frei.  Gomez, who is a senator and 
president of the Radical Social Democrat (PRSD) party, has 
little chance of besting Frei in this weekend's primary in 
the O'Higgins and Maule regions, but has succeeded in 
becoming a recognized political figure, positioning himself 
well for a possible run in 2014.  Meanwhile, the combination 
of expected low turnout and Gomez's aggressive campaign could 
give the dark horse a substantial minority of the vote, 
bolstering Alianza's efforts to portray Frei as the tired 
candidate of a tired coalition.  End Summary. 
 
Gomez Gains Concertacion Stalwart Slow to Engage 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Pro-Frei Concertacion leaders in Rancagua, the 
capital of the O'Higgins (VI) region, told Poloff March 30 
they were frustrated that their national party leadership had 
been slow to engage in the primary process.  During the past 
two months, PRSD Senator and former Justice Minister Jose 
Antonio Gomez tirelessly campaigned in the O'Higgins (VI) and 
Maule (VII) regions.  His efforts have included substantial 
press work, an Obama-style internet marketing blitz with an 
online TV station and text messaging, and many personal 
appearances in the region.  Meanwhile, national leaders of 
the other Concertacion parties--the Christian Democrats (DC), 
the Party for Democracy (PPD), and the Socialists 
(PS)--expected that Gomez would succumb to pressure to bow 
out of the race, and so did not take primary campaigning 
seriously. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Mario Quijada, DC regional president, complained 
that he and his fellow local Concertacion leaders had been 
working very hard in February campaigning for Frei, while 
national level leaders were on vacation.  (Comment:  The 
Chilean press reported that Frei himself spent February 
largely on vacation, while both Gomez and Alianza candidate 
Sebastian Pinera spent their summer "vacations" on the 
campaign trail.  End Comment.)  Others echoed this 
frustration, with the Intendente Hector Huenchullan (DC) 
saying in a separate conversation that he regarded January, 
February, and March as "lost time" that the DC, PPD, and PS 
had ceded to the PRSD. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Gomez took advantage of that inattention to make 
substantial inroads in the region.  Although still trailing 
far behind Frei, Gomez has gained impressive ground in the 
last few months.  In December, he was considered such a long 
shot that--despite being a declared candidate, sitting 
senator, and president of his party--he was not even included 
in polls.  By early March, in a poll measuring voting 
intentions during the Concertacion primary, he had reached 
17.2% support vs. Frei's 55%.  After his intense campaign 
work in the sixth and seventh regions in the past few weeks, 
his share of the vote could be even higher. 
 
Frei and Gomez Face Off in March 30 Debate 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (U) On March 30, Eduardo Frei and Jose Antonio Gomez 
engaged in their first (and likely only) public debate, 
broadcast in the O'Higgins and Maule regions.  Both 
candidates expressed admiration for the current 
administration and voiced support for strengthening the role 
of the state in response to the global financial crisis.  A 
telephone poll revealed that 49% of those interviewed judged 
Frei to have emerged victorious, outperforming Gomez in the 
discussion of employment, education, the economy, and 
regional issues.  Gomez was better-received only on 
value-laden issues like abortion.  In a surprising move, Frei 
announced his support for legalizing "therapeutic abortion", 
a move some see as a political maneuver designed to appease 
progressive voters.  (Note:  "Therapeutic abortion" refers to 
procedures performed when the life or health of the mother or 
fetus are in danger.  All abortions are currently illegal in 
Chile.  End Note.) 
 
¶6.  (U) On the subject of the environment, Frei demanded the 
diversification of energy sources, while Gomez was careful to 
point out that diversification, while necessary, must not be 
 
undertaken at the expense of Chile's fragile ecosystems. 
Both candidates also tackled the role of unregulated big 
business in the current economic downturn.  Gomez took a 
particularly strong position, calling for the harsh 
punishment of executives and the revocation of business 
licenses.  Frei and Gomez agreed on the necessity of 
expanding Chile's commitment to higher education, with Frei 
making specific mention of the need for world class 
technology education centers. 
 
What Comes Next 
--------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Concertacion leaders in the O'Higgins region and 
across the country are eager for Gomez--whom they see as an 
irritant to the all-but-annointed Concertacion candidate 
Frei--to officially be out of the running.  Cecilia 
Villalobos, the PPD Regional Vice President, told Poloff that 
the distraction of Gomez and two Concertacion candidates is 
hurting Frei in the polls.  For Villalobos, Gomez's 
candidacy, as well as the renegade candidacy of Socialist 
parliamentarian Marco Enriquez-Ominami and the November 2008 
decision of Alejandro Navarro to leave the Socialists to form 
his own leftist party, highlights fractures in the 
Concertacion coalition. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Both Frei and Gomez supporters are optimistic that 
their candidates would win a general election against Frei. 
Villalobos asserted that "global conditions" favor the 
Concertacion, as Chileans support the progressive response to 
the financial crisis, including a bigger role for the state. 
For his part, PRSD Regional Secretary Gabriel Diaz is 
confident that if Gomez can win the primary, he'll win the 
general election, highlighting that surveys show that very 
few voters reject him, while both Pinera and Frei have 
relatively high rejection rates. 
 
Gomez Catapulting Himself onto the Political Stage 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Analysts are still guessing at the reasons behind 
Gomez's seemingly hopeless but unrelenting campaign.  While 
at first it seemed likely that his persistence was a 
bargaining chip to be traded for more PRSD spots on the 
parliamentary ballot in December's elections, now his 
motivations seem more personal.  Gomez, who came from way 
behind to defeat Frei's sister, Carmen Frei, in a race for a 
northern Chile Senate seat in 2005, seems to be positioning 
himself as a presidential contender in 2014.  If so, he has 
been spectacularly successful in increasing his name 
recognition and emerging as a political player.  As his 
O'Higgins region party secretary told us, "He has already 
won." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) While it is very unlikely that Gomez would best 
Frei in the April 5 primary, he may well be more successful 
than many Concertacionistas expect.  Gomez's impressive 
internet and ground campaign may bring in a critical mass of 
PRSD members as well as independents and supporters from 
other Concertacion parties.  And in an election where total 
turn out is likely to be less than 10% (reftel), even a 
relatively small number of Gomez votes could have a 
significant impact. 
SIMONS