VZCZCXRO7505
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHSA #0817/01 1131543
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231543Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8234
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1341
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 6773
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0887
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 9116
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000817 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/S WILLS, JAMES AND MARBURG 
FOR DRL WILLET AND GILBRIDE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM ASEC SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA VOTES: SITUATION REPORT #3 
 
PRETORIA 00000817  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U)  Summary:  National and provincial election results 
began trickling in on April 23.  Early numbers show that the 
African National Congress (ANC) will again receive a huge 
mandate from the electorate, but there are signs of strength 
from the Democratic Alliance (DA) in Western Cape.  The 
Congress of the People (COPE) also posted some positive 
numbers, but so far they have not been as high as the party 
anticipated.  Despite complaints from DA leader Helen Zille 
and ANC spokesperson Jesse Duarte that some polling stations 
ran out of ballot papers and ballot boxes, most election 
observers (and parties) say the Independent Electoral 
Commission (IEC) ran a relatively smooth day of voting.  The 
IEC's final tally from this election may not be completed 
until late on April 24 or early on April 25.  End Summary. 
 
--------------- 
Results Come In 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  The IEC's Results Centre in Pretoria began tabulating 
results for the national and provincial election on April 23. 
 Results posted at 08:00 in South Africa, with only 20 
percent of the total number of votes counted, show the ANC 
with 63 percent of the vote, the DA with 19 percent and COPE 
with 7 percent.  A COPE spokesperson at the Results Centre 
told reporters "it was never COPE's idea that it would become 
the official opposition."  Smaller opposition parties lagged 
behind.  The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) stood at 2.7 
percent, the Independent Democrats at 1.7 percent, and the 
Freedom Front Plus at 1.2 percent.  Zille told a crowd at the 
Results Centre that she is pleased with her party's 
performance.  The DA was leading the closely watched race in 
the Western Cape with 53 percent of the vote against the 
ANC's 26.8 percent.  (Note:  Some polls say the DA could win 
more than 45 percent of the vote in Western Cape, putting the 
party in position to take over governing the province.  End 
Note.) 
 
------------------------------- 
Some Complaints, Some Posturing 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U)  DA leader Zille complained vocally about reports that 
some voting stations ran out of ballot boxes and ballot 
papers.  She told reporters, "South Africans should not 
become used to the idea that they cannot vote because of the 
IEC's organization problems."  Duarte said late on April 22 
that the ANC saw it as a "crisis" that the IEC was reported 
to have run out of ballot boxes and ballot papers in some 
areas.  Although many of the U.S. Mission's election 
observers did hear complaints about long lines on the day of 
the vote and heard from poll workers about box shortages and 
ballot papers running out, the IEC responded to many of the 
problems quickly and professionally.  (Note:  There was some 
speculation among political analysts and pundits that parties 
complained about how the IEC handled some issues in an effort 
to cast blame should they perform poorly at the polls.  End 
Note.) 
 
¶4. (U)  However, by early on April 23, the ANC was saying 
that "South Africans should not beat themselves up over what 
was a largely successful election."  ANC Secretary General 
Gwede Mantashe told a small crowd at the Results Centre that 
there was "only one problem" he knew of during the vote 
yesterday.  Zille noted that "apathetic voters" were 
responsible for lower than expected numbers.  The ANC later 
Qresponsible for lower than expected numbers.  The ANC later 
joined the chorus of election observers from the African 
Union and the Southern African Development Community in 
saying that South Africa sets an exemplary standard for 
elections. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5. (U)  The Embassy's election observation activities 
crisscrossed all nine provinces to provide us with first hand 
impressions of how the IEC administered polling day 
activities and how South Africa's came out in the millions to 
cast their votes.  No electoral system is perfect, so it was 
only to be expected that glitches and unanticipated problems 
 
PRETORIA 00000817  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
would occur.  Based on our in-house effort alone, we do not 
believe that any set of unanticipated problems in the 
administration of this massive exercise had a fundamentally 
negative impact on the overall trend and results of this 
election.  The preliminary election results, though far from 
final, already reveal the broad outlines of the emerging 
final picture.  The ANC will win big but could still fall 
short of 66 percent.  The DA will remain the official 
opposition in Parliament as well as prevail with the most 
votes in the Western Cape.  COPE's performance may disappoint 
its members, but their supportive votes may be causally 
associated with the ANC's loss of its super-majority due to 
alienated life-long members of the ANC shifting their votes 
to COPE.  Zuma's Zulu heritage and his campaign towards the 
Zulu nation will strip significant support away from the IFP, 
improving the ANC's performance in Kwa-Zulu Natal.  Election 
counting will continue throughout the day, with tabulation 
occurring perhaps faster than initially expected.  Post will 
have officers at the IEC's Results Centre throughout the 
afternoon into the evening and will update the results as 
they become available. 
LA LIME