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R 271426Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1319
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000228 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS EUN EZ PGOV PREL XG
SUBJECT: CZECH EU PRESIDENCY VIEWS ON THE BALKANS 
 
REF: PRAGUE 24 
 
PRAGUE 00000228  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  Czech MFA South and South East Europe 
Director Tomas Szunyog reviewed the Czech EU Presidency's 
progress in the Western Balkans.  According to Szunyog lack 
of EU consensus has been impeding progress.  The Czechs 
expect few significant advances during the remainder of the 
Czech EU Presidency, but anticipate some small steps forward 
may still be made.  End Summary. 
 
---------- 
ROADBLOCKS FOR THE WESTERN BALKANS 
---------- 
 
¶2. (U) On April 15, emboffs met with Czech MFA South and 
South East Europe Director Tomas Szunyog to discuss EU 
enlargement in the Western Balkans.  According to Szunyog, 
there are four major challenges impeding EU efforts to 
advance enlargement in the Western Balkans:  1) The Lisbon 
Treaty has still not been ratified and EU member states are 
reluctant to move forward on enlargement without Lisbon in 
place.  2) In light of the economic and financial crisis 
members are reluctant to proceed with enlargement.  3) Other 
key EU priorities (i.e. Middle East, Afghanistan) have moved 
the Balkans, which are stable in comparison to these hot 
spots, down on the agenda.  4) European Parliament elections 
are scheduled for June and action on most issues will be 
suspended until after the elections.  He added that progress 
may also have to wait until after the German elections 
scheduled for September.  EUR Assistant Secretary Fried heard 
a similar assessment from DFM Tomas Pojar during his visit to 
Prague in January 2009 (ref A).  At that time, Pojar 
complained of EU inertia due to enlargement fatigue. 
 
---------- 
SMALL STEPS: PROGRESS ON MEMBERSHIP FOR MONTENEGRO AND ALBANIA 
---------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Czech Presidency still hopes for some progress 
with regard to the EU membership applications of Montenegro 
and Albania.  Montenegro's EU membership application should 
be passed to the European Commission (for the traditional 
review) at the next EU ministerial-level meeting, which 
happens to be the EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council in 
Luxembourg on April 23rd.  This is a long awaited, but 
welcome development for the Czechs, as Montenegro's 
application was not passed to the Commission earlier because 
of objections by the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, France, and 
Belgium.  Albanian Prime Minister Sali Berisha is scheduled 
to submit an EU membership application on behalf of Albania 
on April 28th.  (Note: This application comes exactly two 
months prior to Albanian elections. End Note.) 
 
---------- 
VISA LIBERALIZATION FOR SOME 
---------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Though Germany and the Nordic countries remain 
skeptical, according to Szunyog there is a general 
understanding among EU members that visa liberalization 
should be granted for at least some of the Western Balkans 
countries soon.  The second technical report is due out in 
early May on the readiness of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, 
Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania for visa liberalization. 
The report will most likely highlight Macedonia, Montenegro 
and Serbia as the most technically prepared, in that order. 
Bosnia and Albania are likely to have a less favorable 
report.  In Szunyog's opinion, the decision to grant visa 
liberalization should be a technical one, but he fully 
anticipates politics will also be a factor in the EU 
deliberations.  There is a concern among some EU members, for 
example, about the appearance of allowing Serbia to get in, 
but not Albania.  Though the EU does not mean for visa 
liberalization to be seen as a conciliation prize, it is 
often seen politically as a way to make up for a lack of 
movement in the EU membership process.  Most likely, only 
some of the countries will be granted visa liberalization, 
but even here there is a concern that this would lead to 
increased "passport shopping" in which citizens of one Balkan 
country apply for passports in neighboring countries. 
 
---------- 
CROATIA: PROGRESS STALLED 
---------- 
 
PRAGUE 00000228  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) The Czech Presidency set a goal of closing ten 
accession chapters for Croatia during its EU Presidency. 
However, none have been closed thus far, due mostly to 
ongoing disputes with Slovenia.  The Croatia Enlargement 
Conference, postponed to April 24th, has now been postponed 
again, due to the current stalemate.  With these 
postponements, it becomes less likely that Croatia will 
finish its roadmap goal of closing all chapters by the end of 
¶2009. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The main problem with Croatia moving forward with 
its chapters remains the border dispute with Slovenia. 
Szunyog bemoaned the fact that they have not made any notable 
progress since September 2008.  Both sides have accepted the 
idea to have a group of experts mediate, but the terms of 
reference and composition of the group remains unresolved. 
Croatia has municipal elections scheduled in May, so it is 
unlikely that immediate progress will come on EU enlargement 
before then.  EU Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn met with 
both sides on April 22 and unfortunately it appears these 
discussion did not go well.  As for other unresolved 
Slovenia-Croatia issues (nuclear waste and Ljubliana Bank 
nationalization), Szunyog believes these will be relatively 
easy to resolve once the border dispute is solved.  However, 
the Ljubliana Bank nationalization case could become more 
complicated, as Belgium has interest in the matter. 
Additionally, the Dutch are concerned over the missing 
documents needed in the ICTY case of Ante Gotovina.  Croatia 
has maintained it cannot find these documents or that they do 
not exist. 
 
---------- 
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA:  VISA FREE TRAVEL NOT COMING SOON, 
FMS URGE ACCELERATED REFORM 
---------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Even though Bosnia has floated the idea of a visa 
free region for the Western Balkans, this idea will not 
likely be accepted.  In regards to technical preparedness, 
Bosnia is far behind its neighbors.  Szunyog also pointed out 
that Bosnia is not as stable politically as some of the other 
countries seeking visa liberalization.  Note: Czech, Swedish 
and French FMs Karel Schwarzenberg, Carl Bildt, and Bernard 
Kuchner recently visited Sarajevo where they urged Bosnia to 
speed up reform efforts. End Note. 
 
---------- 
KOSOVO:  HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL AFTER ICJ 
---------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) As Kosovo is not yet recognized by all EU member 
states it is impossible to start negotiating visa free 
liberalization with them at this time.  However, Kosovo 
continues to work on passport, border and visa reforms.  At 
the recent Gymnich, EU foreign ministers brainstormed about 
how to enlarge and fully staff their EU civilian missions. 
The main challenge of getting enough troops for EULEX remains 
merging and coordinating the many different national-based 
systems of all member states.  Kosovo's current holding 
pattern boils down to many member countries waiting for the 
ICJ decision before acting and/or commenting further about 
Kosovo. 
 
---------- 
SERBIA:  DUTCH STILL WAITING FOR FULL COMPLIANCE, SHOWING 
SMALL SIGNS OF FLEXIBILITY 
---------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Dutch continue to block everything regarding 
Serbia, demanding full ICTY compliance as a first step. 
According to Szunyog, recently Spain asked the Dutch to be 
more flexible on Serbia, and the Dutch replied, "If Spain 
recognized Kosovo, we'll consider it".  There is hope, 
however, that the Dutch may be willing to be more flexible to 
the idea of visa liberalization or the interim trade 
agreement.  A new report on Serbia is due out June 4th.  It 
will most likely be positive, but the extradition of Ratko 
Mladic will remain the key problem. 
 
---------- 
MONTENEGRO:  WAITING FOR A NEW COMMISSION 
---------- 
 
 
PRAGUE 00000228  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) With Montenegro's EU application expected to 
formally pass to the Commission April 23, things look good 
for Montenegro on the surface.  In order to push the 
application through, an agreement was made that no work would 
be done on this until after there is a new Commission in the 
second half of 2010.  Realistically, Szunyog fears not much 
may happen until the Hungarian EU Presidency in the spring of 
¶2011. 
 
---------- 
MACEDONIA:  GREECE CAN'T VETO VISA LIBERALIZATION 
---------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Fortunately for Macedonia, visa liberalization is 
decided by EU members according to a majority vote, and no 
one country has veto rights.  In addition, Macedonia is 
leading the Western Balkan countries in technical 
preparedness, which makes it the most likely to be ready for 
visa liberalization by the start of 2010.  Unfortunately for 
Macedonia, there is no sign of a compromise on the name issue 
with Greece, which has been blocking negotiation dates from 
being scheduled and accession chapters from opening.  The 
Czech EU Presidency has encouraged Macedonia to compromise 
with Greece soon, while they have the domestic political 
capital to do so, and  three years to prove to their 
constituency that the compromise paid off.  There is an EU 
progress report due out in October, but if the Greeks are not 
satisfied, Szunyog opined, nothing will happen.  Szunyog 
believes there is only one way for Macedonia to move forward 
and beyond the name dispute, and that is to become Northern 
Macedonia.  He worries otherwise that in five years Macedonia 
will not exist, and will be divided between Kosovo and 
Bulgaria.  He points toward the evidence that total voter 
turn out in the recent second round elections was only 42 
percent, with ethnic Albanians hardly participating. 
 
---------- 
ALBANIA:  DOCUMENTATION "REALLY A MESS" 
---------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Szunyog was not optimistic with regard to Albania's 
chances to qualify for visa liberalization this year. 
Szunyog commented that Albania was "really a mess," with an 
estimated 700,000 to 900,000 completely undocumented people. 
These undocumented people, as well as people dually 
documented under similar names, complicate elections and 
voter lists.  Albanian authorities are just beginning to 
issue proper IDs and passports to the general public.  There 
are currently 3.1 million people in the new database, which 
includes finger prints, and when completed, will represent a 
huge improvement. 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) COMMENT:  The Western Balkans continue to have a 
friend in the Czech Republic, but the Czechs have not been 
able to accomplish as much as they had hoped given the 
current challenges within the Western Balkan countries and 
within the EU.  The next three presidencies (Sweden, Spain, 
and Belgium) unfortunately, are not expected to push as 
enthusiastically as the Czechs on EU enlargement and thus 
there could well be an 18 month slow down of progress until 
the Hungarian EU Presidency in the spring of 2011. 
Thompson-Jones