VZCZCXRO9352
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0084/01 0931814
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 031814Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1246
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 1334

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000084 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WRAP-UP 
 
REF: A: PODGORICA 75; B: PODGORICA 71 
 
PODGORICA 00000084  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  On April 2, Montenegro's State Election 
Commission (SEC) rejected appeals to hold repeat votes at 
several polling stations.  While parties may still take their 
cases to the Constitutional Court, the SEC decision likely 
finalizes the results of the election.  The vote, which the OSCE 
assessed as meeting "almost all" international standards, 
affirmed Montenegro's multi-ethnic character and Euro-Atlantic 
course.  However, the continued and now almost total domination 
of the ruling coalition over all branches of government could 
weaken democratic checks and balances.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
SEC Rejects Appeals~ 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) On April 2, the State Election Commission turned down 
appeals for repeat votes at the handful of polling stations 
which had experienced what the SEC termed "minor irregularities" 
on election day.  Parties/coalitions still have three days to 
appeal to the Constitutional Court, but the SEC decision likely 
finalizes the election results. 
 
 
 
~Likely Dooming NS-DSS Chances 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) The only significant consequence of the SEC decision is 
that the pro-Serb People's Party - Democratic Serbian Party 
(NS-DSS) coalition, which parallel vote counts put squarely at 
the three percent parliamentary threshold, will fall about 450 
votes short of entering Parliament.  The NS-DSS, which had 
pinned its hopes on repeat votes at two polling stations in 
heavily Serb Herceg Novi municipality, vowed to appeal to the 
Constitutional Court. 
 
 
 
"Final" Tallies 
 
--------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) Barring the unlikely event of a Court decision in favor 
of the NS-DSS, the composition of the new 81-member Parliament 
will be as follows: 
 
 
 
--"European Montenegro" coalition:         48 seats 
 
--Socialist People's Party (SNP):          16 
 
--New Serbian Democracy (NOVA):              8 
 
--Movement for Change (PzP):                 5 
 
--Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA):      1 
 
--FORCA:                                    1 
 
--Democratic Alliance/Albanian Alternative: 1 
 
--Albanian Coalition "Perspective":        1 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) The last four parties/coalitions are Albanian parties. 
While five MPs are elected from specially designated 
Albanian-majority polling stations, the ruling coalition won the 
fifth Albanian seat, resulting in the loss of one Albanian seat 
from the current Parliament. 
 
 
 
OSCE:  Election Day Kudos, Some Campaign Concerns 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) The OSCE/ODIHR mission, together with the OSCE PA and 
PACE, assessed the election as having "met almost all 
 
PODGORICA 00000084  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
international commitments and standards."  In particular, the 
observers gave Montenegro's election administration and vote 
itself high marks.  However, the OSCE/ODIHR, noting that the 
campaign had witnessed the blurring of state and party 
structures, allegations of electoral fraud, and TV news bias, 
also said that the campaign "again underscored the need for 
further democratic development."  The OSCE/ODIHR's final report 
is expected out in mid-May. 
 
 
 
The Positive... 
 
--------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) As touched on in Ref A, the election produced several 
positive developments.  These included: 
 
 
 
--Affirmation of Independence:  The campaign was noteworthy for 
the absence of emotional challenges to Montenegrin statehood. 
Less than three years after the highly contentious independence 
referendum, this question appears to have been settled. 
 
 
 
--Democratic Progress:  The calm nature of the campaign and the 
solid marks for election day proceedings represent another step 
forward in Montenegro's democratic maturation, despite some 
concerns about the conduct of the campaign. 
 
 
 
--A Vote for Stability:  Montenegrins gave the GoM a vote of 
confidence as Montenegro enters troubled economic waters, with 
the global financial storm expected to pound the country more 
severely in the coming months. 
 
 
 
--Continued Euro-Atlantic Integration:  The GoM has a solid 
parliamentary majority to support accelerated integration with 
the EU and NATO.  Additionally, all parliamentary parties 
strongly support EU membership.  Although support for NATO lags 
significantly behind, many of the loudest anti-NATO voices in 
the current Parliament were not reelected. 
 
 
 
--Multi-Ethnicity Over Nationalism:  Multi-ethnic, civic parties 
and coalitions did well, while parties and coalitions based 
around nationalists principles lagged (with the exception of the 
small Albanian parties).  The multi-ethnic ruling coalition and 
the SNP - while still primarily Serb, now an avowedly civic 
party - made strong gains.  The decline of the PzP was due to 
internal schisms, not to the party's civic orientation. 
 
 
 
--Decline of Serb Radicals:  Related to above point, the overall 
number of representatives of pro-Serb parties fell from 15 to 
eight, and the Serb Radical Party and its allies fell out of 
Parliament altogether.  In addition, the new Parliament's only 
Serb party, NOVA, has promised to pursue a more moderate line. 
The issue of Kosovo independence did not feature prominently in 
the pre-election campaign. 
 
 
 
--More Constructive Opposition:  The trend towards moderation, 
along with the poor showing of the virulently anti-Djukanovic 
PzP, bodes well for possible cooperation between the ruling 
coalition and opposition on some key issues, particularly 
European integration.  The ruling coalition still needs the 
opposition since certain decisions and legislation require a 
two-thirds majority (54 out of 81 MPs) vote. 
 
 
 
... And Not So Positive 
 
----------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) However, on the negative side of the election ledger: 
 
 
 
 
PODGORICA 00000084  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
--Weak Opposition, Weaker Democracy?:  The coalition victory 
means that the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the senior 
coalition partner, will have been in power continuously for 
almost a quarter of a century by the time the next parliamentary 
elections are held in 2013.  While the DPS kept the country out 
of the Yugoslav conflicts, forged a multi-ethnic, independent 
state, and is aggressively integrating Montenegro into the 
Euro-Atlantic community, the dominance of one political party 
for so long raises concerns about the transparency and openness 
of government. 
 
 
 
-- The DPS-led Parliament is unlikely to check the 
DPS-controlled Government, and the fragmented and weak 
opposition will be hard-pressed to break the current chummy 
relationship between government officials and leading 
businesses.  In the short term at least, pressure to strengthen 
the rule of law, an Achilles heel for Montenegro, will need to 
come from within the coalition and from a hitherto placid 
population, as well as from the international community. 
MOORE