VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHZP #0347/01 1192151
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 292151Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3333
INFO RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000347 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PM PREL
SUBJECT: PANAMA: POLITICAL COMMENTATOR PROVIDES INSIGHT ON 
POST-ELECTION LANDSCAPE 
 
Classified By: Classified by: Ambassador Barbara J. Stephenson for reas 
ons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C)  Ricardo Martinelli's Alliance for Change movement 
will perform well in next weekend's elections, and the PRD 
will be weakened but will regain strength and prepare for 
2014, political commentator Alfredo Castillero told POLOFFS 
during lunch on April 23.  Castillero noted that a Martinelli 
Administration, nonetheless, will have some surprises, 
probably referring to unexpected Cabinet appointments from 
various political parties.  He also provided commentary on 
the individuals surrounding Martinelli's campaign and noted 
that Martinelli will have to realize that he cannot run the 
presidency like a business "because the public sector simply 
does not work that way."  Castillero's assessment reiterates 
themes that Post has heard from other contacts in the run-up 
to the May 3 elections. His comments regarding a rocky 
transition period track with Post's impressions.  The 
transition will be chaotic, and the Martinelli team is solely 
focused on winning the election on May 3, and has not begun 
thinking seriously about governing the country. 
 
 
---------------------------------------- 
PRD: Weakened, But Still Important Force 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C)  "The ruling PRD will be weakened in the elections 
next weekend, but the party's strong history and large base 
of support will allow it to regain strength," political 
analyst Alfredo Castillero told political officers during 
lunch on April 23.  The party's core values such as 
discipline, loyalty, and organization have helped its 
cohesiveness and allowed it to retain its large membership. 
(Note: The Electoral Tribunal statistics from December 2008 
show PRD membership at over 660,000, making it by far 
Panama's largest party.)  He explained that the dynamics of 
the PRD's presidential bid changed considerably after 
President Martin Torrijos decreed the security reforms in 
August 2008 and Balbina Herrera defeated Juan Carlos Navarro 
to win the party's presidential primary in September 2008. 
"Balbina's checkered past has hurt her campaign because 
Panamanians associate her with former Panamanian dictator 
Manuel Noriega," Castillero commented.  Infighting within the 
PRD has weakened the normally disciplined party, and centrist 
members of the party -- such as Juan Carlos Navarro -- had 
difficulty in accepting her as the party's candidate.  "Juan 
Carlos Navarro may emerge even stronger within the party as a 
result of an opposition presidential win," he explained. 
(Note: La Estrella daily published an article on April 23 
which outlined four supposed factions in the PRD, which the 
daily claimed were led by Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladarez, 
Martin Torrijos, Balbina Herrera, and Juan Carlos Navarro.) 
 
¶3. (C) Castillero predicted that the PRD would win 
approximately 30 National Assembly seats, which he 
characterized as a large opposition bloc, though short of a 
majority.  (Note: The total number of National Assembly 
Deputies will decrease from 78 to 71 with this election, and 
36 Deputies will constitute a majority).  Although he would 
not predict the number of National Assembly Deputies that the 
Panamenista Party would win, he noted that the Panamenista 
Party will be essential to a probable opposition majority in 
the National Assembly.  Castillero noted that it has been 
difficult for the Panamenista Party to assume second billing 
to a Democratic Change candidate for the national ticket, but 
the party is looking forward.  "Mireya Moscoso has already 
touted herself as the candidate to assume the party 
presidency in 2011," Castillero said. 
 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Martinelli's Decisionmaking Style, Advisors 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) "Although Martinelli has a reputation of not listening 
to anyone before he makes decisions, he actually does listen 
to those around him, but then retreats to make his own 
decisions.  A Martinelli Administration, nonetheless, will 
have some surprises," Castillero commented, probably 
referring to unexpected Cabinet appointments from various 
political parties.  Key individuals who have surrounded 
 
Martinelli include lead advisor Jimmy Papadimitriu, Frank de 
Lima, Roxana Mendez, and Alma Cortez, according to 
Castillero.  Castillero insinuated that Frank de Lima was a 
bit too rigid and young to be Minister of Economy and 
Finance, a post for which de Lima had been rumored to be a 
candidate.  Roxana Mendez was a respected proponent of social 
welfare, according to Castillero.  (Note: Roxana Mendez is 
the running mate of Alliance for Change mayoral candidate for 
Panama City, Bosco Vallarino.)  Castillero speculated that if 
Vallarino wins the mayoral race and Mendez were offered a 
Cabinet position -- most likely the Ministry of Social 
Development -- she would resign from her mayoral duties to 
serve in the Cabinet.  Castillero described Alma Cortez as 
one of Martinelli's main lawyers and the legal face of his 
campaign.  He said that in a Martinelli administration, 
Cortez would probably be offered a legal appointment but 
expressed misgivings about that prospect.  "Cortez has made a 
lot of enemies over the years because she has relentlessly 
pushed legal cases to lengthy appeals processes in order to 
reach settlements," Castillero said. 
 
¶5. (C) "Martinelli and his running mate Juan Carlos Varela 
have a good personal relationship, and they had been talking 
to each other long before they made official their opposition 
alliance," Castillero commented.  He said that they had 
agreed in January 2008 that the opposition candidate who was 
leading in the polls by early 2009 would run as the 
opposition presidential candidate while the other would 
assume the VP role.  (Note: This agreement is often referred 
to as the Pese Pact (Pacto Pese).)  Nonetheless, Castillero 
acknowledged that Martinelli did not help the personal 
relationship between the two when he publicly declared that 
Varela would head the public transportation reform effort 
because it sets Varela up to fail on a complicated project 
and probably will prevent him from assuming a key Cabinet 
position, such as Minister of Foreign Affairs. 
 
¶6. (C) "Martinelli will need to realize that he cannot run 
the presidency like a business.  The public sector simply 
does not work that way," Castillero noted.  He commented that 
he has heard from friends who are part of Martinelli's team 
that Martinelli has run his campaign in a rigid manner.  For 
example, Castillero said his friend was afraid to arrive late 
for work or make any personal calls during business hours. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Political Background of Democratic Change Party 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶7. (C) "Not all Panamanians who support Martinelli are in 
favor of his liberal economic policies, but his promise of 
repairing the country's problems through change drives his 
popularity," Castillero said.  He explained that the 
Democratic Change (CD) party was not yet institutionalized 
but rather was centered around Martinelli's personality, his 
social promises, and dissatisfaction with the ruling PRD. 
Politics in Panama are based on patronage rather than a 
particular ideology, and Martinelli seems to be winning that 
race, according to Castillero. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Panama City's Mayoral Race: "A Sad State of Affairs" 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶8. (C) Castillero lamented the "sad state of affairs" in the 
contest for Panama City's mayoral seat; he had no doubt 
(though no absolute proof) that PRD candidate Roberto "Bobby" 
Velasquez received money from alleged Colombian 
money-launderer David Murcia but noted that this would not be 
a shock to most Panamanians and it would probably not greatly 
affect the outcome of the race.  He conceded that the 
Alliance for Change candidate Bosco Vallarino was a terrible 
candidate and noted that Vallarino's vigil pleading for 
permission to run for mayor despite questions about his 
U.S.-Panamanian dual citizenship was "shameless."  (Note: 
After controversy surrounding the possible disqualification 
of Vallarino's candidacy due to his dual citizenship, the 
Electoral Tribunal in mid-April declared Vallarino's mayoral 
eligibility.)  Castillero said that because of Panama's 
centralized government system, it would strengthen the 
opposition if the Alliance for Change won both the presidency 
and the Panama City mayoral race.  Nonetheless, the mayor of 
Panama City does not have much power "other than collecting 
the garbage," Castillero noted. 
 
 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (C) Alfredo Castillero, whose last GOP position was 
serving as MFA Director General for External Political 
Affairs in the Moscoso Administration, professes not to be 
registered with any political party, but his sympathies are 
generally understood to lie with the opposition in general 
and the Panamenista Party in particular.  Castillero's 
assessment reiterates themes that Post has heard from other 
contacts -- such as the impending difficult transition period 
and the trouble that the Panamenista Party has had in 
assuming second billing to the CD on the election ballot. 
Nonetheless, Castillero stopped short of calling this 
election "revolutionary" and assessed that the PRD will 
weather the current political storm, regroup, and prepare for 
¶2014.  His comments regarding a rocky transition period track 
with Post's impressions and do not assuage our fears that the 
transition will be chaotic.  It is abundantly clear that the 
Martinelli team is solely focused on the May 3 election date 
and has not prepared to begin governing the country. 
STEPHENSON