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C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000338 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: FINAL POLL RESULTS: MARTINELLI HOLDING 
STRONG 
 
Classified By: Amb. Barbara J. Stephenson for reason 1.4(b) 
 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U)  With Panama's May 3 elections just nine days away, 
Alliance for Change opposition presidential candidate Ricardo 
Martinelli holds a twelve to sixteen point lead over 
Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Balbina 
Herrera, according to the final presidential polling data 
from Dichter and Neira, Unimer and Ipsos.  Despite 
indications early this month that Herrera might have been 
closing the gap with Martinelli's lead, the closing numbers 
confirm a pattern that has held for several weeks: Martinelli 
continues to enjoy a double digit lead and roughly 50 percent 
of voter preference. 
 
--------------------------- 
Herrera Not Closing the Gap 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  Since the last week in February, Martinelli has 
maintained between 49 and 52 percent of voter preference in 
Dichter and Neira's presidential poll, and Herrera has held 
steady between 34 and 37 percent.  These numbers were within 
the poll's roughly 3 point margin of error, indicating that 
voters had not moved significantly in either direction for 
the last six weeks.  In its final survey, Dichter and Neira 
forced voters to choose between candidates in a voting 
simulation and eliminated spoiled and blank ballots.  The 
result was a last minute surge for both candidates, with 
Martinelli up four points, topping off with an impressive 55 
percent of voter preference and Herrera up five points, 
closing the polls at 41 percent.  According to Dichter and 
Neira, Martinelli continues to firmly hold a roughly 15 point 
lead. 
 
¶3.  (U)  In a poll question from IPSOS earlier this month 
involving a mock vote, Herrera initially gained two points 
from early March, moving from 33 to 35 percent of voter 
preference, while Martinelli lost four points, slipping from 
50 to 46 percent.  This lowered Martinelli's lead to only 
nine points where he had previously enjoyed a 17 point 
advantage.  Martinelli closed the gap in the latest Ipsos 
poll, however, bringing his numbers back up to 51 percent in 
the mock vote question while Herrera held at 35 percent. When 
asked in the same poll who they would vote for if the 
elections were held this Sunday, 49 percent of respondents 
indicated Martinelli, while only 33 percent selected Herrera. 
 Either way the question was presented, voters gave 
Martinelli a 16 point lead over Herrera in Ipsos's final poll 
and Herrera experienced no last minute rally. 
 
¶4.  (U)  Unimer was somewhat of an outlier, continuing in its 
final poll to show Herrera closing the gap somewhat on 
Martinelli's lead.  According to the Unimer poll, Herrera 
trailed behind Martinelli by seventeen points in early March. 
The latest numbers cut Martinelli's lead to 11.9 points, 
indicating that Herrera has edged increasingly upward while 
Martinelli has held firm.  According to Unimer, Martinelli 
now holds 50.2 percent of voter preference and Herrera 38.3 
percent. 
 
----------------- 
Public Perception 
----------------- 
 
¶5.  (U)  According to the Unimer poll, 40.9 percent of 
respondents feel that the PRD is the better organized party, 
with just 33.6 percent finding CD to be more organized. 
Organizational skills aside, an overwhelming 57.3 percent of 
respondents think that Martinelli will be the next president 
of Panama; only 22.9 percent think that Herrera will win the 
election.  Indeed, Herrera is the most rejected candidate in 
the Unimer poll, with 40.9 percent of respondents saying they 
will not vote for her and only 27.2 percent of respondents 
rejecting Martinelli out of hand.  A similar question asked 
in the Ipsos poll yielded yet more discouraging news for 
Herrera, with 41 percent of respondents indicating they would 
never vote for her and only 31 percent of voters indicating 
that they would never vote for Martinelli. 
 
¶6.  (U)  Panama's La Estrella newspaper reported on April 23 
that both political analysts and polling firms tended to 
 
agree that the numbers have been firm since February and were 
not now likely to change significantly.  According to the 
pundits, any last minute arguments of a technical draw 
between the two candidates would be unrealistic. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Martinelli is likely to be the first president 
elected in Panama since the 1989 restoration of democracy to 
secure more than 50 percent support at the ballot box. 
Furthermore, many analysts and political leaders believe 
Martinelli's four party coalition will take control of the 
National Assembly as well as make sufficient in-roads at the 
local level in mayoral and city council races.  Indeed, for 
the first time in this campaign, Martinelli's candidate for 
mayor of Panama City, Bosco Vallarino, is leading his PRD 
opponent, Bobby Valasquez, Jr., by four points.  A Martinelli 
victory will have a seismic effect on Panamanian politics. 
The strength of the Martinelli seismic event will be measured 
on the Panamanian political Richter scale in terms of the 
numbers of National Assembly deputies, mayors and city 
councilmen that Martinelli's alliance puts into office. 
 
-------------- 
Technical Data 
-------------- 
 
¶8. (U)  Dichter and Neira conducted 1,200 interviews of men 
and women over the age of 18 who are residents of Panama. 
The poll was conducted nationally, including the indigenous 
people's autonomous regions (comarcas) of the Ngobe Bugle and 
Madungandi but excluding the remote and difficult to reach 
Darien Province.  Interviews were conducted face-to-face in 
individuals' homes from Saturday, April 18 to Sunday, April 
¶19.  Sampling was multi-staged.  The first stage distributed 
the total sample according to population by province as well 
as rural and urban precincts, and in the second stage blocks 
were randomly selected and homes were first randomly and then 
systematically selected.  The margin of error for the poll 
was assessed at  /- 3.5 percent in Panama City and  /- 2.9 
percent in other areas with an overall confidence level of 95 
percent.  Unimer conducted 1,600 face to face interviews of 
residents of Panama between the ages of 18 and 75 at all 
economic levels on Wednesday, April 15 to Friday, April 17. 
The poll was conducted nationally in urban and semiurban 
zones except in the remote and difficult to reach Darien 
Province and indigenous people's autonomous regions 
(comarcas). The margin of error was 2.5 percent with a 
confidence level of 95 percent.  Ipsos interviewed 3,014 
residents of Panama over the age of 18 on Thursday, April 16 
to Saturday, April 19 in their homes.  Interviews took place 
in rural and urban areas except in the remote and difficult 
to reach Darien Province and indigenous people's autonomous 
regions (comarcas). The margin of error was  /- 2 percent in 
some districts and  /- 4 percent in others, with a confidence 
level of 95 percent. 
STEPHENSON