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OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
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O 272002Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9365
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV AF CA
SUBJECT: REGIONAL VIEWS ON CANADA'S AFGHAN MISSION 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  During a monthly Digital Video Conference, 
Mission Canada reporting officers agreed on strong Canadian support 
for Canada's troops, but no appetite to extend the 2011 end-date for 
Canada's combat mission or to engage in any substantive discussion 
of the role Canada might play in the country after 2011.  No 
noticeable differences have appeared between the Conservative and 
Liberal parties on that issue, but Afghanistan conceivably could 
become an issue (albeit not the likely dominant one) in the next 
federal election.  End summary 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  PolMinCouns on April 27 chaired the monthly DVC for 
Mission Canada reporting officers, focusing on regional perspectives 
of Canada's Afghan mission and what Canadians believe Canada should 
do in Afghanistan after the 2011 pull-out that the March 2008 House 
of Commons' bilateral motion had mandated.  From the Ottawa 
perspective, he noted very little interest in Parliament or the 
bureaucracy in looking past 2011, even regarding humanitarian and 
developmental assistance, much less to re-think a possible continued 
combat role if the U.S. and/or NATO made such a request.  He shared 
comments from WHA/CAN describing an April 23 meeting between members 
of the Commons' Special Committee on Afghanistan and State 
officials, at which the latter stressed that the U.S. would welcome 
Canada to remain in a combat role if feasible after 2011 -- 
apparently the first time a USG official had specifically made such 
a request even informally.  PolMinCouns speculated about the 
possibility that Afghanistan might re-emerge as a political issue in 
the next federal election campaign, while recognizing that the 
economy would likely be the primary topic.  He opined that new 
Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff might choose this issue as 
one way to differentiate his party from the ruling Conservatives. 
 
HALIFAX 
------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Consul General cited the significant Canadian Forces 
presence in Atlantic Canada and noted strong public support for 
Canada's military personnel.  He nonetheless explained that mounting 
casualties and Afghanistan's recent passage of sharia law curbing 
women's rights had diminished popular support for the mission.  For 
the military community, the focus remained primarily on the security 
aspect of the mission.  Canadian military contacts welcomed the 
American troop "surge" in Afghanistan, but the Consul General noted 
little public reaction to the deployment and its effect on Canadian 
Forces.  The economy remains the region's top-of-the-mind issue. 
 
QUEBEC CITY 
----------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Despite the fact that support nationally for Canada's 
combat mission remains weakest in Quebec, the Consulate General's 
local military contacts remained focused on Canada's combat mission 
and morale appeared good.  In contrast, discussion with local 
academics indicated a general consensus that Canada had "done its 
share" in Afghanistan and that it was "more than justified" in 
ending its combat mission in 2011.  Support for the mission overall 
continued to decline in public opinion polls.  Local media appeared 
to be monitoring the U.S. draw-down from Iraq and deployment to 
Afghanistan closely. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Consul General drew attention to a striking difference 
in attitude respecting Canada's future role in Afghanistan between 
those who had been there and were aware of progress on the ground 
(including the positive reporting by media personnel who had 
travelled there on USG sponsored programs) and the negativity of 
those who had not, indicating an opportunity for the USG and the 
Canadian government to utilize resources to shape attitudes. 
QCanadian government to utilize resources to shape attitudes. 
 
MONTREAL 
-------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Montreal noted increasingly sparse media reporting with 
respect to Afghanistan, with the exception of a "blip" in reaction 
to the recent Afghanistan sharia law, which had renewed questioning 
over Canada's objectives in Afghanistan.  However, local media had 
offered balanced and respectful coverage during the recent funeral 
of Quebecer Karine Blais, Canada's second female casualty in 
Afghanistan.  Reaction to the recent visit to Montreal of NATO's 
Brigadier Thomas was positive and non-controversial. 
 
TORONTO 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Ontario's main focus remained squarely on the economy and 
the crisis in the auto industry, but there has been some media 
discussion of Canada's future role in providing humanitarian aid and 
training post-2011, without any noticeable interest in considering 
the extension of the combat mission.  In an April national Canadian 
Press-Harris-Decima poll, only 42 pct of Ontarians supported 
Canada's Afghan mission, while 24 pct were opposed and another 27 
pct were "strongly" opposed.  Among those who supported the mission, 
62 pct did so even after reports of Afghanistan's new sharia law. 
 
OTTAWA 00000317  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Toronto-area MPs, including Liberal foreign affairs critic 
Bob Rae, had not engaged the community regarding the role Canada 
might play in Afghanistan after 2011.  Similarly, Liberal leader 
Michael Ignatieff did not raise the issue at a recent fundraiser in 
the city. 
 
WINNIPEG 
-------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Afghanistan was not a "top-of-the mind" issue in Manitoba, 
with apparently no public interest in revisiting the 2011 end-date 
for the combat mission.  The American "surge" into Afghanistan had 
engendered some positive media comment and optimism, but had not 
altered overall public weariness with the conflict. 
 
CALGARY 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Alberta residents scored the highest support (55 pct) for 
Canada's participation in the Afghanistan mission of any Canadian 
province in an April Canadian Press-Harris-Decima poll, followed by 
Manitoba-Saskatchewan (polled as a single block) at 52 pct.  (In 
comparison, 40 pct of Canadians nationally support the mission.) 
Nonetheless, support for the mission had fallen in the region. 
Afghanistan's introduction of sharia law had not been helpful.  The 
"Calgary Sun" published an online poll in early April suggesting 
that local support would fall by approximately 25 pct if the law 
remained on the books. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Public support "for the troops" is at an historic high, 
registering "around 90-95 pct" in the region, according to the 
Canadian National Defence public affairs office in Calgary. 
 
¶12. (SBU) One prominent academic at the Centre for Military and 
Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary has pointed to an 
interesting shift in media terminology with respect to media 
reporting of deaths due to the Afghan mission, referring to 
"Canadian soldiers" rather than "Canadian peacekeepers," suggesting 
marked a significant change in Canadian military identity and a 
positive shift in the public mind with respect to thinking about the 
activities of the Canadian Forces. 
 
VANCOUVER 
--------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) There is a growing awareness in Vancouver of Afghanistan's 
post-2011 humanitarian needs, largely due to the personal 
connections of the present Governor of Kandahar, who formerly taught 
at the University of British Columbia and whose family remains in 
the city.  Vancouver also has a small, but well-connected Afghan 
diaspora (centered in UBC) that is promoting discussion of 
democracy-building, education, and aid for the country.  The 
Consulate General will co-host a reception in late May, in 
collaboration with local military battalions, for Canadian soldiers 
who have served in Afghanistan to focus greater attention on 
Canada's contribution. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) The virtual disappearance since March 2008 of Afghanistan 
as a Canadian political issue remains striking and consistent 
nationwide.  The unwillingness of Canadians to engage in substantive 
discussion of Canada's role in Afghanistan after 2011 would make it 
tough slogging for any chance of course to the current end-date of 
the combat mission in 2011.  Neither the Conservatives nor the 
Liberals probably have much appetite for reviving this issue during 
the next federal election campaign -- although more specific and 
public requests from the U.S. and/or NATO could change this dynamic. 
 
BREESE