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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 OTTAWA 000311 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: TOUJOURS EN PLACE: THE BLOC QUEBECOIS 
 
REF: A. 08 OTTAWA 1300 
     ¶B. OTTAWA 231 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary.  The Bloc Quebecois, a federal political 
party exclusively devoted to promoting Quebec's interests in 
Parliament, emphasizes that Quebec's values -- including the 
primacy of French, the "crucial" role of culture, and 
Quebec's immigration policy -- differ from the rest of 
Canada.  With 49 seats in the House of Commons, the Bloc 
remains well entrenched, regularly winning a majority of 
Quebec's 75 parliamentary seats.  Although the Bloc's 
founders intended it to dissolve following a referendum on 
sovereignty, Quebec voters have continued to support it and 
will likely continue to do so as long as the Quebecois see 
they are getting some federal benefits from its Parliamentary 
role.  Although there is no clear successor to party leader 
Gilles Duceppe, House Leader MP Pierre Paquette and 
Environment Critic MP Bernard Bigras appear the most likely 
candidates.  End summary. 
 
PROMOTING QUEBEC'S INTERESTS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  The Bloc Quebecois ("Bloc") is a political party 
exclusively devoted to defending Quebec's interests in 
federal politics.  According to the Bloc's founders and 
Statement of Principles, the party will have fulfilled its 
purpose once Quebec achieves sovereignty through a popular 
vote called for by the Quebec National Assembly; Quebec would 
then negotiate a partnership agreement with Canada.  Despite 
the defeat of the 1995 sovereignty referendum, the Quebecois 
have continued to vote for the Bloc, making clear that they 
want a Bloc presence to promote their interests in 
Parliament.  According to Bloc MP and Francophonie Critic 
Monique Guay (Rivere-du-Nord), who has served in Parliament 
since 1993 and easily won re-election in October 2008 by over 
20,000 votes, the Bloc will continue to operate as long as it 
enjoys popular support in Quebec.  While other federal 
parties seek power by appealing to a national electorate, the 
Bloc only fights for the issues that matter most to 
Quebecois, including respect for the French language, 
protection of cultural diversity, support for Quebec-based 
industries, and provincial budget autonomy, according to Bloc 
MP and Citizenship and Immigration Critic Thierry St-Cyr 
(Jeanne-Le-Ber).  The Bloc is unique in Canadian federal 
politics by only organizing and campaigning in one province. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Polling suggests that the Bloc's current strength is 
concentrated in rural and heavily francophone areas outside 
the West Island of Montreal and the Quebec City region. 
While some Bloc MPs have noted that most of their supporters 
are sovereignists, pollsters also have noted that the party 
draws support from federalists eager to advance Quebec's 
interests in Ottawa.  One Quebec business leader told 
EconMinCouns that, although sovereignty would be disastrous 
for Quebec economically, he votes Bloc because the party 
stands up for Quebec's rights and budgetary allocations. 
Whether a Quebecois is federalist or sovereignist, the Bloc's 
platform states that he or she should always put the 
province's considerations first.  Liberal Party MP and 
Francophonie Critic Raymonde Folco (Laval-Les Iles) commented 
privately that much of the Bloc's support is more a vote 
against other federal parties, rather than an endorsement of 
the Bloc. 
 
HISTORICAL ROOTS 
---------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) A group of Progressive Conservative and Liberal MPs 
Q4.  (SBU) A group of Progressive Conservative and Liberal MPs 
led by then-Prime Minister Mulroney's Environment Minister 
Lucien Bouchard formed the Bloc Quebecois in 1991, following 
the defeat of the Meech Lake Accord.  In the 1993 federal 
election, the Bloc won 54 of Quebec's 75 seats (or 49.3 
percent of the province's popular vote), becoming the 
Official Opposition in the House of Commons.  Many analysts 
expected the Bloc to fade following the 1995 referendum 
defeat (when 50.58 pct voted against sovereignty) and Lucien 
Bouchard quit the Bloc to become the leader of the provincial 
Parti Quebecois (PQ) and Premier of Quebec.  However, in the 
1997 federal election, the Bloc won 44 seats (or 37.9 pct of 
the provincial popular vote), and in 2000 won 38 seats (39.9 
pct of the popular vote).  In 2004, the Bloc equaled its 2003 
record by winning 54 seats (48.9 pct of the popular vote), in 
large part due to the federal sponsorship scandal, which 
devastated the Liberal Party in Quebec.  In 2006, the Bloc 
won 51 seats (42.1 pct of the popular vote), and in October 
 
OTTAWA 00000311  002 OF 004 
 
 
2008 won 49 seats (38.1 pct of the popular vote), one more 
than it held at the dissolution of Parliament in September. 
Prime Minister Office (PMO) Senior Quebec Advisor Dimitri 
Soudas commented that the Bloc's share of the vote has 
declined since 1993, but election data shows that the Bloc's 
share of the popular vote has ebbed and flowed and has only 
been in marginal decline since 2004, with almost no impact on 
its number of seats. 
 
GILLES DUCEPPE AND BLOC POPULARITY 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Gilles Duceppe is currently the longest serving 
federal political party leader in Canada.  He was the first 
Bloc member elected to Parliament, as an independent under a 
sovereignist banner in 1990.  Bloc leaders have included 
Lucien Bouchard (1990-1996), Duceppe (as interim leader 
January-February 1996), Michel Gauthier (1996-1997), and 
again Duceppe (since March 1997).  In May 2007, Duceppe 
briefly entered the PQ leadership race to replace Andre 
Boisclair, but withdrew after only one day of campaigning. 
Many commentators had expected that the October 2008 election 
would be Duceppe's last campaign, but he has shown no signs 
of stepping down yet.  He is a highly experienced campaigner, 
and his next federal election campaign will be his sixth. 
The PMO's Soudas predicted privately that Bloc House Leader 
MP Pierre Paquette (Joliette) and Environment Critic MP 
Bernard Bigras (Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie) are Duceppe's most 
likely successors, with Paquette the more frequently cited by 
analysts. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  According to a recent Canadian Press Harris-Decima 
poll, Duceppe retains a 50 pct favorable rating in Quebec, 
with 28 pct viewing him unfavorably.  Independent analyst 
Bruce Campbell has noted that these "strong numbers for the 
Bloc likely make it almost impossible" for either the 
Conservatives or Liberals to capture a majority government at 
present.  Bloc MP and Francophonie Critic Guay noted that the 
Bloc has continued to poll at around 40-43 pct support in the 
province since the October 2008 election. 
 
SOVEREIGNTY AND RELATIONS WITH THE PARTI QUEBECOIS 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  The Bloc explicitly admits that only the Quebec 
National Assembly and the Quebecois have the legitimacy to 
determine Quebec's political future.  The Bloc enjoys close 
relations with the PQ, the sovereignist party founded in 1968 
that led the campaign for sovereignty in the failed 1980 and 
1995 referenda, the latter with Bloc support.  The parties 
share the stated goal of an independent Quebec, and their 
candidates often attend each other's events.  Many Bloc and 
PQ members even hold membership in both parties.  According 
to Bloc MP Carole Lavallee (Saint Bruno-Saint Hubert), the 
Bloc and PQ share many of the same campaign worker 
volunteers.  They are, however, separate parties with 
distinct organizational structures. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  In January, Duceppe and PQ leader Pauline Marois 
held a joint Bloc-PQ caucus meeting, claiming that the 
sovereignty movement remained in strong shape and that Quebec 
would be much better off facing the recession alone than as 
part of Canada.  According to MP Guay, joint Bloc-PQ working 
groups meet monthly to discuss a range of issues, including 
culture, francophonie, and international affairs.  Noting 
that the PQ is the Official Opposition in the Quebec National 
Assembly, the Bloc's 2009 Action Plan stated that the Bloc-PQ 
QAssembly, the Bloc's 2009 Action Plan stated that the Bloc-PQ 
"sovereignist coalition" should mobilize "to make Quebec into 
a country." 
 
¶9.  (C)  Privy Council Office (PCO) Quebec Policy Advisor 
Eric Ferguson noted to poloff that PQ leader Marois was well 
positioned to win the next provincial election, as Liberal 
Premier Jean Charest has held power since 2003 -- a long 
period by Quebec standards -- so voters may want a change 
next time.  Ferguson added that Marois could interpret a 
victory as a mandate to pursue sovereignty, but cautioned 
that no more than about 30 pct of Quebecois support outright 
independence.  Ferguson added that a referendum remained 
unlikely in the medium term, unless the federal government 
pushed a strong anti-Quebec agenda, which was unlikely. 
Behind the scenes, Bloc MPs admit that they are more 
interested in greater autonomy and rights than in breaking up 
Canada, at least for now.  MP Guay commented that the PQ was 
founded only 41 years ago and the Bloc just 18 years ago, 
while other countries have taken several hundred years to 
gain independence.  Conservative MP Steven Blaney 
(Levis-Bellechasse, a Quebec City district) insisted to 
 
OTTAWA 00000311  003 OF 004 
 
 
poloff that the Bloc was no longer a sovereignist party. 
 
DON'T COUNT ON FRANCE 
--------------------- 
 
¶10.  (U)  According to some commentators, French President 
Sarkozy's comments to the Quebec National Assembly in October 
2008 praising Canadian unity and rejecting division -- and 
again in February at a ceremony honoring Quebec Premier Jean 
Charest with the Legion of Honor medal in Paris -- appeared 
to bury France's long-standing policy of non-interference and 
non-indifference to the issue Quebec sovereignty.  Many 
analysts noted that President Charles de Gaulle's July 1967 
"Vive le Quebec libre" speech in Montreal, which electrified 
the sovereignty movement, was only a distant memory.  In a 
joint letter, Duceppe and Marois publicly responded by 
criticizing Sarkozy's "disrespect" for the sovereignist cause. 
 
QUEBEC VALUES AND WEDGE ISSUES 
------------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  According to Liberal MP and Francophonie Critic 
Raymonde Folco (Lavel-Les Iles), the Bloc had developed a 
pattern of expertly seizing on timely or wedge issues to 
boost its popularity during elections.  During the October 
2008 federal election, Duceppe turned juvenile justice 
proposals and cuts to culture funding into attacks on the 
ruling Conservative Party (ref a), and took credit for 
preventing Prime Minister Harper from winning a national 
majority.  The Bloc argued that strengthening the Young 
Offenders Act would result in children being imprisoned 
alongside hardened criminals.  Commenting on Quebec values, 
one Bloc MP opined that to "spend a week in Quebec and a week 
in Edmonton, and you'll see it's two completely different 
places."  The Bloc's 2008 electoral platform criticized the 
Conservative Party's "laissez-faire economic policy, 
repressive justice policy and foreign policy built on use of 
force" as being "diametrically opposed" to Quebec's values. 
The platform also alleged that the Liberals and New 
Democratic Party (NDP) would concentrate greater social, 
economic, and cultural power in Ottawa at Quebec's expense. 
According to Bloc MPs, Prime Minister Harper's "demonization" 
of "separatists" during the short-lived Bloc-backed 
Liberal-New Democratic Party coalition in December (ref b) 
showed a "lack of respect" to the Quebecois. 
 
LANGUAGE, CULTURE, AND IMMIGRATION 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (U)  Noting that the Quebecois are a "francophone 
island" representing only two percent of North America's 
population, the Bloc still seeks ever greater recognition of 
Quebec's distinct nationhood.  The Bloc has proposed a bill 
extending the Charter of the French Language (also known as 
Quebec provincial law 101, defining French as Quebec's 
official language) to companies working under federal 
jurisdiction in Quebec.  The Bloc has also proposed that 
Quebec province -- rather than the federal government -- 
regulate telecommunications and radio in the province, and 
called for greater use of French also within the Canadian 
Forces.  The Bloc has sought an amendment allowing Quebec to 
opt out of the Canadian Multiculturalism Act to preserve 
Quebec's integration model -- requiring learning French -- in 
contrast to Canadian multiculturalism, which is a "mosaic" 
approach rather than a "melting pot." 
 
BUDGET AUTONOMY 
--------------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  The Bloc often complains that federal government 
budgets are unfair to Quebec, and has accused both the 
Conservatives and the Liberals of abandoning Quebec's 
QConservatives and the Liberals of abandoning Quebec's 
forestry and manufacturing sectors, and instead giving 
preferential treatment to Ontario and the West.  According to 
Bloc MPs, Quebec sends its tax revenues to Ottawa "without 
receiving much back," although most commentators disagree 
with this assessment.  The Bloc has criticized the 
government's decision to slow the growth in equalization 
payments to Quebec, but the PCO's Ferguson said that Quebec 
remains the largest equalization recipient (ref b).  Various 
Quebec governments and the Bloc have consistently criticized 
federal spending in areas that fall under Quebec's 
jurisdiction.  More generally, the Bloc calls for an end to 
the federal government's power to spend and run fiscal 
deficits. 
 
BUILDING INTERNATIONAL EXPERTISE 
-------------------------------- 
 
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¶14.  (U)  Bloc MPs define Quebec's values also in terms of 
foreign policy, demanding enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol 
and the return of Guantanamo detainee Omar Khadr.  The Bloc 
vigorously opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  The Bloc views 
its parliamentarians as Quebec's spokespeople, and believes 
that they play an important role in defending Quebec's 
interests both in Ottawa and abroad.  The Bloc has stressed 
that its parliamentary work on foreign policy, monetary 
policy, defense, international trade, and industrial policy 
helped to develop Quebec's skills and competencies for 
sovereignty.  Bloc MPs regularly travel abroad on 
parliamentary business, such as in mid-March, when a 
delegation visited Congress to explain the Bloc's 
sovereignist agenda and to discuss free trade and the border. 
 The Bloc portrays itself as playing a constructive role in 
Ottawa.  It has alleged that the federal government only 
began to take action to prevent an EU ban on the seal hunt 
after the Bloc raised the issue in Parliament. 
 
YOUTH OUTREACH 
-------------- 
 
¶15.  (C)  Bloc MP Thierry St. Cyr (Jeanne-Le Ber), an 
engineer who was first elected to Parliament in 2006 as a 28 
year-old, explained that the Bloc was using "new media" 
technologies such as the Internet and social networking sites 
to reach out to youth.  The Bloc's 2009 Youth Forum Action 
Plan noted the importance of academic institution student 
councils for recruiting new activists.  In addition to 
focusing on such areas as sovereignty, the environment, 
culture, and employment, the Bloc Youth Forum platform called 
for Quebec to seek International Ice Hockey Federation 
recognition for a Quebec national team using as precedents 
the gold-winning Quebec under-17 team in the 2006 World Ice 
Hockey Challenge, and the Scotland/Wales/England soccer 
teams.  Bloc MP Guay, however, commented that it would be 
easier to energize youth during a referendum. 
 
COMMENT -- HERE TO STAY 
----------------------- 
 
¶16.  (C)  The Bloc remains well entrenched and likely to 
continue to play an active, if highly Quebec-specific, role 
in federal politics, while also maintaining a spoiler role 
against future Liberal or Conservative majority governments. 
There does not appear to be any prospect of the party 
breaking up or giving up.  The Quebecois retain a reputation 
as highly strategic voters, electing a federalist provincial 
government under Premier Charest and a largely sovereignist 
slate of MPs to Ottawa.  Bloc MPs also appear to enjoy their 
parliamentary perks and privileges, and are keen to serve 
long enough to claim federal pensions and benefits.  While 
Quebec separation does not appear on the cards anytime soon, 
Quebec nationalism may make some progress among immigrant 
communities from Africa, Asia, and Latin America, whose 
children -- as a result of "Bill 101" -- have grown up in 
Quebec's French-speaking school system.  Several current Bloc 
MPs are visible minorities, which would have been hard to 
envisage eighteen years ago.  The Bloc will face some renewed 
challenges to its future representation in Parliament as the 
Liberal Party continues intensive outreach under new and 
charismatic -- as well as bilingual -- leader Michael 
Ignatieff, but these will not be particularly more serious 
than earlier challenges to its political presence in federal 
politics. 
 
Visit Canada,s North American partnership community at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
Qhttp://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/na p/ 
 
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