VZCZCXRO6860
PP RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0260/01 0911833
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 011833Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9288
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEADRO/HQ ICE DRO WASHINGTON DC
RUEAORC/US CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION WASHINGTON DC
RHMCSUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RUEPICA/USCIS WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000260 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREF SMIG ELAB CA
SUBJECT: CANADA MAINTAINING 2009 IMMIGRATION TARGETS 
 
REF: A. 08 OTTAWA 645 
     ¶B. TORONTO 40 
     ¶C. 08 OTTAWA 1324 
     ¶D. OTTAWA 231 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  In light of the current economic 
conditions, Canada is reviewing its 2009 immigration targets 
but may end up maintaining Canada's 2009 target of about a 
quarter million new permanent residents.  In 2008, Canada 
accepted a record high of 247,202 permanent residents. 
Canada is more likely to curb its temporary foreign worker 
numbers, which are based on job offers and market demand. 
Wooing "New Canadians" appears a strategic part of the ruling 
Conservative Party's efforts to pick up additional seats in 
communities with large immigrant populations around Toronto 
and Vancouver.  End summary. 
 
2009 IMMIGRATION TARGETS UNDER REVIEW 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Minister for Citizenship, Immigration, and 
Multiculturalism Jason Kenney recently announced that Canada 
plans to accept 245,000 - 260,000 new permanent residents in 
¶2009.  Kenney told a parliamentary committee that Canada is 
one of the few developed countries not already decreasing its 
immigration in the face of domestic and global economic 
recessions.  In late March, Kenney separately met with 
provincial officials to review economic data to determine if 
the 2009 immigration targets need to go down to reflect 
worsening labor market conditions.  Speaking to the press, 
Minister Kenney stated that "we don't want people coming to 
Canada and facing unemployment.  We need to be sensitive to 
the changing labor market, and if we need to make changes, we 
will."  Although the results of the review are not yet 
public, a Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) official 
indicated privately to poloff that CIC nonetheless expects 
the 2009 immigration targets to remain untouched.  In making 
the case to maintain current levels, Minister Kenney advised 
Parliament that Canada was looking beyond the current 
economic situation to the "mid to long-term," as Canada would 
"need newcomers to help fuel the jobs of the future" once 
conditions improve. 
 
¶3.  (U)  Minister Kenney also said publicly that he was 
"particularly concerned by short-sighted, divisive rhetoric 
that pits immigrants against Canadians in our economy." 
Separately, Liberal Senator Pierrette Ringuette (New 
Brunswick) had characterized job losses across Canada as 
"statistically huge" and called for the government to 
introduce a "Canada First" jobs policy that would "halt the 
foreign worker program so that Canadians will have the first 
opportunity to obtain these jobs and to work in Canada." 
 
RECORD HIGH IMMIGRATION IN 2008 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U)  Canada's 2009 immigration targets are similar to 
2008, when Canada accepted a record high of 247,202 permanent 
residents.  According to CIC, 2008 intake of permanent 
residents was greater than in 2007 (ref a) and 70,000 more 
than in 1998.  Canada also accepted 193,061 temporary foreign 
workers and 79,459 foreign students in 2008, a combined total 
of 519,722 newcomers for the year. 
 
¶5.  (U)  While CIC data shows that most immigrants settle in 
the urban centers of Toronto, Vancouver, or Montreal, a 
mid-March report by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities 
(FCM) -- based on CIC and Statistics Bureau data -- detected 
a shift in immigrant settlement patterns toward suburban 
Qa shift in immigrant settlement patterns toward suburban 
areas and smaller communities.  (Note: The FCM is the 
national voice of municipal governments, with more than 1,775 
members representing 90% of Canadians.  End note.)  The 2006 
Census showed that the greatest shifts occurred from urban 
Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver into their nearby suburbs, 
most notably York, Peel, Laval, and Surrey.  The City of 
Toronto's share of immigrants in the Toronto Census 
Metropolitan Area declined from 80 pct in 2002 to 63 pct by 
2006; the City of Montreal's share over the same period fell 
from 79 pct to 67 pct; and, the City of Vancouver's share 
dropped from 56 pct to 35 pct.  The report also cited 
Statistics Bureau data showing that 56 pct of new immigrants 
had children under the age of twelve, significantly higher 
than for non-immigrants.  FCM President Jean Perrault (mayor 
 
OTTAWA 00000260  002 OF 002 
 
 
of Sherbrooke, Quebec) commented to media recently that the 
government should give mayors a seat at the immigration 
planning table and provide more funding to smaller 
communities to cope with rising demands for child care 
services, education, health resources, jobs, and housing for 
newcomers. 
 
CURBS TO TEMPORARY FOREIGN WORKER PROGRAM LIKELY 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6.  (U)  Canadian provinces select temporary foreign workers 
based on job offers and market demand.  In February, Minister 
Kenney publicly stated that he anticipates a decrease in the 
intake of temporary workers due to declining economic growth 
and rising unemployment.  Opposition New Democratic Party 
immigration critic Olivia Chow has also argued that, if 
immigration cuts need to be made, the temporary worker 
category should be the first group to trim.  According to 
Chow, many temporary foreign workers "are exploited and drive 
down wages of ordinary working families." 
 
¶7.  (U)  The Immigration Minister has the authority to make 
changes to the immigration selection system without providing 
advance warning.  Canadian immigration information websites 
have already begun to encourage prospective immigrants to 
file immigration applications now, noting that it may become 
more difficult to qualify if 2009 immigration numbers decline. 
 
CONSERVATIVE OUTREACH TO "NEW CANADIANS" 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Minister Kenney leads the government's outreach to 
immigrant communities and minority groups.  Almost 20 pct of 
the Canadian population is now foreign-born.  According to 
the Statistics Bureau, the Toronto and Vancouver metropolitan 
areas rank higher than any other metropolitan area in North 
America or Australia in terms of the immigrant population as 
a percentage of the total population.  Minister Kenney 
regularly appears at events nationwide sponsored by "New 
Canadian" groups, as well as at embassies representing those 
countries of origin.  The CIC website even features a link 
for "inviting Minister Kenney to your community event."  (In 
tribute to his ethnic networking, pundits have labeled Kenney 
"Curry in a Hurry.)  In the October 2008 federal election, 
the Conservatives picked up numerous seats in the greater 
Toronto and Vancouver areas at the expense of the Liberal 
Party (ref c), including districts with substantial immigrant 
populations, according to political analysts. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Comment:  The Conservatives would like to maintain 
their appeal to "New Canadians" and consolidate gains in 
those communities in the 2008 federal election.  Given the 
Conservative Party's difficulties in Quebec (ref d), 
immigrant communities have taken on even greater political 
significance.  "New Canadians" could be pivotal in vote-rich 
Ontario and British Columbia, where the Conservatives must 
pick up additional seats if they hope to remain in power or 
possibly even win a parliamentary majority in the next 
election. 
 
Visit Canada,s North American partnership community at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
 
BREESE