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O 301421Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6393
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7947
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000864 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: ROUND THREE OF INDIAN 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 817 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: On April 30, Indian voters cast their 
ballots in several states seen as key to the 
Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) bid to win 
power from the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 
government.  This is the third of five phases of 
parliamentary elections; polling took place in 107 
constituencies across nine states and two federal 
territories.  Voting in the third phase was relatively 
uneventful with the exception of small skirmishes in Bihar 
and West Bengal, and a separatist boycott in Jammu and 
Kashmir.  Final voting turnout statistics were not available 
COB, but it appears that polling in the third phase began 
slowly due in part to unusually hot weather in many parts of 
the country.  Votes will be counted and results announced on 
May 16, when all five phases of polling have been completed 
and 714 million voters have had a chance to cast their ballot 
to elect a new Lok Sabha (lower house) of parliament and a 
new government.  End Summary. 
 
Third of Five Phases 
--- 
 
¶2.  (U) Voters in 107 constituencies spread across nine 
states and two union territories headed to polls in the third 
round of the five-phased election.  A total of 1,567 
candidates, including 101 women, were fighting for 107 Lok 
Sabha seats.  Polling is also underway for the 32-member 
Sikkim state legislative assembly.  More than 144 million 
people are eligible to vote in the third round.  In the three 
rounds of voting, an electorate of 497 million (out of a 
total of 714 million) has made its selection for 372 (out of 
543) seats in the lower house of parliament.  The next round 
of polls takes place on May 7.  After the completion of 
voting next month, votes will be counted and results 
announced on May 16. 
 
The Contested States 
--- 
 
¶3.  (U) The 107 parliamentary constituencies going to the 
polls in the first phase are located in the following states: 
 
-- Bihar (11/40 seats; polling in state will be completed in 
phase 4) 
-- Gujarat  (26/26 seats) 
-- Jammu & Kashmir  (1/6 seats) 
-- Karnataka  (11/28 seats; polling for all 28 seats now 
completed) 
-- Madhya Pradesh (16/29 seats; polling for all 29 seats now 
completed) 
-- Maharashtra (10/48 seats; polling for all 48 seats now 
completed) 
-- Sikkim  (1/1 seat, concurrent state assembly elections) 
-- Uttar Pradesh (15/80 seats; polling for 48/80 completed in 
phases 1-3) 
-- West Bengal (14/42 seats) 
-- Dadra & Nagar Haveli (1/1 seat) 
-- Daman & Du (1/1 seat) 
 
Moderate Early Turnout 
--- 
 
¶4.  (U) Voting began on a moderate note, due in part to hot 
weather throughout the country, and is expected to pick up by 
the end of day.  According to local media, Bihar registered 
10-12% voter turnout and Sikkim saw 15% voters in the initial 
hours.  Maharashtra recorded 5-10%, Uttar Pradesh 16% and 
Madhya Pradesh 10% of polling in the first three hours.  The 
Election Commission will report preliminary turnout a few 
hours after polls close at 1700 hrs local time. 
 
Peaceful Polls 
--- 
 
NEW DELHI 00000864  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U) The April 30 poll was relatively peaceful and orderly 
in the Indian context.  There were reports of scattered 
Maoist-linked disruptions to polling in Bihar that resulted 
in minor injury.  Suspected Maoists exploded a landmine in 
West Bengal's Purulia district injuring one security 
personnel.  Apart from this incident, polling was peaceful in 
nine districts in the north and Maoist violence-hit western 
parts of West Bengal.  There was no reported violence in 
Jammu & Kashmir, as the GOI deployed paramilitary troops 
throughout Srinagar and surrounding areas to thwart 
anti-election protests prompted by a separatist boycott. 
 
Big Name Contests 
--- 
 
¶6.  (U) Congress President Sonia Gandhi is seeking 
re-election from the traditional Nehru-Gandhi constituency of 
Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh.  BJP Prime Ministerial Candidate 
L.K. Advani is contesting from Gandhinagar, where he has won 
with comfortable margins in the last three elections.  Some 
of the other prominent personalities contesting during phase 
three include: former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda; JD(U) 
Chief Sharad Yadav; Congress leader Milind Deora; sitting 
Congress MPs Priya Dutt and Jyotiraditya Scindia; and former 
Karnataka Chief Minister S. Bangarappa. 
 
¶7.  (U) The Election Commission has prohibited exit polls on 
grounds that they can be manipulated and could influence 
voter behavior in subsequent rounds.  It is not possible, 
therefore, to get a quick read on any trends or patterns in 
how voters cast their ballots today.  It will take a few days 
before the buzz from internal party surveys and political 
pundits' analysis begins to make the rounds on how the 
parties fared in this round in the various states. 
 
Eastern India - 26 Seats 
--- 
 
¶8.  (U) In eastern India, 26 seats were at stake in Bihar, 
West Bengal and Sikkim in the third round of the polls on 
April 30.  Voters in Sikkim also cast their ballots to elect 
a new state legislative assembly.  After the third round, 
Bihar has one more phase to go, while West Bengal began its 
first of three phases. 
 
¶9.  (U) In West Bengal and Bihar, governance and development 
are the primary elections issues.  Whereas caste plays a 
significant role in dictating electoral behavior in Bihar, 
ethnicity is a significant factor in northern West Bengal 
(where ethnic Gorkhas have campaigned for greater recognition 
and statehood) and in the Maoist-influenced southwestern 
areas.  The discord within the United Progressive Alliance 
(UPA) in Bihar has thrown the traditional electoral alliances 
out the window.  As a result, regional parties are expected 
to improve on their 2004 performance in Bihar (Janata 
Dal-United).  In West Bengal, Trinamul and Congress together 
pose the most formidable threat to the Left Front's 32-year 
domination of state politics led by the Communist Party of 
India Marxist (CPI-M). 
 
Western India - 54 Seats 
--- 
 
¶10.  (U) In western India, an estimated 60 million voters 
cast their ballots for the final 10 seats in Maharasthra, 16 
in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and all 26 seats in Gujarat.  In 
Gujarat and MP, it is largely a straight fight between the 
Congress and BJP.  The Congress performed better than 
expected in Gujarat in 2004 elections, winning 12 of 26 
seats, and hopes to make gains this time around.  Given the 
BJP's dominance in the state, however, Gujarat appears to be 
more the BJP's to lose.  In MP, the Congress is likely to 
make gains after almost two decades of steady losses.  In 
Maharashtra, six of ten seats fall in India's financial 
 
NEW DELHI 00000864  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
capital, Mumbai, while the remaining four are in adjoining 
districts.  The main national parties, Congress and BJP, are 
contesting seats with regional alliance partners, the 
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena. 
 
Southern India - 11 Seats 
--- 
 
¶11. (U) Eleven districts in Karnataka will go to polls today 
in the final phase of polling for 28 Lok Sabha seats.  An 
estimated 15 million people turned out to cast their votes. 
For the most part, the election is a three-legged race 
between the BJP, Congress and Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) 
battling out to win the remaining 11 seats.  Initial 
assessments in the days before the polls are that the BJP is 
expected to perform well in the state, possibly matching its 
2004 performance when it picked up 18 of the state's 28 seats. 
 
Northern India - 16 Seats 
--- 
 
¶12. (U) Fifteen seats representing over 22 million voters 
went to the polls in Uttar Pradesh (UP).  India's largest 
state, UP sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha.  Sonia Gandhi's 
seat of Rae Barlei voted today and will no doubt return the 
Congress Party President to parliament.  Sonia's daughter 
Priyanka campaigned extensively for her mother over the last 
several weeks in the largely rural constituency.  But the 
main fight in UP remains between the Bahujan Samaj Party of 
Chief Minister Mayawati and its archrival, Mulayam Singh 
Yadav's Samajwadi Party.  Mayawati was among the first voters 
of the day in the UP capital constituency Lucknow, where her 
BSP candidate, Akhilesh Das, faces a tough battle with the 
BJP candidate, Lalji Tandon for former Prime Minister Atal 
Bihari Vajpayee's seat. 
 
¶13.  (U) Voters went to polls for one of six seats in Jammu 
and Kashmir.  There was nearly 15% turnout at 1 pm local time 
in the Anantnag district of Kashmir, and observers expect 
numbers to reach 20-25%.  This is a substantial increase from 
2004 elections, with 15% voter turnout.  According to 
contacts, the election is a two-way contest between the 
People's Democratic Party and the ruling National Conference. 
 Voting was generally peaceful throughout the south Kashmir 
constituency despite threats by Pakistan-based terrorist 
groups to disrupt elections and a separatist call for a 
boycott.  Anantnag is the first of three Lok Sabha districts 
in Kashmir to go to polls, followed by elections in Srinagar 
on May 7 and Baramulla on May 13. 
BURLEIGH