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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000817 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: ROUND TWO OF INDIAN 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: BHARAT BALLOT 09 SERIES 
 
¶1.  Summary: (U) On April 23, Indian voters cast their 
ballots in 141 election districts across 13 states in the 
second of five phases of parliamentary elections.  Polling in 
the second phase was mostly peaceful and smooth.  Final 
turnout numbers were not available at COB, but turnout 
appeared to be slow in the early hours of polling, in part 
due to searing heat in many parts of the country.  Votes will 
be counted and results announced on May 16 after all five 
phases of polling have been completed and 714 million voters 
have had a chance to cast their ballot to elect a new lower 
house of parliament and a new government.  End Summary. 
 
Halfway There 
------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Voters in 13 states went to the polls in the second 
and largest of five phases of India's national parliamentary 
elections.  The second phase comprised 141 of India's 543 
seats.  The total electorate in these constituencies was 195 
million;  2,041 candidates from 166 political parties 
contested for these seats.  In the first two rounds an 
electorate of 353 million (out of a total of 714 million) has 
made its selection for 265 (out of a total of 543) seats in 
the lower house of parliament.  The next round of polls takes 
place on April 30.  Counting will take place and results 
announced on May 16 after the completion of all five phases 
of polling over the next month. 
 
Slow Early Turnout 
------------------ 
 
¶3.  (U) The Election Commission will report preliminary 
turnout a few hours after polls close.  Early voter turnout 
was sluggish, in part due to the searing heat in parts of the 
country that went to the polls.  Two election officials in 
Orissa died because of the heat.  The final turnout is 
expected to pick up by the end of the day and be in line with 
previous elections. 
 
Peaceful Polls 
-------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) The April 23 poll was an extremely peaceful and 
orderly one, in the Indian context.  There were no reported 
deaths or serious injuries on poll day.  There were scattered 
Maoist-linked disruptions to polling in Bihar and Jharkhand, 
including a landmine blast and a reported train highjacking a 
day before the polls, and an apparent attack on a polling 
station on polling day.  Reports of poll-related violence 
came in from four different places in Andhra Pradesh Chief 
Minister's home district of Kadapa. There were also reports 
of disturbances from Praja Rajyam President Chiranjeevi's 
constituency in the temple town of Tirupati.  There was a 
report of a clash between Congress Party and Telegu Desam 
Party at a polling booth in Mydukuru in Andhra Pradesh. 
 
Big Names Contestants 
--------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Some of the prominent personalities contesting during 
phase 2 include: Rahul Gandhi; GOI Ministers Sharad Pawar 
(Agriculture), Sushil Kumar Shinde (Power), Kamal Nath 
(Commerce and Industry), Ram Vilas Paswan (Chemicals and 
Fertilizers, Steel), A.R. Antulay (Minority Affairs); BJP 
leader Sushma Swaraj; Chairman of India's Olympic Committee 
BJP's Suresh Kalmadi;  Andhra Pradesh Congress Chief Minister 
Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy; Telegu Desam Party leader Chandrababu 
Naidu; Praja Rajyam President Chiranjeevi; UPA leader Pawar's 
daughter Supriya Sule; Former Indian Coal Minister and former 
Jharkhand Chief Minister Shibu Soren; Maharashtra BJP leader 
Gopinath Munde; Assam United Democratic Front's Badruddin 
 
NEW DELHI 00000817  002 OF 004 
 
 
Ajmal. 
 
The Contested States 
-------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) The 141 parliamentary constituencies going to the 
polls in the first phase are located in the following states: 
-- Assam (11/14 seats; polling in state completed in phases 1 
and 2) 
-- Manipur (1/1 seat) 
-- Tripura (2/2 seats) 
-- Bihar (13/40 seats; polling for 26/40 seats completed in 
phases 1 and 2) 
-- Jharkhand (8/14 seats; polling in state completed in 
phases 1 and 2) 
-- Orissa (11/21 seats; polling in state completed in phases 
1 and 2; concurrent state assembly elections) 
-- Uttar Pradesh (17/80 seats; polling for 33/80 completed in 
phases 1 and 2) 
-- Andhra Pradesh (20/42 seats; polling in state completed in 
phases 1 and 2;concurrent state assembly elections) 
-- Maharashtra (25/48 seats; polling for 38/48 seats 
completed in phases 1 and 2;) 
-- Goa (2/2 seats) 
-- Karnataka (17/28 seats) 
-- Madhya Pradesh (13/29 seats) 
-- Jammu and Kashmir (1 out of 6 seats; polling of 2/6 seats 
completed in phases 1 and 2) 
 
¶7.  (U) The Election Commission has prohibited exit polls on 
grounds that they can be manipulated and could influence 
voter behavior in subsequent rounds.  It is not possible, 
therefore, to get a quick read on any trends or patterns in 
how voters cast their ballots today.  It will take a few days 
before the buzz from internal party surveys and political 
pundits' analysis begins to make the rounds on how the 
parties fared in this round in the various states. 
 
Tidbits 
------- 
 
-- Prime Minister Manmohan Singh cast his vote in Assam, from 
where he an appointed member of parliament to the upper house 
and did not contest the Lok Sabha elections. 
 
-- Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik of Orissa whose Biju Janata 
Dal pulled out of its alliance with the BJP ahead of the 
elections ruled out support to either the Congress Party or 
the BJP in Delhi after the election. He called a tie-up with 
the BJP "untenable" after the violence against Christians in 
Kandhamal last year. 
 
-- Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said he had told his UPA 
colleagues that "we should keep the Left with us" because the 
UPA will need their support. 
 
Communist leader Prakash Karat said that it is "not possible" 
for his party to form a government with the Congress Party. 
 
-- AIADMK's Jayalalithaa said that a politican never rules 
out anything but what she is looking for is a "dispensation 
which is non-Congress, non-BJP government." 
 
-- Lok Janashakti Party leader Ram Vilas Paswan said that 
after the elections are completed UP and Bihar regional party 
leaders Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mulayum Singh Yadav and Paswan 
will "call the shots." 
 
 
Eastern India - 46 Seats 
------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (U) In eastern, India 46 seats were at stake in Bihar, 
 
NEW DELHI 00000817  003 OF 004 
 
 
Jharkhand, Orissa, Assam, Manipur and Tripura in the second 
round of the polls on April 23.  Voters in Orissa also cast 
their ballots to elect a new state legislative assembly. 
With the second round, elections are now over in Jharkhand, 
Orissa and Assam; however, Bihar has two more phases to go 
while West Bengal begins its three phases on April 30. 
 
¶9.  (U) While development is an electoral issue all across 
the east, each state has its own supplementary electoral 
issue: good governance in Bihar; political instability in 
Jharkhand; religious violence in Orissa; and Bangladeshi 
migration in Assam.  Whereas caste plays a significant role 
in dictating electoral behavior in Bihar, in Jharkhand, 
Orissa and Assam tribe and ethnicity are more significant 
factors.  The discord within the United Progressive Alliance 
(UPA) in Bihar and in Jharkhand along with the split in 
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Orissa have thrown the 
traditional electoral alliances out the window. Predictions 
are that the BJP in Jharkhand and the Congress in Orissa will 
make gains over regional parties.  Regional parties are 
expected to improve on their 2004 performance in Bihar 
(Janata Dal-United) and Assam (Assam United Democratic 
Front.) 
 
Western India - 40 Seats 
------------------------ 
 
¶10. (U) In the second phase of elections, 25 out of 48 seats 
in Maharashtra headed to the polls, in a swath down the 
center of the state and into the Konkan region along the 
southwestern coast.  In Madhya Pradesh 13 of 26 seats went to 
the polls in the eastern part of the state.  Bhopal voted in 
this second round, but Indore and the western reaches of the 
state go to the polls on April 30th.  Voters also cast their 
ballots for Goa's two seats.  All western Indian seats were 
essentially Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - Congress contests, 
with the Shiv Sena partnering with the BJP and the National 
Congress Party (NCP) partnering with Congress in Maharashtra. 
 The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) sought to gain ground, but 
observers did not think the party would be much of a spoiler 
for either party. 
 
¶11. (U)  Voter turnout was not available at COB. While 
traditionally voter turnout is 60-70 percent in national 
elections, reports are that as of midday only about 15 
percent of those eligible had yet cast their votes in 
Maharashtra.  Voter turnout in Madhya Pradesh is reportedly 
down from 87 percent in the last national election to only 21 
percent as of 1 pm.  Voting in Goa is also reportedly 
proceeding slowly.  The chief electoral office reported that 
as of 11 am only 10.4 percent of the votes were polled in 
North Goa, while the response in South Goa was poorer at 8.4 
percent. 
 
Southern India - 37 Seats 
------------------------- 
 
¶12. (U) Voters in seventeen constituencies in Karnataka went 
to the polls today.  An estimated 20.6 million voters will 
decide the fate of the 273 candidates looking to represent 
Karnataka in New Delhi.  From all accounts polling was quite 
peaceful and voter turnout is estimated at 60 percent.  For 
the most part this election will be a be a three-legged race 
with the BJP, Congress and Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) battling 
out to win the seventeen seats up for grabs.   Initial 
assessments in the days before the polls are that the BJP is 
expected to perform well in the state, possibly matching its 
2004 performance when it picked up 18 of the state's 28 
seats. 
 
¶13.  (U) The second phase in Andhra Pradesh included 
elections in 20 parliamentary and 140 state assembly 
constituencies across four districts in Rayalseema and six 
 
NEW DELHI 00000817  004 OF 004 
 
 
districts in south Coastal Andhra. Together with the 22 seats 
that went to the polls in the phase, state assembly and 
parliamentary elections are now over in the state.  Unlike 
during the first phase, elaborate security arrangements to 
ensure peaceful polling leaked a bit in phase two, with a few 
reports of violence.  Media contacts indicate that there was 
only a 12-13 percent turnout in the first few hours and 
electronic media reports only a 50 percent turnout by the end 
of the day (both figures are slightly lower than during the 
first phase). Since polling began this morning local media 
have talking up the possibility of a TDP victory and in 
private government officials are describing the race as 'neck 
and neck' 
 
Northern India - 18 Seats 
------------------------- 
 
¶13. (U) Besides one seat in Jammu and Kashmir, voters went to 
the polls in 17 seats in central Uttar Pradesh (UP).  The 
total electorate in this portion of the state is 25 million. 
UP, India's largest state, sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha. 
 Rahul Gandhi's seat of Amethi voted today and will no doubt 
return the Congress Party scion to parliament.  Rahul's 
sister Priyanka campaigned extensively for her brother over 
the last several weeks in the largely rural constituency. 
But the main fight in UP remains between the Bahujan Samaj 
Party of Chief Minister Mayawati and its archrival, Mulayam 
Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party.  In the 2004 election the SP 
and the BSP won six and nine seats respectively from these 
seventeen, while the BJP and Congress Party each won one. 
Early reports put turnout at a relatively low 30 percent 
midway through the very hot day.  The Jammu and Kashmir 
contest is for the Udhampur seat in the Jammu region.  The 
BJP candidate is narrowly favored in a four way contest that 
includes the Congress, the People's Democratic Party and the 
Panthers Party. 
 
BURLEIGH