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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000730 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: HIMACHAL POLITICS SPLIT THE 
APPLE BELT 
 
¶1. (U) Summary.  Himachal Pradesh accounts for only four 
seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, but given the 
neck-and-neck national race between the Congress Party and 
the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), every seat counts.  Himachal 
voters, on average more educated and prosperous than other 
Indians, cast their ballots according to local issues; 
development tops the agenda.  Both Congress and the BJP claim 
credit for the infrastructure and social security 
improvements in Himachal, as Congress argues the United 
Progressive Alliance (UPA) government funded all the 
prestigious development projects and BJP counters that the 
current BJP Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal lobbied the 
central government and secured the projects for the state. 
The party that successfully convinces the electorate it 
deserves credit will likely rule the ballot box.  Both 
parties continue to woo the two main voting blocks of the 
apple lobby and government employees.  Local politicians and 
journalists had predicted Congress and BJP would split the 
four seats.  However, after Congress pulled an uninspiring 
candidate from one of the seats and replaced him with a 
former BJP rising star, there is a small glimmer of hope for 
a Congress sweep.  The race in Himachal has "finally become 
interesting."  End Summary. 
 
Himachal Pradesh - Apple of India's Eye 
---- 
 
¶2. (U) Poloff and PolFSN traveled to the northern hill state 
of Himachal Pradesh March 31 to April 3 to assess the 
political climate ahead of May 13 parliamentary elections. 
With a population of only 6 million, Himachal Pradesh ranks 
as one of the smaller Indian states.  However, the small 
Himalayan hill state has prospered, boasting the highest per 
capita incomes in India and the second highest literacy rate. 
 The economy of the state depends upon hydroelectric power, 
tourism, and agriculture.  The abundance of rivers in the 
state accounts for 25 percent of the total national potential 
for hydropower and Himachal sells hydropower to Delhi, 
Punjab, and Rajasthan.  Agriculture contributes over 45 
percent of the net state domestic product and over 93 percent 
of Himachal residents rely on farming for their livelihood. 
Apple farming is one of the largest revenue generators in 
Himachal and the apple lobby wields considerable power. 
 
¶3. (U) Himachal Pradesh has a unicameral legislature with 68 
seats.  Like the rest of India, anti-incumbency has 
characterized Himachal politics as the governments alternate 
between the BJP and Congress parties.  During the last state 
assembly elections in December 2007, BJP wrested power from 
its rival, winning a thumping 41-seat majority.  Commentators 
give the current BJP Chief Minister, Prem Kumar Dhumal, 
positive marks for his accessibility and his moves to 
increase daily wages and pensions for government workers. 
Himachal has four Lok Sabha seats: Hamirpur, Mandi, Shimla, 
and Kangra.  Congress won 3 seats in the last parliamentary 
elections in 2004.  Himachal politics have little room for 
regional or caste-based parties.  In 2007, the Bahujan Samaj 
Party (BSP) attempted to establish a presence in Himachal, 
but a complete lack of grassroots support spoiled its 
strategy, leading many party candidates to jump ship and join 
the two national parties.  Journalists estimate the BSP 
currently has four percent of the votes, mainly among the 
lower castes. 
 
"Low-tech" Himachal Enjoys a Personal Touch 
---- 
 
¶4. (U) Himachal's polling date falls during the final phase 
of elections on May 13; consequently the campaigns are not 
yet in full swing.  Journalists told Poloff Himachal is "not 
a high tech state," and campaigns with a personal touch enjoy 
 
NEW DELHI 00000730  002 OF 004 
 
 
the most success.  It is standard operating practice for 
party luminaries to make appearances at weddings and funerals 
to connect with voters.  Hindustan Times' reporter Gaurav 
Bisht predicted that overall voter turnout will be lower than 
during local assembly elections, underscoring the importance 
of local issues to the electorate.  However, Bisht observed 
higher literacy levels have led to greater awareness among 
women and young voters, especially in Kangra, where turnout 
is expected to be high. 
 
¶5. (U) Indian Express stringer Ashwani Sharma predicts the 
BJP will use a strategy of bombarding the state with visits 
by high-level politicians who will fan out across the hills. 
BJP State President Jai Ram Thakur confirmed that party 
heavy-hitters L.K. Advani, Narendra Modi, and Sushma Swaraj 
will campaign in Himachal beginning May 6.  He also detailed 
the party's three phase strategy: local level village 
meetings, door-to-door campaigning for 20 days, and large 
public meetings.  Commentators agreed that BJP's organization 
in Himachal far outstrips Congress'.  The journalists 
observed that infighting has plagued Congress in Himachal, 
preventing the party from "getting its act together."  The 
state's Congress Party General Secretary Kuldeep Singh 
Rathore rebutted this charge, noting the party's campaign is 
quietly underway and thriving in Mandi and Kangra. 
 
National Issues are Non-Issues 
---- 
 
¶6. (U) Commentators and politicians unanimously agreed 
Himachal voters cast their ballots based on local issues, 
especially development.  As a small state, Himachal Pradesh 
depends on the central government funding of costly road and 
rail projects, which are priorities for agriculture and 
tourism sectors, the state's big revenue generators. 
Although funded by the UPA-led central government, voters 
largely credited BJP Chief Minister Dhumal for infrastructure 
improvements, praising his effective "personal touch" with 
New Delhi politicians.  Dhumal also increased average 
government employee daily wages from USD 1.53 to USD 4.09, 
winning favor with this substantial pool of voters.  As a 
largely homogenous state that has avoided terrorism and 
communal violence, these local concerns completely eclipse 
national issues. 
 
¶7. (U) Both the BJP and Congress parties claim credit for 
Himachal's development success, while throwing barbs at the 
other party for failing to focus on the issue.  BJP State 
President Jai Ram Thakur told Poloff the BJP's "tremendous 
efforts" resulted in safe drinking water in every Himachal 
village and increased road connectivity.  BJP also touted the 
party's opening of the hydroelectricity sector to private 
enterprise, increasing competitiveness to meet the aim of an 
energy self reliant Himachal by 2020.  The Congress Party, 
however, views this power sector initiative as a BJP 
fundraising vehicle to channel kickbacks for awarding 
contracts.  Thakur relayed that BJP views government 
employees as the most important segment of the electorate, 
evident by the 36 percent pay hike the party pushed through 
during its first year in power. 
 
¶8. (U) Congress State General Secretary Kuldeep Singh Rathore 
countered that the BJP cannot take credit for the 
achievements of the UPA government in Himachal.  He claimed 
Congress should enjoy the credit for water and road 
improvements.  Rathore argued that Congress initiatives, such 
as the 2005 National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and 
establishment of more educational institutions, are aimed at 
the state's two main voting blocks of apple growers and 
government employees.  The battle over which party can claim 
credit boils down to how voters perceive the role of Chief 
 
NEW DELHI 00000730  003 OF 004 
 
 
Minister Dhumal versus the UPA government in winning 
prestigious development projects for Himachal.  Analysts 
commented that while the UPA government funded 95 percent of 
the improvements, Congress must educate the electorate on the 
funding process if it hopes to win them over.  The Congress 
Party also hopes to make corruption a major campaign issue, 
pointing to alleged irregularities in certain procurement 
agreements during the BJP's tenure. 
 
Hamirpur - How Do You Like Them Apples, BJP? 
---- 
 
¶9. (U) In Hamirpur, commentators -- and the Congress Party's 
General Secretary -- agreed the BJP candidate and son of the 
Chief Minister, Anurag Thakur, would likely trounce the 
Congress candidate, Madan Lal.  Lal, a 58 year-old former 
cricketer, joined Congress in mid-March and his candidacy did 
not spark the positive electoral buzz the party had hoped. 
Instead, voters and media dismissed Lal as a Delhite who has 
done little for his native state.  On April 1, Madan Lal 
admitted himself into the hospital complaining of high blood 
pressure and a backache.  Reporters divulged that Lal's 
sudden illness was "a little too convenient."  Two days 
later, Congress announced Lal's replacement with Narender 
Thakur, a move roundly supported by party workers.  Thakur, 
son of very popular BJP stalwart and former Minister Jagdev 
Singh Thakur, switched from the BJP to Congress only six 
months ago.  Analysts suggested that the Hamirpur race has 
"finally become interesting" as Thakur tries to make a dent 
in this BJP stronghold. 
 
Mandi - Cakewalk for Congress 
---- 
 
¶10. (U) Congress leader and five-time Chief Minister 
Virbhadra Singh will face BJP three-time member of parliament 
Maheshwar Singh for the Mandi seat.  Although Maheshwar has 
represented Mandi in the Lok Sabha in 1989, 1998, and 1999, 
commentators largely expect the race to be a "cakewalk" for 
Virbhadra, a highly popular politician.  In a meeting with 
EmbOffs, the former maharaja and favorite of the apple lobby 
praised the UPA government's contributions to Himachal and 
blasted BJP propaganda claiming credit for the UPA's 
achievements.  Virbhadra noted that the central government 
funds all the programs cited by BJP, from health to 
employment schemes.  He added, "what has the BJP done in 
Himachal but indulge in favoritism?"  When asked if Congress 
would repeat its 3-1 victory of 2004, he became defensive, 
remarking that he was not responsible for the statewide 
campaign.  He conceded that his party would not win a clean 
sweep, indicating that Congress had given up on Hamirpur 
(Note.  The meeting occurred before Congress replaced Lal 
with Thakur for the Hamirpur seat.  End Note).  Virbhadra 
expects the positive trend in Indo-U.S. relations will 
continue, as India looks to President Obama to restore peace 
and stability in the world with India as a "crucial partner" 
in this struggle. 
 
Shimla and Kangra - A Draw 
---- 
 
¶11. (U)  Analysts were divided in their predictions for 
Shimla and Kangra, the remaining two seats in Himachal. 
Shimla has been the Congress party's pocket borough for over 
five decades and reporters believe the party still maintains 
a slight advantage over BJP.  Pratibha Chauhan of The Tribune 
asserted the BJP will fight for "the prestige seat," for 
otherwise Chief Minister Dhumal cannot "hold his head high" 
in the state capital.  According to Chauhan, Himachal's "very 
sensible" electorate will remember that the BJP will rule the 
state for another 4 years in the local assembly, thus 
 
NEW DELHI 00000730  004 OF 004 
 
 
bolstering BJP's chances in Shimla.   Freelance journalist, 
Virendra Thukhral remarked Congress could receive a needed 
boost if Mandi's Virbhadra Singh, "the most popular Himachal 
politician," campaigned in Shimla.  The Kangra seat is a wild 
card and commentators were evenly split in their predictions. 
 Voters in this constituency tend to cast their ballots along 
caste lines and former Congress legislator from Dharamsala, 
Surinder Kakor, observed that the caste equation favors the 
Congress party.  He predicts the large Other Backward Caste 
(OBC) population in Kangra will vote for the Congress and the 
BJP candidate, an upper class legislator, will face an 
adverse caste configuration.  He also believes that dissent 
within the BJP will hurt the party in Kangra. 
 
Comment: Congress Could Sweep 
---- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Most analysts predict a 2-2 split for Himachal with 
Congress taking Shimla and Mandi and BJP winning Hamirpur and 
Kangra.  However, Congress' effective, albeit suspicious, 
move to replace Lal with Thakur could open the door for a 
victory in the BJP stronghold of Hamirpur, although it will 
be a challenge.  The Kangra seat continues to stump analysts 
and with over four weeks left in the campaign, either party 
could break the tie.  End Comment. 
BURLEIGH