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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000710 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: A VIEW FROM THE GROUND LEVEL 
 
REF: BHARAT BALLOT 09 SERIES 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  As part of Embassy New Delhi's coverage of the 
2009 Indian general elections, we will provide a series of reports 
from a rural constituency in Uttar Pradesh to give some feel for how 
the election looks from the ground level.  Bulandshahr, a market town 
of 175,000 located 40 miles from New Delhi, reflects many of the 
challenges that a modernizing India faces, as a largely agricultural 
country becomes increasingly urbanized and voters' expectations of 
improved governance collide with long-established ways of doing 
business.  Politics in this constituency still largely revolve around 
calculations of caste and religion.  But there are signs of a more 
demanding electorate as educational levels increase, communications 
with the neighboring Delhi metropolis quicken and voters expect more 
from the political class.  As the campaign season progresses, we will 
describe what retail politics look like in at least one corner of 
India, what the voters see and hear before making their decisions, 
and what the politicians and their managers do to get their votes. 
End Summary. 
 
As Bulandshahr Goes, So Goes ? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Leaving the main Delhi-Lucknow road and the urban fringe 
of Delhi's National Capital Region, the massive apartment blocks 
under construction soon give way to fields of irrigated wheat and 
sugar cane.  Bullock carts and overloaded trucks crowd the heavily 
rutted and pot-holed road.  A new factory producing tiles for export 
on the outskirts of town is one obvious example of the economic 
changes overtaking the constituency.  The chaotic center of 
Bulandshahr City looks a lot like many similar market and 
administrative towns that dot the Doab, the fertile alluvial tract 
between the Ganges and Yamuna rivers.  Bulandshahr's history is not 
particularly distinguished -- it grabs a brief mention in the great 
Hindu epic the Mahabarata and was the scene of some fighting during 
the 1857 Rebellion against the British, but little of note has 
happened here in the intervening 150 years. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  In several important ways, the Bulandshahr constituency 
mirrors demographically both Uttar Pradesh and India as a whole. 
Like both, three quarters of the population of 2.3 million are 
considered rural.  Hindus make up 79 percent of the population, 
Muslims are 20 percent.  But there are differences that reflect the 
greater poverty in UP.  Like the rest of the state, members of the 
so-called Scheduled Castes (21 percent) and Other Backward Castes 
(OBC)(56 percent) form a larger proportion of eligible voters.  An 
overall literacy rate of 67 percent and female literacy of 52 percent 
are similar to other Uttar Pradesh constituencies, but are lower than 
India as a whole.  Only 22 percent of children are fully immunized 
and 43 percent of the population has electricity at home.  Average 
annual household income in 2007 clocked in at USD 2,000, about 
average for UP, but 20 percent lower than the rest of India. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Bulandshahr is not a political bellwether in the sense 
that the results here forecast the final tallies in India as a whole 
or even UP.  The country is far too diverse to find any one 
constituency that has that sort of predictive value.  In the 2004 
election, the constituency elected former BJP UP Chief Minister 
Kalyan Singh, who presided over the state during the 1992 Ayodhya 
Temple controversy.  However, the redrawing of the constituency's 
boundaries as part of India's massive "delimitation" exercise last 
year and its designation as a reserved seat from which only Scheduled 
Caste members can compete as candidates have shaken up the political 
scene.  Political parties have had to rejigger formerly successful 
polling formulas and field new candidates. 
 
Meet the "Incumbent" MP 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Four-term MP Ashok Pradhan, the BJP's 2009 candidate for 
the seat, stakes a claim as the incumbent, since he hails from a 
nearby pottery making town and has close ties to Bulandshahr City. 
In Parliament since 1996, Pradhan was confident that his daily 
outreach to constituents and his reputation as a successful local 
 
NEW DELHI 00000710  002 OF 003 
 
 
businessman who comes from a very humble background will appeal to 
voters.  He and his advisors argued to us that as a member of a lower 
caste with connections made while serving as Union Minister for 
Labor, Human Resources and Communications and IT during the NDA 
Coalition government in Delhi from 2001-04, he would be able to pull 
together a winning combination of upper caste Brahimins, members of 
the Bania trading community and Jat farmers to win this reserved 
seat. 
 
Caste of Mind 
------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Pradhan's focus on caste considerations reflects the way 
politics have been played in UP ever since the collapse of Congress' 
hegemony more than twenty-five years ago.  When we spoke in late 
March to representatives from the BJP, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (a BJP 
ally), the Samajwadi Party, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), each 
tried to pitch us on the likelihood that their likely candidate would 
be able to hit on a formula that would unite sufficient caste groups 
to win the election.  Sarvesh Agrawal, a member of the Traders' 
Federation and representative of the BSP, headed by UP Chief Minister 
Mayawati, claimed that the party would be able to repeat its success 
in the 2007 UP Legislative Assembly elections by uniting Dalits 
(lower caste members), upper caste Brahmins and even Muslim voters. 
Irfan Khan, a Muslim who heads the Minorities Cell of the BSP, 
seconded Agrawal's claim that the BSP would rack up Muslim votes. 
Kiran Pal Singh, a lawyer who serves as the State General Secretary 
of the Samajwadi Party which bitterly opposes the BSP, disagreed 
sharply.  He insisted that Muslim voters and OBCs would be the 
winning combination for his party and attacked CM Mayawati for doing 
little for the average voter while building monuments and parks to 
celebrate her accession to power as a Dalit Chief Minister.  Congress 
Party nominee and former Union Petroleum Secretary Devi Dayal was the 
sole politician who did not make a caste argument; he claimed that 
secular and educated middle class voters would form his electoral 
base.  (Comment:  This well-connected former civil servant was one of 
the more thoughtful politicians we spoke to, but his personal 
political calculations seemed unrealistic, given the political 
considerations that have driven UP politics for many years.) 
 
All Politics Are Local 
---------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Other than the Congress Party nominee, few of the 
political figures we met raised any national political issues.  Hot 
button topics in Delhi like the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement or 
Pakistan-Afghanistan were ignored.  The BJP candidate touched on the 
threat of terrorism and the need for a stronger national security 
policy in vague terms, but the overwhelming focus was on electricity 
and better roads and the law and order situation (either sharply 
deteriorating, according to opposition Samajwadi Party members, or 
better than ever, if you listen to the ruling BSP party).  Even the 
economy, a touchstone in most Indian elections, was barely discussed, 
although several political managers noted that rising food prices 
were a voter complaint. 
 
Lackluster Electioneering So Far 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  In the drive into town, we saw few signs that an election 
would take place in less than two months.  While there were Bollywood 
posters advertising the next coming attraction and announcements 
everywhere for a popular Hindu guru who was making a limited 
appearance in Bulandshahr, we saw no political ads until we returned 
to the outskirts of Delhi.  Some of this may be a function of the 
electoral calendar:  the last date for filing nominations will be 
April 18 and the polling date for this constituency is May 7. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  At this point, most of the focus for our interlocutors was 
on organizing and motivating party cadres.  All insisted that a 
successful get-out-the-vote effort depended on grass roots 
organization building, but most were critical of Election Commission 
restrictions on campaigning, arguing that it could depress turnout 
and reduce the enthusiasm of party workers.  A local ban on 
 
NEW DELHI 00000710  003 OF 003 
 
 
wall-writing and posters was the subject of much hand wringing. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  While party work was paramount at this stage, campaigning 
is beginning to take shape.  Parties are handing out handbills to 
voters and organizing processions of sound trucks that fly party 
flags as they drive through neighborhoods and broadcast political 
appeals.  Contacts predicted that door-to-door campaigning and nukkad 
(street corner) meetings would begin once candidates had been 
selected.  Most thought that big party rallies, where voters are 
bussed in and often receive a meal or small gratuity for attending, 
were one of the most effective ways to reach voters.  Few saw any 
benefit from more sophisticated voter outreach techniques - many 
thought the SMS messages parties have begun to send out to the 
growing number of voters with mobile phones were annoying.  One party 
strategist noted that the local cable channel allowed political 
advertisements, but was skeptical about the benefits of electronic 
advertising. 
 
BURLEIGH