VZCZCXRO8447
OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #0810/01 1141422
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241422Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9307
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUZEFAA/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000810 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND ACTING A/S CARTER 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM SO
 
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Aweys' Return to Mogadishu 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) On April 23, opposition leader Hassan Dahir Aweys 
(Hawiye/Habar Gedir/Ayr) returned to Mogadishu after a more than 
two-year absence.  With a checkered past that has found Aweys in the 
leadership of many of Somalia's Islamic movements, he is now 
considered the leader of the Hisbul Islam (HI) alliance.   Aweys 
arrived via a chartered plane from Asmara, Eritrea and was met by 
heavily armed militias reportedly dispatched by fellow HI leader 
Omar Iman.  On April 23, Aweys addressed a handful of supporters 
announcing that he would engage peacefully with the government and 
that he would address the public in a rally the following day.  On 
April 24, Aweys addressed hundreds of supporters in a relatively 
isolated neighborhood of Mogadishu.  Though he said he advocated 
peace, Aweys unequivocally stated that AMISOM should leave the 
country immediately.  He welcomed parliament's endorsement of Sharia 
but stated that this version of Sharia could not be authentic 
because it passed muster with Ethiopia and the U.S.  While some 
believe that Aweys still wields considerable weight within his clan, 
our contacts also agree that Aweys has lost the influence he one 
enjoyed which would enable him to challenge Sharif in his leadership 
position.  Most recognize that Aweys still has the potential to 
cause trouble even if he must strike a conciliatory note with the 
TFG.  End summary. 
 
------------- 
Aweys Returns 
------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Opposition leader Hassan Dahir Aweys (Hawiye/Habar 
Gedir/Ayr) returned to Mogadishu on April 23 after a more than 
two-year absence.  Aweys was the Chairman of the now-defunct Al 
Itihad Al-Islami, Chairman of the Supreme Consultative Council of 
the former Union of Islamic Courts (ICU), and Central Committee 
Member of the Asmara-based Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia 
(ARS-A).  Aweys is now considered the leader of the Hisbul Islam 
(HI) alliance.   Aweys has most recently been based in Asmara, 
Eritrea, from where he has spouted anti- Transitional Federal 
Government (TFG) rhetoric, especially after his break with current 
TFG President Sharif. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Aweys arrived on a chartered aircraft from Asmara, Eritrea 
at K50 airstrip, in Lower Shabelle region.  The airstrip is in an 
area under Hisbul Islam (HI) control.  Aweys was reportedly 
accompanied by seven other senior officials from the ARS-Asmara 
group, of which Aweys is the de facto leader.  Heavily-armed 
militias with several technicals, reportedly sent by fellow HI 
leader Omar Iman Abubakar, were at the airstrip to meet Aweys. 
Aweys met with Omar Iman and senior HI leaders including Yusuf 
"Indha Adde" and some members of his Ayr subclan.  Sources in 
Mogadishu informed us that Aweys arrived in Mogadishu by road after 
a brief stopover at Afgoye where he held a closed-door breakfast 
meeting with local HI leaders. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) We confirmed from several of our Mogadishu contacts that 
on April 23 Aweys went to the former pasta factory, the HI 
headquarters, and addressed some journalists and a handful of people 
who turned up to welcome him.  Iman began by announcing Aweys' 
arrival and stated that the HI leader will be meeting with various 
sectors of society.  He announced a large rally on April 24 where 
Aweys will address the public, and that further meetings will be 
held to give more details on Aweys' return. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Aweys thanked God for his return home and for granting him 
the "victory" accorded to true believers.  He said that they will 
employ peaceful measures and not violent means in dealing with the 
government.  A contact in the Office of the President told us Aweys 
attended an Ayr lunch reception in Mogadishu on April 24 where the 
community queried his position on the political situation in 
Somalia. 
 
---------------------------- 
Rally Demonstrates Continued 
Opposition to TFG and AMISOM 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The afternoon of April 24, Aweys addressed hundreds of 
supporters at the former police station in the relatively isolated 
 
NAIROBI 00000810  002 OF 002 
 
 
Wardhigley district of Mogadishu.  (Note: This neighborhood is 
controlled by HI.)  Many observers told us the relatively low 
turnout at this small venue is evidence  that Aweys' arrival did not 
precipitate an outpouring of public support.  Aweys began his 
remarks by stating that he favors peace and opposes any violent 
means of engagement.  However, almost immediately, he launched into 
a criticism of the AMISOM presence in Somalia and called on all 
Somalis to force them to leave "just like we did the Ethiopians." 
Media reported that Aweys said, "AMISOM is not a peacekeeping force 
... They are bacteria in Somalia. Somalia has not yet reached 
peaceful agreement.  We are left with little time to fight and 
achieve our Islamic objective."  Aweys came close to calling for 
violent opposition to AMISOM, and by comparing the AU forces with 
those of Ethiopia, the intent was clear to those who attended the 
rally. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Aweys told the crowd that he congratulates the TFG 
parliament in its endorsement of Sharia law.  He then began to ask 
rhetorically what kind of Sharia law this government intends to 
implement because it endorsed Sharia only after gaining "permission" 
to do so from Ethiopia and the United States.  Aweys said that 
because Ethiopia and the U.S. did not condemn this decision, all 
Somalis must be suspicious. 
 
--------------------- 
Perspectives on Aweys 
--------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Sheikh Abdikadir Somow (Hawiye/Abgaal) spokesman for the 
Alhu Sunna Wal Jamma network told us Aweys is still highly regarded 
within his Ayr community.  However, the generalized call for peace 
among Mogadishu residents suggests that Aweys will have little 
chance to influence his own community to oppose the TFG.  A member 
of President Sharif's staff agreed and told us the Ayr community 
would not blindly follow Aweys in his opposition to the government. 
Both contacts asserted that the Ayr community is keen on grooming 
Aweys as a ceremonial clan leader in order to use his popularity to 
gain favor from the government in return.  Others argue that Aweys' 
absence and HI's violent opposition against the government 
significantly eroded Aweys' influence.  Our contacts aver that Aweys 
has no option but to accept peace in order to remain relevant.  One 
prominent Mogadishu-based civil society leader said, "Aweys' main 
preoccupation now is how to save face and he can only do that by 
accepting peace and supporting the government without conditions." 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Many speculated that Aweys timed his arrival to coincide 
with the absences of President Sharif and Prime Minister Sharmarke 
to unify the armed opposition groups against the TFG.  However, most 
believed that Aweys no longer has the influence to do so.  Our 
contacts told us that Aweys did not speak in his typical 
antagonistic manner and some even reported that he appeared "soft" 
and "reconciliatory."  They also commented that many were 
disappointed that Aweys did not articulate the mission for his 
visit.  While he has not indicated his intention, most believe that 
he is Mogadishu to stay. 
 
RANNEBERGER