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OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #0719/01 0981736
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O 081736Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9127
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUZEFAA/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000719 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND ACTING A/S CARTER 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Somaliland Sets Election Date Amid Protest 
 
REF: Nairobi 645 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  On April 6, Somaliland's National Electoral 
Commission (NEC) announced September 27 as the new date for 
presidential elections citing technical and legal reasons for 
postponing the date from May 31.  Although the voter registration 
law requires the NEC to make decisions regarding the electoral 
process only after agreement between the NEC and the political 
parties, the opposition parties were not consulted.  This 
announcement was made in the wake of the March 28 decision by the 
Guurti (House of Elders) to extend President Riyale's term to 
October 29 (reftel).  To cement the decisions, President Riyale 
issued an April 6 decree approving the Guurti's extension of his 
term and endorsing the September 27 election date.  National 
demonstrations on April 6 commemorating the Somali National Movement 
were divided, with parallel celebrations by the ruling and 
opposition parties.  Police ended the peaceful rally led by 
Kulmiye's presidential candidate Mohamed Silanyo by firing shots in 
the air to disperse the crowd.  There were no casualties but the 
political climate has become highly confrontational.  Each party has 
resisted the consensus politics that have characterized Somaliland. 
Post has initiated calls to key stakeholders, including President 
Riyale, to urge a return to dialogue and is conducting public 
diplomacy activities in coordination with other international 
missions.  End summary. 
 
Electoral Date Set 
Disregard for Voter Registration Law 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On April 6, the NEC announced September 27 as the new date 
for presidential elections.  The NEC press release cited technical 
and legal reasons for postponing elections from May 31, the date to 
which all parties had agreed.  Somaliland's electoral law 
established a code of conduct which states that all major decisions 
regarding voter registration and the starting dates for the 
electoral campaign must be made only after agreement between the NEC 
and the political parties.  The NEC made its announcement 
unilaterally, without consultation or dialogue with the parties. 
Some have alleged that this decision is against the law while others 
offer legal arguments to defend the NEC prerogative to set the date 
on its own.  All agree that the spirit of dialogue, compromise, and 
consensus that has guided the electoral process has been violated. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Our NGO partner Interpeace, which has been working closely 
with the NEC and the political parties on the voter registration 
process, called a steering committee meeting on April 7 with its 
donors to underline the grave nature of the current political 
climate.  Interpeace representatives detailed the worsening 
atmosphere, primarily the escalating confrontation between President 
Riyale and leading opposition candidate Mohamed Silanyo.  They told 
us that both men are desperate to win the presidency and each have 
competing strategies to do so.  Silanyo publicly states that he no 
longer recognizes Riyale as president and is advocating a 
power-sharing agreement to establish a caretaker government prior to 
the elections.  (Note: Silanyo's position that April 6 is the end of 
Riyale's term in office is based on the agreement that was reached 
in 2008 after the Guurti's decision to extend Riyale's term by one 
year). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) With no intention to step down or concede an end to his 
term, on April 6, President Riyale issued a decree approving the 
Guurti's decision to extend his term to October 29 and endorsed the 
September 27 election date proposed by the NEC.  Representatives 
from the ruling UDUB party reportedly told Interpeace that there is 
no longer a need for consensus because the opposition was using it 
as a tool to undermine the nation.  They charge that so long as 
Kulmiye and Silanyo have "veto power" the opposition can forestall 
any decision about the electoral process.  UDUB leaders contend that 
while they have reached out to Silanyo, he refuses to come to the 
table. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Silanyo has countered with his own claims that Riyale is 
engineering delays to perpetually postpone elections and to ensure 
that his ruling party takes every advantage, even defying the law to 
ensure it stays in power.  While Silanyo said he would abide by any 
decision reached by the NEC, he is not arguing about the specific 
election date, but the "illegal" process that produced it.  The 
smaller UCID political party is attempting to mediate, but without 
sufficient leverage.  Some contacts told us that UCID is trying to 
maintain a low profile and gain the support from former UDUB and 
 
NAIROBI 00000719  002 OF 003 
 
 
Kulmiye supporters who UCID expects will peel off in disgust with 
the behavior of both Riyale and Silanyo.  At present, there is no 
formal dialogue and all parties are too entrenched to make the first 
move to return to consensus politics. 
 
Shots Fired 
Political Confrontation Deepens 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The contentious split between the political class was on 
display during the annual commemoration of the Somali National 
Movement (SNM), an armed resistance group formed against Siad 
Barre's government.  While honoring the SNM is typically a national 
event, on April 6 there were parallel celebrations by Kulmiye party 
supporters.  In the days preceding the event, the government 
outlawed any public gatherings to avoid what it said could become 
violent demonstrations.  It finally allowed Kulmiye opposition party 
leaders and supporters to converged at party headquarters in 
Hargeisa.  The commemoration occurred initially without interruption 
from Somaliland authorities as hundreds of youth, SNM veterans, and 
traditional elders peacefully assembled.  However as the event 
ended, police dispersed Kulmiye supporters with gunshots in the air 
as they lifted Silanyo to their shoulders to escort him to his 
nearby house.  There were no reports of casualties. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Some of our contacts told us the commemoration turned 
violent when youth began goading the police.  UDUB leaders said that 
Kulmiye's strategy is to "incite violence," leading the government 
into situations where it will overreact, thus increasing Silanyo's 
eventual chances at the polls.  In an April 7 meeting with visiting 
Minister of Interior Abdillahi Ismail Ali, we registered our concern 
with the April 6 confrontation between police and Kulmiye.  The 
Minister told us the government respects the constitutional right to 
freedom of assembly but that police do not have the proper training 
or equipment to carry out effective crowd control and with high 
unemployment, there is a constant threat of looting.  He said that 
he would personally like to see the electoral process conclude as 
quickly as possible because it is challenging the state security 
apparatus.  We urged him to ensure the government takes the lead in 
preserving the peace while balancing security with democratic 
freedoms to ensure a free and transparent electoral process. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) On April 6, a government-organized event to commemorate 
SNM's anniversary was held at a Hargeisa hotel.  (Note: The 
government has banned any political parties, except UDUB, from using 
hotels for meetings and public gatherings.)  SNM veterans and 
government officials attended the event.  Also present was UCID 
Chairman and presidential candidate, Faisal Ali Warabe.  In his 
speech, Warabe stated that the Guurti's decision was illegal and 
that Kulmiye should not be condemned for its stand.  There should be 
dialogue and compromise on the election dates, he said.  Peaceful 
demonstrations were held in Togdeer, Sahil regions as well as 
Berbera town after police backtracked from earlier order against 
demos in these areas. 
 
Voter Registration - A Success 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) On a positive note, Interpeace reported that the voter 
registration process was advancing and most expected that the final 
voter list would be ready by early to mid-May (in enough time for 
the previous May 31 election date).  This list will be the result of 
an advanced computerized system that employs facial recognition and 
fingerprint identification to certify registrants.  Over 1.3 million 
photos have been fed into the facial recognition software to weed 
out any duplicates.  Interpeace noted that there were over 100,000 
irregular photos, many from registrations concentrated in the ruling 
UDUB party strongholds. Interpeace estimated that the final voter 
list will include between 650,000 to 800,000 registrants. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Interpeace representatives noted that the acceptance of 
the list by all stakeholders will be a political not a mechanical 
issue.  They said that because of the successful system, technical 
difficulties can no longer be an excuse for any shortcomings in the 
voter registration process.  Interpeace concluded that the real 
weakness is in the ineffectual and compromised NEC and the 
stakeholders who are attempting to use the electoral body to 
accomplish individual political agendas. 
 
Post Actions 
------------ 
 
NAIROBI 00000719  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) On April 8, Somalia Unit Counselor called President 
Riyale to underscore our deep concern with recent events and the 
lack of visible commitment of the government to reach consensus. 
Riyale insisted that the decision to postpone the election was not 
his government's, and attempted to fault the protracted voter 
registration process and Kulmiye, which he said "is not interested 
in transparency."  Riyale was adamant that the an unspecified "force 
majeure" had forced postponement, and seemed unwilling to commit to 
reaching consensus with his political opponents.  He accused the 
opposition of "incitement." Lamenting what he said was a lack of 
assistance from the international community, insisted that the 
Somaliland government had to defend itself from "mobs" of the sort 
who allegedly assembled on April 6. 
 
¶12. (SBU)  On April 7, we met with Somaliland Minister of Interior 
Abdillahi Ismail Ali.  Post will call other government 
representatives, and opposition leaders Mohamed Silanyo and Faisal 
Ali Warabe.  In all of these conversations, we have and will make 
the following points: 
-- It is important that at this critical juncture to keep the 
peace. 
-- We are extremely concerned by the events of April 6 with state 
security forces using gunfire to disperse a peaceful crowd. 
-- It appears that all parties are more concerned with 
confrontation, rather than consensus.  Violence must be avoided at 
all costs. 
-- The dialogue process appears to have stalled, all parties must 
open a channel of communication to gain consensus on the electoral 
process. 
-- A return to consensus politics will demonstrate the commitment of 
the Somaliland government to ensure free, fair, and transparent 
elections. 
-- Somaliland's reputation hinges on democratic progress, including 
freedom of speech and assembly. 
-- The era of impunity is over and all leaders have a personal 
responsibility to reach consensus and preserve Somaliland's 
democratic gains. 
-- Somaliland's democratic progress appears under threat and this 
will greatly endanger any eventual case for recognition. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Following a recommendation from the donor steering 
committee organized by Interpeace, we drafted a joint press release 
to publicly state international concern with recent events.  We 
urged calm and a return to dialogue and consensus politics.  The 
donor group also decided to write a letter to the NEC and all the 
political parties announcing that while international support for 
the voter registration process will enable it to successfully 
conclude, we will withhold financial support for the elections 
unless the process is agreed by all parties.  The international 
representatives agreed that only a decisive action, threatening to 
withhold aid, will break the stalemate and encourage all actors to 
return to the table and force dialogue.  We plan to schedule 
interviews for the Ambassador with Somaliland media outlets to 
underscore these points. 
 
RANNEBERGER