VZCZCXRO2814
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #0718/01 0981646
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 081646Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9125
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7485
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 2133
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4598
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 0430
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000718 
 
SIPDIS 
AIDAC 
 
USAID/DCHA FOR EKVITASHVILI 
DCHA/OFDA FOR ACONVERY, KCHANNELL, 
DCHA/FFP FOR JBORNS, JDWORKEN, PMOHAN 
AFR/EA FOR CTHOMPSON, JCICCARONE 
STATE FOR AF/E AND PRM 
USUN FOR DMERCADO 
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR HSPANOS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO
SUBJECT: Somalia - Central Region Drought Decimating Livelihoods 
 
NAIROBI 00000718  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. A briefing on April 2, by the United Nation's Food Security 
Analysis Unit (FSAU) to donors highlighted the severity of the 
ongoing drought in Somalia's Central Regions (Mudug and Galgaduud 
extending into Hiran). Based on an analysis of historical indictors, 
FSAU states that this drought is comparable if not worse than the 
last major drought in this area (1991-92), following four 
consecutive poor harvests beginning in late 2007. 
 
¶2. These regions are primarily rural and livelihoods are 
livestock-based.  Current livestock conditions are poor due to 
massive deaths and high off-take.  Sheep and goat herd sizes are 
down 30 percent from FSAU baseline rates and projected to be 50-60 
percent below baseline by June 2009.  Cattle are hit harder with 
rates having already hit 50 percent below baseline in December 2008. 
 FSAU describes the impact as decimating to these pastoralists' 
livelihoods.  FSAU labels over 400,000 persons in these regions as 
in "humanitarian emergency" or "acute food and livelihood crisis" 
requiring assistance. 
 
¶3. The water situation, and by extension sanitation and hygiene, is 
desperate.  In March, all the open water wells and communal dams 
were entirely dry.  Shallow wells are muddy and silted and not fit 
for human consumption.  Boreholes are the primary source of water 
which provides water to hundreds of thousands of people via water 
trucking. Reportedly the boreholes are also in poor condition 
through over-utilization and lack of money to fuel the pumps.  The 
cost of a drum of water has increased by 150 percent in parts of 
Galgaduud compared to this period last year.  UNICEF reported their 
staff has never seen a water crisis this bad in the Central Region. 
 
¶4. Compounding the situation is the hyperinflation experienced over 
the last year in Somalia increasing food prices by up to 700 
percent. Although prices have decreased in 2009, they remain at 
historically high levels far above long term averages making food 
access a problem; the price of livestock has declined precipitously 
due to the drought further impacting terms of trade. 
 
¶5. FSAU analysis shows most poor Somalis depending on loans, gifts, 
and food aid for basic needs but report some shops closing as debts 
to them are not being repaid.   Remittances are also declining 
although FSAU did not have specific data to indicate by how much. 
 
¶6. The nutrition situation in Central Region is worsening as well. 
Milk is a particularly important source of nutrition for young 
children.  FSAU estimates there are 10,000 severely malnourished 
children in this area with only about 1,500 in treatment or less 
than 20 percent coverage.  The last nutrition surveys in this area 
were in November 2008 (showing moderate malnutrition between 18 -20 
percent exceeding the 15 percent emergency threshold) with the next 
surveys planned for April 2009. 
 
 
¶7. The forecast for the coming (Gu) rainy season between April - 
June, indicates a higher than normal probability of below normal 
rainfall. Some light showers have started in parts of Somalia which 
could indicate an early beginning - as well as early end - which 
would be harmful for crop production and extend the subsequent dry 
season. 
 
¶8. By most indicators, Somalia's Central Regions are experiencing a 
drought of historic proportions.  These areas also experienced a 
large influx of IDPs from Mogadishu (primarily due to clan 
affiliations) and the recent return of a significant number of these 
to Mogadishu can be explained by the poor humanitarian conditions in 
Central Regions more so than improvements in security in Mogadishu. 
As these areas have traditionally been less food insecure than 
regions in the south, fewer implementing partners have a presence to 
mount a response hampering USAID's and other donor efforts.  Ongoing 
insecurity also hampers the ability of agencies to operate. USAID's 
Office of Food for Peace (FFP) is the largest food aid donor into 
Somalia via the World Food Program (WFP) and they report a robust 
food pipeline through August 2009. USAID's Office of Foreign 
Disaster Assistance (OFDA) has prioritized Central Somalia for 
water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), nutrition, health, and 
 
NAIROBI 00000718  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
livelihood sector funding. USAID will continue to monitor 
humanitarian conditions in the region and provide ongoing support to 
implementing partners. 
 
RANNEBERGER