VZCZCXRO7304
PP RUEHAST RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHBI #0168/01 1131212
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231212Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL MUMBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7129
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 8360
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 2034
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 1825
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 2319
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MUMBAI 000168 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
USDA PASS FAS/OCRA 
STATE PASS TO USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ECON SOCI PGOV IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: CONGRESS MAY REGAIN FOOTHOLD IN VIDARBHA, 
DESPITE FARMER TROUBLES, NEGLECT, AND SUICIDES 
 
REF: MUMBAI 0153 
 
MUMBAI 00000168  001.2 OF 005 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary.  The troubled rural region of Vidarbha in 
eastern Maharashtra went to the polls on April 16, and pundits 
and pollsters agree that the Congress will regain their foothold 
in the region, at the expense of candidates from the Bharatiya 
Janata Party-Shiv Sena alliance.  Located in the dead center of 
the country, the Vidarbha region has become known for the high 
prevalence of farmer suicides, brought on by indebtedness, years 
of poor rainfall, and neglect from state and national political 
leaders.  Vidarbha's farmers are unorganized and lack political 
patrons, such as Sharad Pawar in western Maharashtra, to ensure 
that development funds and projects flow to the region. 
Congress's pro-agriculture policies may pay off, but farmers 
suffering from the failure of this year's soybean crop want more 
financial help from the national and state governments, and hold 
little hope for solutions from their elected officials.  End 
Summary. 
 
 
 
Vidarbha Goes to the Polls 
 
-------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U)  On April 16, voters went to the polls in 10 
constituencies in the eastern Maharashtra region known as 
Vidarbha.  (Note:  Voting took place in three other Maharashtra 
constituencies in the neighboring Marathwada region.  End note.) 
 With a population of 20.6 million people (2001 census), 
Vidarbha once had 11 seats, but lost one seat during the 
redistricting of constituencies that took into account 
population migration to urban centers.  The lost Lok Sabha seat 
is currently occupied by a rebel Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MP 
who was expelled from the party for supporting the UPA coalition 
during the July 2008 no-confidence vote over the implementation 
of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) The region had long been a Congress bastion, but in 
2004, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won ten of the then-total 
eleven Parliamentary seats.  The Congress-Nationalist Congress 
Party (NCP) alliance won only one seat, Nagpur, the region's 
only predominately urban seat.  (Note: This runs counter to the 
traditional view that BJP is stronger in urban areas and 
Congress's strength is in rural areas. End note.)  In the state 
assembly elections that followed in late 2004, however, the 
region voted overwhelmingly for the Congress-NCP coalition. 
Media sources reported a voter turnout rate of about 54 percent, 
a figure consistent with the 2004 election, but lower than other 
regions.  The media also speculated that this would hurt the 
Congress Party, which had hoped for a high turnout motivated by 
anti-incumbency.  (Note:  Voter turnout rates can be affected by 
many factors, including the quality of voter eligibility records 
or changes in constituency boundaries, in addition to voter 
apathy.  End Note.) 
 
 
 
Will the UPA's Farm Relief Programs Lead to Votes? 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
 
 
¶4.  (U)  Vidarbha is a poor, arid, rainfall-dependent region, 
lacking the necessary irrigation systems to supplant the 
frequent low rainfall and falling water table.  Agricultural 
experts and farmers in Vidarbha claim that the region is 
currently suffering the worst drought in a decade; the region 
received less than 700 mm of rain in 2008 as compared to an 
average annual rainfall of 1000-1200 mm.  During a visit to the 
region in late March, ConGenoff noticed that the water level of 
the rivers and wells in Vidarbha was very low.  Cotton has been 
the staple crop in the region, but more recently farmers have 
planted soybeans, a less water-intensive crop.  Only 11 percent 
 
MUMBAI 00000168  002.2 OF 005 
 
 
of Vidarbha is irrigated.  The lack of a political patron to 
help improve the agricultural infrastructure of the region has 
led many to call Vidarbha the forgotten "stepchild" of 
Maharashtra agriculture, taking a back seat to the sugar and 
wine regions that come under the patronage of National Congress 
Party leader Sharad Pawar.  Agricultural interlocutors said that 
irrigation projects in the region have not yet been implemented. 
 In any case, most admitted that only 40 percent of Vidarbha, at 
best, can be irrigated due to the regions' geographical and 
topological characteristics.  (Note:  In conversations with 
Congenoffs, agricultural experts and Maharashtra agriculture 
officials questioned the viability of agriculture in Vidarbha; 
one official said that farmers in this region would be better 
off leaving the land for jobs in other industries.  Several 
interlocutors touted the potential for solar energy generation 
in the region, as it receives the most intense sunlight.  End 
note.) 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U) Though the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance 
(UPA) government has initiated programs to aid this drought 
stricken area, it is unclear whether those efforts will convert 
into votes this election.  The UPA government enacted a farm 
debt-waiver program to alleviate the financial crunch for 
farmers, but the program did not reach many of those who needed 
it most.  (Note:  Over 7,000 farmers have committed suicide in 
Vidarbha since 2001, caused primarily by farmers' indebtedness 
due to rainfall-related crop failures.  End Note.)  Pradip 
Maitra, a journalist with the Hindustan Times in Nagpur, noted 
that 1,246 farmers committed suicide in Vidarbha in 2008 despite 
the central government relief packages, including the farm loan 
waiver program (reftel).  The government has provided loan 
waivers to 900,000 out of the 2.3 million farmers in the six 
suicide-prone districts of Vidarbha, he said.  However, 60-70 
percent of the farm loans in Vidarbha were from money lenders 
and were therefore, not covered by the farm loan waiver program. 
 He admitted that the average rate of suicides dropped to 2 per 
day from 3 per day after the announcement of the farm loan 
waiver. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U)  The Congress-led UPA government also tried to help 
farmers by raising the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for cotton by 
33-40 percent for different cotton varieties in September 2008. 
The Vidarbha cotton farmers benefited from the rise in the 
cotton MSP, especially since Maharashtra government agencies 
procured 90 percent of the cotton in the state at the revised 
MSP.  (Note:  The announcement of an MSP dictates the crop 
procurement price.  The government is then obliged to purchase 
any and all cotton from local farmers if the market price falls 
below the MSP. End Note.)  However, at a meeting with farmers in 
the Wardha district of Vidarbha, ConGenoff learned that good 
soybean yields and favorable soybean prices in 2007 prompted 
many Vidarbha farmers to shift more acreage to soybeans in 2008 
to diversify their income sources.  This resulted in reduced 
cotton cultivation before the MSP rise was announced.  The 
timing of rainfall received in 2008 was auspicious for the 
cotton crop, but it was not soon enough in the season for the 
soybean crop to benefit.  Farmers told ConGenoffs that any 
profit they made from selling cotton at the higher MSP was 
offset by losses from the failed soybean crop. 
 
 
 
Ignored by Politicians, Is Separate Statehood the Answer? 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Most agricultural experts with whom ConGenOff  spoke 
agreed that Vidarbha politicians have historically lacked the 
political will to lobby the central and state governments for 
more favorable agricultural and development policies for the 
region.  Maitra pointed out that the senior political leaders 
who contested from Nagpur, the BJP's Nitin Gadkari and Vilas 
 
MUMBAI 00000168  003.2 OF 005 
 
 
Muttemwar of the Congress Party, are more committed to "playing 
politics" in Mumbai or Delhi than doing constituency level work 
in Nagpur.  Sohan Pandharipande, editor of the pro-Congress 
Lokmat newspaper, noted that no political party has been able to 
successfully organize and lead the Vidarbha farmers.  He cited 
poor governance as the main factor for the delays in 
implementing irrigation projects.  For example, he noted that 
the Gosikhurd dam project in the Bhandara district of Vidarbha 
took 27 years to complete.  The irrigation project cost has 
escalated from USD 74 million to USD 1.5 billion due to the 
delay. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The Hindustan Times' Maitra stated that Vidarbha 
suffers from a "development backlog."  He noted that Chandrapur 
district in Vidarbha generates 3,500 MW of electricity, which is 
more than sufficient to power the district, but it still faces 8 
hours of power outages each day.  Nagpur city still suffers 
power interruptions despite having two power plants generating a 
total of 4,500 MW. The city recovers only 1,800 MW for its use, 
and the rest is distributed to other parts of Maharashtra. 
Activist Jawandhiya believes that the separation of Vidarbha 
from Maharashtra is the only solution to the region's 
development problems.  With separate statehood, he claimed, 
resources would remain within Vidarbha, and funds would be 
allocated solely for the development of the region and would not 
be diverted to other areas of Maharashtra with stronger 
political leadership and greater political patronage, he said. 
 
 
 
Pundits and Polls Favor Congress to Pick up Seats 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  While polling in India is notoriously fickle, 
observers and pollsters are predicting gains for the Congress, 
despite reports of lower voter turnout.  According to the BJP 
National Treasurer, Piyush Goyal, an internal BJP exit poll 
shows that the Congress will likely pick up at least 3-4 seats 
in the Vidharba region.  He admitted that the 2004 BJP-Shiv Sena 
sweep came as a surprise to the BJP, and they "can only lose 
seats in the region" in this election.  Maitra agreed, and 
projected that the Congress may improve its position by two to 
three seats in Vidarbha, close to the findings of the BJP exit 
polling.  Jawandhiya, who helped plan the Prime Minister's visit 
to Vidarbha in 2006, concurred that the Congress Party would 
gain in the region.  Similarly, the editor of the pro-Congress 
paper Lokmat, Pandharipande, believes that the Congress likely 
picked up many seats in the region.  He stated that the 
influence of main opposition BJP was waning throughout the 
country, and the party would lose seats in Vidarbha as well as 
the nation as a whole. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Vivek Deshpande, a journalist for the Indian Express 
based in Nagpur, told ConGenoff that this election will be just 
as unpredictable as the election five years ago.  He explained 
that most rural Vidarbha voters told him that they would vote 
for the Congress Party in the 2004 national elections, but to 
his surprise, Shiv Sena won four and the BJP won six seats from 
the region.  He also noted that while the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance 
captured all but one seat during the 2004 national election, the 
coalition lost half of the seats during the Maharashtra state 
assembly election held barely five months later. 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU)  Jawandhiya opined that while Uddhav Thackery, the 
general secretary of Shiv Sena, came to the region several 
times, his party could not translate these successful rallies 
into votes.  Pandharipande predicted that the Shiv Sena would 
hang onto its seats in Vidarbha, as Raj Thackery's Maharashtra 
Navnirman Sena (MNS) does not have any influence in the region 
 
MUMBAI 00000168  004.2 OF 005 
 
 
and would not pull many votes away from the Shiv Sena. 
Neglected Marathi-speaking farmers might feel inclined to vote 
for the Shiv Sena, he acknowledged.  (Note:  Vidarbha also has a 
large Hindi-speaking minority.  End Note.) 
 
 
 
BSP a Spoiler for Both Congress and BJP? 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) Assessing caste politics in the region, Jawandhiya 
expected that Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) would not win 
any seats, but would draw crucial votes away from the Congress, 
as it did in 2004.  Jawandhiya and Maitra both cautioned, 
though, that BSP stood to damage the BJP where both parties 
fielded candidates from the same caste.  (Note:  Political 
parties try to field candidates belonging to the 
numerically-dominant caste in each constituency.  The BSP, 
therefore, may have eaten into the BJP's vote bank where their 
candidates were of the same caste as the BJP candidate in the 
same constituency.  End Note.)  According to Pandharipande, 
Mayawati's BSP peaked in 2004 in Maharashtra, and its vote share 
would decline in this election, with the Congress picking up its 
former voters. 
 
 
 
What Do Voters in Vidarbha Care About? 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶13.  (SBU) With a panoply of regional issues and problems, what 
motivates the Vidarbha voter?  A group of farmers in the Wardha 
district in Vidarbha told Congenoff that they did not expect 
much from the Lok Sabha elections, felt disconnected from 
politicians, and did not vote based on government policies. 
Nevertheless, the farmers admitted to Congenoffs that the UPA 
government's loan waiver and the relief packages for the 
Vidarbha farmers have helped ease their distress.  They said 
that they would have enjoyed a successful year if last year's 
rainfall had been normal.  When pressed to explain what they 
wanted from the government, some asked for another loan waiver, 
as soon as next year.  Other farmers said that further increases 
in the MSP for cotton would also help.  Jawandhiya called for 
government subsidies for non-irrigated farming, especially given 
the unpredictability of rainfall.  He believes that these 
subsidies will help narrow the rural-urban divide, and also 
bridge the gap between the rich sugarcane farmers of western 
Maharashtra and the poor cotton farmers of Vidarbha.  Most 
farmers Congenoffs spoke to wished that the government would 
simply purchase their land and pay them an annual stipend. 
 
 
 
¶14. (SBU) Pandharipande described the national election as an 
"issueless" election.  In any case, Pandharipande claimed that 
rural voters do not vote based on policies, platforms, or, even, 
performance.  He asserted that caste and sometimes financial or 
alcoholic inducements are enough to sway rural voters.  Although 
the number of farmer suicides fell after the UPA's relief 
packages and farm loan waiver program, Maitra noted that farmer 
suicides is an ongoing problem and no political party made it an 
issue in the election.  Maitra added that voters in the eastern 
Maharashtra region were disgusted with politicians generally and 
felt neglected.  He claimed that most farmers were not even 
aware of government policies and as little as one liter of 
alcohol or two kilograms of rice was enough to sway their vote. 
 
 
 
 
Comment: 
 
 
MUMBAI 00000168  005.2 OF 005 
 
 
-------- 
 
 
 
¶15.  (SBU)  While the Congress-led UPA coalition has introduced 
rural development programs to alleviate the problems of farmers 
in Vidarbha, the results have been mixed.  Years of neglect from 
the state government - also a Congress-led coalition - have 
compounded the region's problems.  While the region gave its 
vote to the BJP/Shiv Sena alliance in the last election, it 
appears to have made little impact in the way the region is 
governed.  While discerning the motivations of the Indian voter 
is always elusive, political observers and farmers acknowledge a 
strong strain of ambivalence toward politicians in voter 
attitudes.  As a result, it appears that caste-based identity 
politics and inducements work in these areas more than 
issue-politics because rural voters often expect so little from 
their political leaders.  The confusing and somewhat 
contradictory responses given by a group of farmers is a 
reminder that voting attitudes are extremely hard to pin down, 
and that many voters may ultimately decide whom to vote for a 
day or two before election day; it may also explain why 
political polling in India is so often wrong.  Nevertheless, 
pundits and pollsters seem to agree that whatever the strange 
mix of motivations and sentiments, the Congress will come out 
ahead in this troubled region.  End Comment. 
FOLMSBEE