VZCZCXRO0159
PP RUEHAST RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHBI #0147/01 0960715
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 060715Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL MUMBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7084
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 8313
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 2026
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 2271
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 1817

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MUMBAI 000147 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SMIG IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: THREE YEARS ON, RAJ THACKERAY'S PARTY 
STANDS NO CHANCE IN ITS FIRST LOK SABHA ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. MUMBAI 130 
     ¶B. MUMBAI 139 
     ¶C. 2008 MUMBAI 515, 513, AND 505 
     ¶D. 2008 MUMBAI 52 AND PREVIOUS 
 
MUMBAI 00000147  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Founded in 2006 after a family succession 
dispute within the Hindu nationalist Shiv Sena party, the 
charismatic Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has 
made a colorful and troublesome appearance on the local 
political scene.  After a disappointing first foray into local 
politics, Raj turned to the time-tested Sena practice of violent 
attacks on outsiders, in this case laborers and migrants from 
north India, especially the poor states of Bihar and Uttar 
Pradesh.  This campaign struck a chord among Marathi-speakers, 
and catapulted Raj and his party to the forefront of a national 
political controversy.  The MNS had hoped to use these campaigns 
to attract the huge demographic of young and new voters.  These 
expectations are likely to be disappointed in this election 
cycle, but efforts now will lay the groundwork for more 
realistic races in the state assembly elections which follow. 
The MNS will likely steal votes from the Sena, and could play 
the role of spoiler in several races.  End summary. 
 
 
 
MNS:  A Break with the Sena? 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) In March 2006, Raj Thackeray launched his new party, the 
MNS, after a well-publicized, acrimonious split with the party 
founded by his uncle Bal Thackeray, the Shiv Sena (reftel B). 
Raj was well-known in Sena circles as a hard-knuckled street 
fighter in the Sena style; he was also charismatic and inspiring 
in a way that reminded the Sena cadres of Bal.  While many Sena 
activists hoped that Raj would take over the party after Bal's 
death or retirement, Bal chose his son Uddhav, a more retiring 
and reserved political figure.  At a well-attended rally to 
launch his party in Shivaji Park, Mumbai's venerable political 
grounds, Raj sought to emphasize that his break with the Shiv 
Sena was a break with the Sena's ways, too.  In its initial 
public posture, the party aimed to be more inclusive, and to 
welcome supporters from different castes, religions, languages, 
and age groups.  Even the new MNS flag featured the three colors 
of the state's major political groupings:  blue, representing 
Dalits; green, representing Muslims; and saffron, representing 
Hindus.  Speaking at that rally, Raj pledged that MNS workers 
would protect women commuters on local trains, serve as a 
back-up cadre for the overworked police force, and provide 
safety to senior citizens, electricity to farmers, and jobs to 
the youth.  In short, he promised that the party would focus on 
"navnirman," or rebuilding.  His appeal as a leader was clear, 
and media coverage was wide as well as favorable. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Over the next two years, the MNS struggled to gain 
traction in the state's highly competitive politics.  The 
party's first foray, the February 2007 Mumbai municipal 
elections, was disappointing.  His party won only seven seats 
(out of 227) in Mumbai and a few in the key provincial city 
corporations of Thane (3), Nashik (12) and Pune (8).  He failed 
to lure many supporters away from the Sena, and his still-thin 
leadership cadre and lack of solid party organization were 
apparent during the campaign.  Many voters viewed his party as a 
personality cult devoid of significant ideological substance. 
Nor could it deliver the political jobs and resources that 
voters expect from their political involvement.  Nitin Sardesai, 
the party's General Secretary, put a brave face on these 
results, reminding Congenoff that the MNS came in third place in 
these cities after only ten months of existence, something it 
takes many parties 20 years to accomplish.  Overall, the MNS 
remains an essentially urban phenomenon, its appeal limited to 
the four largest cities of Maharashtra. 
 
 
 
MNS Steals Thunder from Shiv Sena 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Two years after its founding, with the MNS struggling 
to be noticed, Raj Thackeray returned to the political forefront 
 
MUMBAI 00000147  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
for very different reasons.  In February 2008, Raj made a 
well-publicized, controversial speech denouncing the influx of 
laborers and migrants from north India, especially the states of 
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.  (Note:  Maharashtra's economy leads 
most other states in India, and Mumbai has long been a magnet 
for in-migration from poorer states and regions.  End note.) 
Subsequently, clashes between MNS supporters and local activists 
from the Samajwadi Party (SP), a regional party from Uttar 
Pradesh that has tried to expand to some other parts of the 
country, led to street violence.  Raj also criticized 
Bollywood's most celebrated film actor, Amitabh Bachchan, a 
native of Uttar Pradesh, for defending the presence of laborers 
and migrants from north India.  These remarks, and Raj's 
subsequent brief arrest, prompted more outbreaks of violence 
against north Indian vendors and shopkeepers by MNS workers in 
Mumbai and other urban areas.  (see reftel C and D)  Fearing 
more violence, anecdotal evidence indicates that thousands of 
migrants left Tier II cities such as Pune and Nashik, leaving 
huge labor shortages in their wake.  Locals report that MNS 
workers demanded that companies hire Marathi workers at a higher 
cost, taking a cut along the way to help fund the party. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) In August 2008, Raj revived the old Shiv Sena campaign 
demanding Marathi signboards for commercial establishments in 
Mumbai.  In October 2008, MNS activists attacked 13 Railway 
Recruitment Board examination centers in suburban Mumbai and 
Thane, disrupting the exams and protesting "inadequate" 
representation of Maharashtrians among the candidates.  The 
Maharashtra Police again arrested Raj in October, and he was 
again released on bail.  In the midst of the November 2008 
terrorist attacks, the MNS drew ridicule when Raj's wife, 
Sharmila Thackeray, sent a mass short message service (SMS) 
which read, "All those who had lost their lives while saving 
this city are Marathis.  MNS workers are busy donating blood, 
helping police for rescue operations and lifting bodies."  In 
fact, Raj and the MNS were mostly invisible throughout the 
crisis.  Another SMS, widely circulated among north Indians, 
read, "Where is Raj Thackeray and his brave Sena?  Tell him that 
commandos from Delhi have been sent to Mumbai to fight the 
terrorists so that (Thackeray) can sleep peacefully." 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) While these political tactics were condemned by 
political observers in Mumbai and elsewhere in India, Raj's 
statements struck a chord among the Marathi-speaking communities 
in urban areas, especially where large numbers of north Indians 
had arrived to take jobs in the booming construction, 
transportation, and service industries.  Raj's campaign 
impressed observers as a canny way to take the Marathi-pride 
issue from the Sena, who was at that time hoping to make inroads 
into the north Indian population to expand its vote bank.  Many 
observers believed that Raj's campaign was covertly supported by 
the Congress, who hoped to diminish the Sena's influence and 
split its vote bank.  This widely-believed assumption was 
supported by the ruling Congress/National Congress Party (NCP) 
coalition's "soft" approach to Raj's outbursts and violence from 
his workers. 
 
 
 
Will the Real MNS Please Stand Up? 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) MNS leaders acknowledge that street violence and 
theater is a faster way to build a new, energetic political base 
than the lofty language used at the party's launching. 
Sardesai, the MNS general secretary, maintains that the party's 
biggest following is among boys and girls between the ages of 15 
and 35 who have lost faith in traditional political leaders. 
With 65 percent of India's future voters projected to be between 
18 and 35, Sardesai sees the MNS's future in this demographic. 
According to Sardesai, many Indian politicians in their 70s and 
80s still talk about the pre-Independence era, which to this 
demographic is shrouded in the "mists of history."  In contrast, 
at a youthful 40 years old, Raj Thackeray focuses on issues dear 
to younger voters, such as development and unemployment. 
Sardesai claimed that youth in Maharashtra saw Raj as the only 
one who understood their problems.  When pressed to enunciate 
MNS's development program, Sardesai said the party had experts 
working on a blueprint that he expected the MNS to roll out 
 
MUMBAI 00000147  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
sometime before the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly elections 
in the fall of 2009.  (Note:  Raj Thackeray promised the same 
blueprint at the inaugural MNS rally in 2006.  End Note.) 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In explaining the party's use of violent, street 
politics, Sardesai insisted that the MNS has been 
"misunderstood."  The party has never spoken ill of northerners, 
he claimed; rather, it has only asked that they respect the 
culture and language of Maharashtra.  Mumbai is already 
overcrowded, and its creaking infrastructure is hard-pressed to 
handle migrants from underdeveloped states like Bihar and Uttar 
Pradesh, who do not pay for utilities like water and 
electricity, he said.  With no record of migrants' names and 
places of origin, Sardesai claimed migration was becoming a 
"breeding ground for terrorism."  Sardesai also drew 
distinctions between the Shiv Sena and the MNS.  While the Sena 
is closely associated with Hindutva (Hindu nationalism), the MNS 
does not believe in religion or caste, he added. 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) According to Gaikwad, some politically active youth 
are gravitating to Raj Thackeray and the MNS, a development that 
worries all four established parties in the state.  Unlike the 
four big parties and their ossified structures, the MNS has no 
establishment or hierarchy, so that young workers can take on 
important roles quickly.  The Shiv Sena District President in 
Raigad province told Congenoffs that many younger people have 
joined the MNS rather than the Shiv Sena, with the hope that 
should the two parties come together again in the future, these 
activists would be in a higher position than had they stayed 
with the Sena.  Political commentators have also written that 
the MNS has opened up space for an ambitious, vast political 
class who could not find entry elsewhere.  As the Hindustan 
Times wrote at the time of Raj's first arrest in February 2008, 
"Youth likes aggressive leaders, and he is one."  In the context 
of the MNS strategy to attract young voters, then, MNS's strong 
arm antics of 2008 make sense:  they help recruit cadres. 
 
 
 
A Look at the Now, and the Future, Also 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The MNS plans to contest nine seats in Maharashtra 
for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, six in Mumbai and one each in 
Thane, Nashik and Pune.  Political observers agreed that the 
MNS's political chances are slim, and it will not likely be 
competitive in any of these races.  Maharashtra Times Metro 
Editor Sachin Parab did allow that while Raj Thackeray's 
charisma, name recognition and media savvy are beyond repute, he 
has largely neglected organization work.  The MNS has no social 
base; one cannot identify any one group that is with the party. 
As Parab pointed out, the Shiv Sena had a higher profile image 
when it started out in the late 1960s, yet it took a long time 
for it to break out beyond its Mumbai base. 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) However, the MNS's objectives for the current national 
elections appear limited.  As journalist Nilu Damle told 
Congenoff, Raj has little to lose in the Lok Sabha polls and is 
using them only to position himself for an influential role in 
the state elections later this year.  Damle said Raj's primary 
strength is his ability to present himself as a fresh 
alternative to the BJP/Shiv Sena and Congress/NCP coalitions 
that have traditionally vied for power in Maharashtra.  Congress 
state assembly member Varsha Gaikwad told Congenoffs that the 
MNS will only cause discomfort to the Shiv Sena and its alliance 
partner, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in two of the Mumbai 
constituencies.  Even Sardesai conceded that the MNS's objective 
for the Lok Sabha elections was simply to "make our presence 
felt."  Bharat Raut, a Shiv Sena Member of Parliament's upper 
house, said that the MNS has the ability to be a Sena spoiler in 
five urban seats, but has little chance of winning a seat.  The 
Sena has had difficulty marginalizing the MNS, Raut admitted. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
 
MUMBAI 00000147  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The MNS, now a household name due to its 
well-publicized tactics, will not be a major factor in the 
upcoming Lok Sabha elections.  MNS does appear to be steeling 
itself for a fight in the state assembly elections, however, 
where it might gain some seats and prove more of a spoiler to 
Shiv Sena and BJP candidates.  With the ailing 83-year-old Bal 
Thackeray in the background, it is unclear whether the split in 
the Thackeray clan is final.  Once Bal dies, Raj could lead a 
fight to take back the Sena's leadership from Uddhav, possibly 
with the support of the majority of the party's workers. 
Whichever scenario comes to pass, the Sena supremo's passing 
will leave a vacuum in Maharashtra politics, one the MNS and Raj 
Thackeray intends to fill.  End Comment. 
FOLMSBEE