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DE RUEHSK #0136/01 1191214
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 291214Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0240
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK 0244

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000136 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS: SERIOUS DISCORD WITHIN UNITED DEMOCRATIC FORCES 
 
REF: A) MINSK 132, B) VILNIUS 228, C) MINSK 133 
 
MINSK 00000136  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The leader of a major opposition party has ignited 
controversy through an April 17 interview with Belarus' 
state-owned newspaper.  In the interview, Belarusian 
Social-Democratic Party Gramada (BSDP-G) chair Levkovich 
generously complimented President Lukashenka and condemned 
fellow democratic politicians for their overly critical stance 
of the current regime.  In response, United Democratic Forces 
(UDF) co-chairs temporarily banned Levkovich from making any 
statements on behalf of the group.  Observers note that the 
regime has been singling out what it calls "constructive" or 
"sensible" pro-democratic activists to weaken and split them 
from their colleagues, thereby proving the weakness and lack of 
relevance of the democratic opposition.  End summary. 
 
UDF Leader Calls for Cooperation with Regime 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.   (U) The Presidential Administration-controlled daily 
newspaper Sovetskaya Belarus/Belarus Segodnya published a widely 
read interview April 17 with Chairperson of the Belarusian 
Social-Democratic Party Gramada (BSDP-G) Anatoliy Levkovich. 
Its publication has raised heated debates in opposition circles 
and divided the United Democratic Forces (UDF).  In the 
extensive interview, Levkovich stated that the democrats failed 
to hold a "revolution" because "other groups" fostered changes 
in 1994 (when Lukashenka was first elected).  Saying that the 
"opposition should cooperate with the political system and not 
throw sand in its wheels," he described opposition tactics as 
contraproductive and aimed only at thwarting an established 
"model of social development elaborated by Lukashenka and his 
peers".   Furthermore, Levkovich criticized "defiant opposition" 
to Lukashenka who, as he claims, "was elected and is being 
supported by the majority of the nation" and complained bitterly 
that "the democrats were thus fighting their own people". 
Levkovich also suggested that his party would be "persistently 
looking for points of contact with the political leadership" to 
jointly pursue a path for the BSDP-G "to become a full-fledged 
member of the systematic political process".   He stressed that 
Lukashenka was "a spontaneous social democrat" and that the 
BSDP-G would be "cooperating with the authorities and supporting 
their pragmatic policies".  Levkovich concluded that 
stability-oriented political forces had always enjoyed more 
popularity in Belarus than the groups that "undermine" the 
political situation. 
 
"An Egregious Political Mistake" 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) UDF Co-Chairs slammed Levkovich for voicing dissenting 
political statements.  At their April 22 meeting, the UDF 
unanimously voted to temporarily restrict Levkovich's authority 
to act and speak on behalf of the UDF.  Belarusian Popular Front 
Deputy Chairperson Vintsuk Vyachorka called the interview "an 
egregious political mistake" and vehemently criticized Levkovich 
over his condemnation of the democratic movement for opposing to 
the current regime.  United Civic Party Chairperson Anatol 
Lyabedzka echoed Vyachorka's remarks, stating that Levkovich 
"had neither moral nor political rights" to represent the UDF or 
to make "unacceptable" statements that run counter to the 
previously endorsed official policies the UDF adopted jointly. 
For Freedom Movement deputy head Viktar Karniyenka pointed to 
Levkovich's "inconsistency" and expressed serious concerns over 
his "readiness to praise the regime on any favorable occasion". 
Other prominent political leaders denounced the interview as 
"outrageous" and demonstrating blatant political "loyalty" to 
Lukashenka. 
 
All About Getting the Word Out 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (U) Levkovich flatly dismissed all accusations against him, 
saying that he never contested UDF's major principles and only 
referred to "the sovereignty and independence of Belarus and 
democratization of society".  He opined that the democrats were 
free to "express personal opinions" and argued that he the broad 
circulation of Belarus Segodnya [500,000 copies] helped to 
expand his audience better than publication of the same remarks 
in an independent paper such as Narodnaya Volya [circulation 
20,500 copies].  Levkovich's Deputy Igor Maslovskiy told us that 
he did not expect the BSDP-G "to take any radical measures" with 
regard to Levkovich's standing as chair; however, he noted that 
their critical observations "were conveyed" directly to 
Levkovich.  BSDP-G Secretary General Mecheslav Grib urged the 
UDF "to take the matters calmly and reasonably".  Former BSDP-G 
chair Alyaksandr Kazulin, turfed out of the party leadership by 
Levkovich just before Kazulin's release as a political prisoner 
in August 2008, has not commented to date publicly but can be 
expected to be highly critical of Levkovich's approach. 
 
MINSK 00000136  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The interview with Levkovich was the first with any 
UDF leader to appear in Belarus Segodnya, although we have seen 
for some time that the GOB has wanted to highlight any 
difference of opinion that would undermine the unity of the 
democratic opposition: Lukashenka's praise of Milinkevich in his 
annual address (ref A) is a further example.  Levkovich had 
played a useful role as the coordinator of the UDF's joint 
candidate list for the September 2008 parliamentary elections, 
but his machinations against Kazulin lost him a lot of 
credibility and support.  Separately, although as yet 
unregistered by the GOB, the Belarusian Christian Democracy 
Party (BCDP) is rumored to be finding a way to work more closely 
with the regime on that theory that "sovereignty is more 
important than democracy": comments made by BCDP co-chair Vital 
Rymasheuski to a visiting CODEL in Vilnius (ref B) suggest that 
party is thinking about other accommodations as well.   The 
commitment of most democratic activists to Euro-Atlantic values 
remains strong; they also cannot be faulted for their lack of 
access to the Belarusian people.  However, combined with very 
recent evidence that the democratic forces are failing to 
coordinate even the most basic, popular public events (ref C), 
there is growing concern about their continued viability and 
every reason to suspect that the key democratic parties will not 
succeed in nominating a unified candidate to oppose Lukashenka 
in the presidential elections expected in 2010 or 2011.  The 
appearance of multiple candidates will all but assure Lukashenka 
of getting re-elected even if voting procedures are markedly 
improved. 
MOORE