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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0711
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 0315
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH AFB UK
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 LAGOS 000191 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS NSC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM EPET ECON KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: LEADING NIGER DELTA ACTIVIST BRIEFS 
AMBASSADOR ON HIS VISION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGER DELTA 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 601 
     ¶B. ABUJA 493 
     ¶C. ABUJA 310 
     ¶D. LAGOS 074 
     ¶E. LAGOS 014 
     ¶F. 08 LAGOS 509 
     ¶G. 08 ABUJA 1989 
     ¶H. 08 ABUJA 1951 
     ¶I. 08 ABUJA 1952 
 
Classified By: Acting Consul General Helen C. Hudson for Reasons 1.4 (B 
,D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Patrick Utomi, Director of the Center for 
Applied Economics at the Lagos Business School (LBS) and 2007 
presidential candidate of the African Democratic Party (ADP), 
and originally from Delta State, told Ambassador, while she 
was in Lagos on March 23, that he is working, as Chair of the 
United Niger Delta Energy, Development, Security Strategy 
(UNDEDSS) group and Chair of the South-South Economic Summit 
to resolve the Niger Delta crisis.  He said former Cross 
River State Governor Donald Duke met with President Yar'Adua 
to gauge his response to a proposed UNDEDSS plan of 
disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) and 
amnesty for Niger Delta militants (Note: In Nigeria, the term 
"militant" is applied to most armed groups in the Niger 
Delta, whether they are politically motivated or not.  While 
many such groups were formed by corrupt politicians to 
intimidate their rivals, most now have no political agenda. 
End Note); the President was "OK with it", and suggested a 
follow on meeting, but he may change his mind as others 
weighed in, Utomi implied.  The South-South Economic Summit, 
to be held in Tinapa, Cross River State on April 22-25, will 
focus on issues that bear on economic growth and integration 
of the region, including how best to support agriculture in 
the region; how to link the South-South states by rail and 
road to a South-South deepwater port; how best to create 
employment through local content, with emphasis on the Brazil 
model; and how best to encourage the installation of gas 
gathering infrastructure as a way to promote the development 
of that industry. International experts, including U.S. 
Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, have been invited to 
advise the Governors on policies, Utomi told Pol-Econ Chief 
in conversations February 6 and March 17. 
 
¶2.  (C) Utomi sees the Gulf of Guinea Energy Security 
Strategy (GGESS) as a viable framework for engaging 
international partners on the Niger Delta, although he 
believes it does not place sufficient emphasis on 
development. He thinks the Ministry of the Niger Delta would 
be the best government entity to house the GGESS mechanism, 
and that Minister for the Niger Delta Ufot Ekaette's 
experience is sufficiently deep and broad to allow him to 
drive GGESS, if he can be persuaded to take ownership of it. 
In reply, the Ambassador told Utomi that, without a political 
framework, development will not take place, and it will be 
difficult for the United States and other development 
partners to know where to be supportive. Ambassador stressed 
that the U.S. would not be out in front on Niger Delta 
issues, noted that we had also provided to the GON and the 
new Niger Delta Minister ways that we can be supportive since 
July 2008.  (In conversations with Utomi is well placed to 
act as an honest broker of the Niger Delta crisis, and has 
taken some first steps, identifying positions on key issues 
and building coalitions toward that end.  Nonetheless, he 
faces an uphill battle against the powerful kleptocrats in 
government and elsewhere who benefit directly from the 
turmoil that cloaks theft of oil and scandalous failures of 
development in the Niger Delta.  End Summary. 
 
¶3. (C) Ambassador met March 23 in Lagos with Patrick Utomi, 
Director of the Center for Applied Economics, Lagos Business 
School and 2007 presidential candidate of the African 
Democratic Party.  Ambassador noted that the U.S. Government 
cannot be out in front on the issue of the Niger Delta but 
that the United States wants to be supportive of efforts to 
resolve the challenges in the region and has offered a number 
of things in this regard since last July. She invited Utomi's 
views on the Niger Delta situation, including prospects for 
disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), amnesty 
 
LAGOS 00000191  002 OF 005 
 
 
and economic development. 
 
¶4. (C) Utomi replied that his focus is national and his goal 
to move Nigeria in the right direction; resolving the Niger 
Delta crisis is an essential element of that overall plan. 
Utomi chairs the United Niger Delta Energy, Development, 
Security Strategy (UNDEDSS) group which brings together the 
diverse Niger Delta ethnic and civil society groups to 
influence policy.  He believes that the young men of the 
Niger Delta are exploited by criminal elements who profit 
from their situation.  Utomi is seeking consensus, in the 
interests of global energy security, that the Niger Delta 
crisis should be solved, so that these young men can reenter 
society, which would leave the Nigerian Government free to 
move against remaining purely criminal elements. (Note: On 
March 17, in a meeting with Pol-Econ Chief, Utomi said that 
there is a need to take action while the current governors 
are "slightly less involved" in supporting armed youths than 
were their predecessors, and before the looming 2011 
elections are in full swing.  End Note) 
 
¶5. (C) Utomi works with a small group of Niger Delta 
businessmen, including former Cross Rivers Governor Donald 
Duke; Albert Okunaba, Managing Director of the BGL stock 
brokerage firm; Tony Nyam, the former Lieutenant Colonel who 
was involved in a coup against former military President 
Ibrahim Badamosa Babangida (IBB), and Tony Uranta (Ref E, 
Septel.)  Duke met March 19 with the President to share the 
outlines of a proposed disarmament and rehabilitation plan 
and to get his initial reaction.  The President "was OK with 
the proposal," Utomi said, and suggested a follow-on meeting 
this week or next with a larger group.  However, Utomi 
cautioned, the President virtually always agrees to new 
proposals in an initial meeting, then changes his mind as 
others weigh in.  In addition, Utomi met last week with the 
Minister of the Niger Delta, who said he wants to reduce the 
vulnerability of the people of the Niger Delta through 
economic development.  The Minister told Utomi that he is 
considering creating short-term employment opportunities, 
including as guards in public institutions, for youths who 
have given up militancy or who never took up arms.  In the 
medium and long term, vocational training programs will be 
needed to provide youths with skills suitable for employment 
in the oil and other sectors.  Utomi is in close contact with 
the Minister of State for the Niger Delta as well. 
 
¶6. (C) In addition, the Governors of the South-South states 
have appointed Utomi Chairman of a commission to promote the 
economic integration of the South-South states. (Ref F)  To 
achieve the goal of economic integration of the region, an 
Economic Summit is planned for April 22-25 in the Tinapa 
complex of Cross River State.  Invited to the summit will be 
experts who can advise on policies, including on vocational 
education and governance issues.  The Minister for the Niger 
Delta will attend the summit, as will the Vice President. 
(Note: In meetings with Pol-Econ Chief on March 17 and 
February 6, Utomi said that the Summit would also focus on 
what policies will foster development of agriculture in the 
region, on local content as a way to create employment, with 
emphasis on the Brazil model; on how best to encourage the 
installation of gas gathering infrastructure as a way to 
promote the development of that industry; and how to link the 
South-South states by rail and road to a South-South 
deepwater port; following the summit, the Governors will work 
to promote those policies. End Note) 
 
Outside the Delta, No Urgency to Solve Crisis 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Outside of the Niger Delta itself, Utomi perceives no 
urgency to solve the problem, mainly because people profit 
from the crisis.  To try to overcome this selfishness and 
bureaucratic inertia, Utomi has engaged a number of persons 
who have influence with the President as a way to stimulate 
new thinking about the issue.  Among those Utomi has met with 
are M.D. Yusuf, former Inspector General of Police who is 
close to the President; Bamanga Tukur, formerly President of 
the African Business Roundtable and Chairman of the Nigerian 
Ports Authority, and others. 
 
 
LAGOS 00000191  003 OF 005 
 
 
¶8. (C) Ambassador told Utomi that, in a recent meeting she 
had with the Minister of the Niger Delta, Ufot Ekaette, he 
had proposed an international donor's conference as a way 
forward on the Niger Delta. (Ref B) However, the Ambassador 
questioned the creation of a new framework when the Gulf of 
Guinea Energy Security Strategy (GGESS) already provides a 
viable forum in which all stakeholders participate.  Although 
the Minister was initially unfamiliar with details of the 
GGESS process, he has since been provided with the background 
including the minutes of the last GGESS meeting in Abuja in 
March 2008.  In the same meeting, Ekaette noted that an 
interministerial meeting would be held March 30 to determine 
which Ministry should take over administration of the GGESS 
process from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. 
Utomi sees GGESS as viable, although in his view, it does not 
place sufficient emphasis on development, one of the reasons 
UNDEDSS was founded.  Fragmentation of leadership in the 
energy sector between Lukman, Egbogah and Ajumogobia (Note: 
Minister for Petroleum Resources, Special Advisor to the 
President on Petroleum Matters and Minister of State for 
Petroleum Resources, respectively) makes the oil-related 
ministries an unsuitable home for the process.  Hopefully, 
Utomi said, GGESS will land in the Ministry of the Niger 
Delta, where the Minister, Ufot Ekaette, has the depth and 
breadth to guide the process, if he can be persuaded to take 
ownership of it.  Ambassador suggested that the Economic 
Summit in Tinapa might present a good opportunity to 
emphasize that the GGESS framework exists. 
 
What Political Framework for a Niger Delta Solution? 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶9. (C) Asked what type of political framework he envisioned 
for a solution to the Niger Delta crisis, Utomi responded 
that he believes once real prospects for development are 
offered, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) 
will be possible.  There will have to be some incentive to 
persuade militants to turn in their guns, Utomi said, but 
that incentive need not be money.  Once the arms are mopped 
up, and militants are in training camps to learn new skills, 
the police can go in and clean out the remaining criminal 
elements.  The youths in the creeks will abandon the struggle 
in favor of development, Utomi said, and will sign a 
cessation of conflict agreement. (Note:  Utomi, who spoke at 
the February 16 Yenagoa conference at which the Ijaw Youth 
Council "took back the Niger Delta struggle" from criminals 
by issuing a pledge to "close the camps" within 90 days (Ref 
D), told Pol-Econ Chief February 17 that the youths trust him 
because they know nothing he does will be for his personal 
gain.  End Note)  Amnesty is necessary because there are key 
militants who fear prosecution, especially in light of Henry 
Okah's secret trial, Utomi said.  For example, Ateke Tom has 
pledged to sign a peace accord on the condition he is granted 
amnesty.  However, the Federal Government has not reacted to 
the amnesty proposal, Utomi said.  (Note:  The President 
mentioned amnesty publicly as an option if groups willingly 
lay down arms in a People's Democratic Party (PDP) national 
meeting April 6, Ref A. End Note) When Duke presented the 
issue of amnesty to the President as part of the overall 
proposal, he agreed, but in the larger meeting it is not 
clear what the President will do, Utomi warned. 
 
¶10. (C) In response, the Ambassador told Utomi that, without 
a political framework that has the support of stakeholders, 
it will be difficult for the United States and other 
development partners to know where to be supportive. 
Development will not take place without security, and as a 
result, a political settlement must be reached first.  The 
U.S. Government has made a number of offers, outlined in the 
Framework for Partnership book, to the Government of Nigeria 
on security.  At the same time, the United States is working 
on development projects in the Niger Delta; the projects are 
conducted through implementing local partners and are small 
in scale so as not to become a target.  The Ambassador 
expressed the hope that, once GGESS is assigned to a 
Ministry, the Minister will engage through GGESS on DDR and 
amnesty, so that the partners have details.  She also 
expressed the hope that the Nigerian Government will reach 
out to entities, such as the International Organization for 
Migration (IOM), which have experience in DDR, so that the 
 
LAGOS 00000191  004 OF 005 
 
 
sequencing of elements of any DDR plan, crucial to its 
success, are correct. 
 
April 22-25 Economic Summit 
--------------------------- 
 
¶11. (U) Utomi asked Ambassador if she would be able to attend 
the Summit.  Utomi envisions a private session, with no 
press, which all the governors would attend.  Utomi has 
invited Richard Joseph, who is John Evans Professor of 
Political Science at Northwestern University, to attend and 
to talk about his ideas. (Note:  Utomi has also invited U.S. 
Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack to attend the 
conference. End Note) The Ambassador replied that it is 
unlikely she would be able to attend, as this conference 
conflicts with a US-ECOWAS event for the Africom Center for 
Strategic Studies.  In addition, she noted, expectations 
would be high that her presence would signal the imminent 
arrival of U.S. investors in the South-South states. 
However, there is no enabling security environment in most 
states, and money will not flow to an insecure environment, 
she said.  Equally importantly, on top of the fragile 
security environment, many of the states do not respect the 
sanctity of contracts; U.S. investors' experiences in Akwa 
Ibom and other states make it hard for development partners 
to encourage their companies to come in.  Akwa Ibom is now as 
difficult to travel in as the three conflict-prone Niger 
Delta states, and as a result, she would not have a positive 
story to tell at the Summit.  Utomi said that the 
Ambassador's remarks are just what he is hoping she would say 
at the summit; he is looking for reinforcement for what he 
has been telling the governors. 
 
PDP Does Not Want Electoral Reform 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C) The Ambassador then turned the conversation to 
national politics and the 2100 elections.  The Federal 
Government doesn't want electoral reform, Utomi said; the 
ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) doesn't think it could 
win a real election in 2011 and will need again to manipulate 
the process, so they are planning to delay reforms until 
after 2011.  Events in Madagascar and other countries make 
them nervous as well.  As a result, it was a recent statement 
of Utomi's that "every taxpaying adult wants the National 
Judicial Council to appoint the chair of the Independent 
Nigerian Election Commission (INEC)" that elicited a warning 
from the PDP that "people are attempting to destabilize the 
government via nocturnal meetings," Utomi claimed.  Utomi 
said he based his remarks on survey research conducted by Joe 
Trippi and Associates in Washington D.C. that showed that 89 
percent of Nigerians polled wanted INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu 
replaced.  Utomi doesn't think shifting authority to appoint 
the INEC chair from the executive to the judicial branch of 
government requires a constitutional amendment, just 
legislation by the National Assembly. (Comment: We believe 
Utomi is not correct about this; clause 154 of the Nigerian 
constitution clearly gives the President the power to appoint 
the INEC Chair.  End Comment.)  Even just replacing Iwu would 
be helpful, he said.  Asked what grade he would put on the 
Yar'Adua administration's report card, Utomi responded 
"Awful."  Asked if the country is ripe for a coup, Utomi said 
the military is not the solution;  although many people are 
saying that may be the only way out, they are wrong. 
 
¶13.  (C) Comment: Utomi's his track record as Director of the 
Center for Applied Economics at the Lagos Business School, 
his commitment to public service evidenced by his 
issues-oriented 2007 campaign for the Presidency, the trust 
both Ijaw youth leaders and the South-South Governors seem to 
have reposed in him, and his integrity make him potentially 
well placed to act as an honest broker for the Niger Delta 
crisis.  As the choice of the South-South Governors to lead 
their attempts to develop the region, Utomi can play a key 
economic role for the region as well.  Despite these credible 
steps toward resolution of the complex tangle of issues that 
stand as a barrier to peace in the Niger Delta, Utomi, 
originally from Delta State, is facing an uphill battle 
against the powerful kleptocrats in government and elsewhere 
who benefit directly from the turmoil that cloaks the theft 
 
LAGOS 00000191  005 OF 005 
 
 
of oil and scandalous failures of development in the Niger 
Delta. 
 
HUDSON