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RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0097/01 0981211
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 081211Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2333
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2858

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000097 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: CASTE, GOVERNANCE AND DEVELOPMENT TO 
DETERMINE PARLIAMENT ELECTION IN BIHAR 
 
REF: KOLKATA 35 
 
KOLKATA 00000097  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Politics in Bihar is dominated by regional 
parties pushing their caste interests.  Bihar's Chief Minister 
(CM) Nitish Kumar heads the Janata Dal-United (JDU) party, 
presently a member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), 
and is winning over Bihar's poorest and lowest caste citizens 
through new affirmative action initiatives and a focus on 
governance and development.  The NDA is helped by Kumar's image 
as an effective CM after 15 years of perceived government 
mismanagement under Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal 
(RJD) administration.  Indian National Congress's (INC) failure 
to negotiate a seat sharing deal with the RJD and Ram Vilas 
Paswan's Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) does not bode well for the 
United Progressive Alliance's (UPA) and may result in an 
influential "Fourth Front" swing vote in determining the next 
coalition government.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Bihar is India's third most populous state, with 83 
million people and 40 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats (lower house of 
parliament).  Polling will be conducted in four phases on April 
16, 23, 30 and May 7.  Bihar, often cited as India's poorest and 
least developed state, has large Hindu and Muslim communities 
(82 and 16.5 percent of the population), with small numbers of 
Buddhists, Jains and Sikhs.  PolOff drew on meetings with 
politicians, party members, journalists, NGOs, and 
businesspersons in Bihar (Patna and Gaya) from March 23-27 to 
prepare this report. 
 
Bihar's History of Caste Politics 
¶3. (U) At the time of India's Independence in 1947, Bihar's 
political leadership was dominated by upper caste Hindus (mainly 
Brahmins and Thakurs) who now constitute approximately 13 
percent of the population and represent the landowning ruling 
elite.  This group has traditionally aligned with the Congress. 
The major low caste communities include the Yadavs (14 percent 
of Bihar's population), Paswans (Eight percent) and the Kurmis 
(five percent).  (Note: figures given for caste/community 
populations are very rough estimates).  In 1979, the Janata 
Party-led national government appointed the Mandal Commission to 
design an affirmative action program based on caste, social and 
economic backwardness. 
 
¶4. (U) The Janata Party disintegrated with its activist mentor 
Jaya Prakash Narain's death in 1979.  In 1988, India's 
anti-Congress secular leaders united to form the Janata Dal 
(JD).  In 1990, Prime Minister V.P. Singh (leading the JD 
government in Delhi) implemented the Mandal Commission's 
recommendations, ushering in caste-based reservations in 
government jobs and education.  This enabling legislation 
signaled the end of Bihar's caste coalition and the emergence of 
new parties breaking from JD, including the RJD, the LJP and the 
Samata Party which was later reborn as JDU.  These parties share 
certain common traits.  All remain caste-based parties led by 
community leaders and Narain protigis, including Lalu Prasad 
Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and current CM Nitish Kumar. 
Mandal-empowered low caste Biharis shifted their votes from the 
national parties to these community leaders, leaving little 
political space for national parties like the Congress and the 
BJP. 
 
Parties and Personalities 
 
¶5. (SBU) In 1990,  Lalu Prasad Yadav swept Bihar's state 
assembly elections, winning 122 out of 324 state assembly seats 
due to strong support from Yadav and Muslim voters. (The new 
state of Jharkhand was created out of Bihar in 2000.  Post 
bifurcation, Bihar assembly's strength is now 243 seats.)  Lalu 
Prasad, who went on to serve as CM for seven years, is widely 
viewed as a corrupt and ineffective legislator.  In 1997, facing 
serious corruption charges, he was forced to resign and 
reportedly had become such a liability for the JD that he was 
forced to split from the party to form his own political party, 
the RJD.   Despite his poor reputation, contacts credit Lalu 
Prasad for the RJD's success in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections 
(RJD won 21 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats) and report that his 
reward was the influential and financially lucrative post of 
Union Minister of Railways.  Under Prasad's leadership, Indian 
Railways has had a significant financial turnaround and contacts 
believe that Prasad has effectively used the position to 
increase his influence in Bihar politics.  His wife, Rabri Devi, 
is currently the leader of the opposition in the state assembly. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) In 2000, Ram Vilas Paswan, a leader from the Paswan low 
caste community, split from the JDU and formed the regional 
party LJP.  The split was an outcome of the power struggle 
 
KOLKATA 00000097  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
between Paswan and Lalu Prasad Yadav whose traditional support 
base is the Paswan caste members and Muslims.  To date, Paswan 
has not won major support in the states, winning only 4 Lok 
Sabha seats in 2004 and ten state assembly seats in 2005. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In 2003, Nitish Kumar, a member of low caste Kurmi 
community, formed yet another JD break away party, the JDU.  In 
2005, he formed an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP), who has traditionally won the votes of Bihar's upper 
castes, and together they won 143 out of 243 state assembly 
seats.  Both fans and critics acknowledge Kumar's positive 
effects on development and governance in Bihar, so much so that 
some people now speak of a "pre-Nitish" and "post-Nitish" Bihar 
(see Reftel).  Contacts told PolOff that over the past three 
years, Kumar has steadily expanded his support base across a 
wide range of social and religious communities.  He introduced a 
series of affirmative action schemes for lower castes, appointed 
two Muslims from poor communities to the Rajya Sabha (upper 
house of parliament), and introduced a 50 percent female 
reservation in the three-tiered panchayat (local governance 
bodies) system.  A Patna-based representative of the 
international organization UNICEF remarked on its positive 
collaboration with state civil servants and improvements in 
social development indicators.  Representatives from NGOs and 
the business community in Gaya, a district three hours south of 
Patna, also confirmed the popular perception of the positive 
developments made by the Kumar state government. 
 
The Power of Development and Governance 
 
¶8. (SBU) While local political analysts opine that caste may 
still be the best predictor of voting behavior in Bihar, there 
is general consensus that development and governance will 
influence the Lok Sabha election.  A CNN reporter in the state 
capitol of Patna told PolOff that "for the first time an issue 
other than caste [governance and development] will be considered 
in the election."  Contacts predict that this shift will benefit 
the NDA. Kumar has taken these issues to the grassroots.  Prior 
leaders may have also enjoyed mass appeal, but implementation of 
electoral promises lagged.  Since January 2009, Kumar has been 
reaching out to Bihar's villagers through his Vikas Yatra 
(development march).  During such tours, he stops at a village 
every 25-30 km and spends a few hours meeting residents before 
reviewing development schemes with officials.  These outreach 
programs can potentially upset caste equations. 
 
Comment 
 
¶9. (SBU) The RJD and LJP's decision to offer just three Lok 
Sabha seats to the INC, and the subsequent tie up with the 
Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh are clear signs of an 
effort to consolidate the Yadav, Dalit and Muslim votes and 
create a distance with the national party.  But if RJD and LJP 
have sought independence from their erstwhile UPA ally in the 
pre-poll period, Nitish Kumar has hinted at the possibility of a 
post-election reworking of alliances.  "We are now in NDA. Who 
knows where we will be after the elections," Kumar remarked in a 
recent television interview.  The INC's decision to contest all 
of Bihar's 40 parliamentary seats may present the party the 
opportunity to embark on a long journey to rebuild its presence 
in this part of the predominantly Hindi-speaking heartland.  But 
it will also convert Bihar's elections into a triangular 
contest, which will work in favor of Nitish Kumar.  In Bihar, 
similar to as in Orissa, regional parties, unable to predict 
post electoral outcomes, are keeping their alliance options open. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Caste will continue to play the predominant role in 
Bihar's Lok Sabha election, ensuring that parties such as RJD, 
LJP and SP win some seats.  With Kumar making inroads in Bihar's 
caste politics with his affirmative action and good governance 
programs, the state's traditional voting patterns have become 
less certain.  And with Kumar also hinting that he too can dump 
his NDA ally - as Naveen Patnaik did in Orissa - there is no 
clear advantage to any of the two national parties.  Even the 
potentially powerful RJD-LJP- Samajwadi "Fourth Front" can 
become important kingmaker at the center if it can protect its 
caste alignment. 
PAYNE