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RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0105/01 1120714
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 220714Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2340
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2867

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KOLKATA 000105 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EMIN IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 2009: UPA DISCORD AND ANTI-INCUMBENCY FAVOR 
BJP IN JHARKHAND 
 
REF: A. A) KOLKATA 19 
     ¶B. B) KOLKATA 97 
 
KOLKATA 00000105  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Since the mineral-rich tribal state of 
Jharkhand was carved out of the eastern Indian state of Bihar in 
2000, it has been plagued by a string of poorly performing 
governments and political instability.  Discord within the 
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and underlying anti-incumbency 
sentiments are promising signals in the parliamentary elections 
for the dominant national party in the state's legislative 
assembly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).  The state Congress 
Party has all-but-publicly-announced its break with the waning 
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).  With political parties weak and 
party discipline lacking, votes are likely to be scattered in a 
multi-cornered contest.  While Maoists are alleged to have a 
presence of differing degree throughout the state, security was 
not cited as a primary election issue to PolOFF in his tour 
through Jamshedpur and the state capital of Ranchi from April 6 
- 9, where he met with a cross-section of politicians, business 
leaders, mining representatives, journalists and NGO 
representatives.  Voting in Jharkhand's 14 parliamentary 
constituencies took/takes place on April 16 and 23 and results 
of these, along with India's 529 other constituencies, will be 
announced on May 16.  End Summary. 
 
A Mineral Rich State with Industrialization Prospects 
 
¶2. (U) In 2000, Jharkhand was carved out of the eastern Indian 
state of Bihar, thereby becoming India's 28th state and 
satisfying a tribal aspiration for statehood.  The bifurcation 
of Bihar created one of India's richest mineral states, with 
almost 40 percent of the country's mineral resources, including 
sizable coal, copper, bauxite, uranium and mica deposits. 
Jharkhand is a densely forested state - in fact in the local 
language Jharkhand roughly translates to "Forested Area".  While 
more than 80 percent of the state is involved with agriculture, 
the sector contributes only 13 percent of the state's domestic 
product.  Mining and heavy industry are significant contributors 
to the state's domestic product and the state's share of mining 
royalties is a perennial topic amongst Jharkhand's political 
classes.  Jamshedpur is the state's premier industrial town, 
often heralded as the original core of India's 
industrialization, with India's oldest steel plant, Tata Steel, 
and a large vehicle manufacturing facility, Tata Motors, with 
its associated suppliers, including the U.S. companies Timken 
and Cummins.  Several domestic steel producers are considering 
new production facilities in the area surrounding Ranchi. 
 
Tribal Demographics 
 
¶3. (SBU) Tribals (also known as Adivasis) represent 
approximately 28 percent of the state's total population of 27 
million and are divided into more than 22 tribal groups. 
Non-tribal upper castes, with historic residency in the region, 
are known as Sadans and together they, and the backward caste 
Mahatos, constitute approximately 32 percent of the population. 
The state is predominantly Hindu (69 percent); however, with a 
significant Muslim (14 percent) and small, but influential, 
Christian population (4 percent).  The remainder practices a 
variety of other religions or follows tribal beliefs. 
 
Parties and Personalities 
 
¶4. (SBU) The JMM is a Jharkhand-based regional party with four 
parliamentarians from Jharkhand and one parliamentarian in 
Orissa, born out of Shibu Soren's successful quest for statehood 
with strong tribal support.  Shibu Soren, a tribal leader and 
long-term member of parliament, who has a less than stellar 
reputation (he was acquitted of murder on technical grounds), 
was the first chairman of the Jharkhand Area Autonomous Council 
created in 1995, the legislative predecessor to the state 
assembly.  Shibu was Jharkhand's last Chief Minister until his 
defeat in the Tamar legislative assembly by-election 
precipitated the January 2009 imposition of President's Rule 
(see Reftel A).  Shibu's deteriorating health has impacted his 
ability to unify the party and campaign on its behalf throughout 
the state - and there is no apparent successor.  The party is 
widely rumored to blame its UPA ally Congress for Shibu Soren's 
defeat in the Tamar by-election - a position that Jharkhand 
state Congress President Pradip Balmuchu did not refute in a 
lengthy private interaction with PolOFF.  Shibu Soren's 
inability, or unwillingness, to stop his son Durga Soren from 
contesting against a Congress candidate is widely viewed as 
JMM's revenge for Congress' alleged lack of support in the 
by-election and the final nail in the coffin of the Congress-JMM 
 
KOLKATA 00000105  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
relationship and potentially heralding JMM's electoral demise. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In Jharkhand, the national parties, Congress (currently 
six parliamentarians) and the BJP (no parliamentarians), have 
statewide presence and benefit from access to national party 
assets and political heavyweights for the campaign. 
Traditionally, backward castes and religious minorities have 
tended to support Congress in the state, whereas upper castes 
and a section of tribals have supported the BJP.  While Congress 
has entered into a pre-poll alliance with JMM to contest 
parliamentary seats (Congress - seven, JMM - five and a friendly 
fight in two), according to Balmuchu the alliance is "an unhappy 
one" and "cooperation between the allies [is] far from 
complete."  On the other hand, BJP enjoys apparent harmonious 
relations with its National Democratic Alliance partner Janata 
Dal United (JD-U) and have entered into a seat sharing agreement 
that reflects BJP's greater strength (BJP - twelve, JD-U - two) 
and larger overall vote share (30 percent in the 2004 
parliamentary election).  The BJP has projected the young tribal 
former Chief Minister Arjun Munda as the party's face in the 
state.  While BJP won one parliamentary seat in 2004, its sole 
victor Babulal Marandi left the BJP in 2006 after the party 
replaced him with Munda as Chief Minister and sidelined him in 
the state unit.  He then formed his own party, the Jharkhand 
Vikas Morcha (JVM), which is reaching out to Jharkhand's tribal 
population.  Known to be opposed to both BJP and Congress, 
Marandi is likely to support the Third Front in the future.  The 
JVM is contesting all 14 parliamentary seats, and as a strong 
tribal leader, Marandi's charisma may further undermine the 
JMM's prospects.  While exit polls from the first round are 
currently unavailable; Balmuchu indicated in a follow-up 
conversation that in the six constituencies that went for 
polling in the first round on April 16, Congress has an 
advantage in one, BJP in two, JVM in one, with no clear leader 
in the other two. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Bihar-based political parties are also active in the 
state, most notably in the districts bordering Bihar.  Lalu 
Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has two sitting 
parliamentarians from Jharkhand, and is fielding candidates in 
six constituencies.  RJD's ally, Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janata 
Party (LJP) does not currently have any sitting parliamentarians 
from Jharkhand; however, it is contesting three seats (see 
Reftel B for more on Bihar-based regional parties).  Having 
parted with the UPA, these two parties are unlikely to make 
major gains in vote share if not in the number of seats won, 
particularly since Bihar's caste equations are not as strong a 
factor in tribal Jharkhand. 
 
Political Instability and Anti-Incumbency 
 
¶7. (SBU) Political instability within the UPA coalition at the 
state level is an important issue in the national election in 
Jharkhand.  While the UPA wishes to downplay the domestic 
Congress-JMM spat, the NDA's BJP and JD-U have highlighted the 
effects of weak governance on development in the state. 
However, political commentators are quick to remark that both 
UPA and NDA state governments in Jharkhand have over-promised 
and under-delivered and failed to convert numerous Memorandums 
of Understanding into actual business projects on the ground. 
The slow speed of industrialization is not a uniform concern. 
The JMM state secretary and a NGO representative aired tribal 
concern about displacement and re-settlement associated with 
mining and industrialization.  Journalists told PolOFF that the 
electorate's frustrations with governance and development feed a 
perceptible anti-incumbency feeling in Jharkhand.  According to 
security analysts and police contacts, Maoists are alleged to 
have a presence of differing degree in 22 of the 24 districts in 
the state.  Despite this presence, and occasional Maoist attacks 
(two of which occurred in Jharkhand in the run up to the 
elections), interlocutors did not cite security as a primary 
election issue during PolOFF's visit to the state.  Several, 
however, did imply that politicians make deals with Maoists to 
intimidate voters who support rival candidates. 
 
Comment 
 
¶8. (SBU) With political instability prevalent, and short-lived 
state governments interspersed with periods of centrally imposed 
President's Rule common, the short political life of Jharkhand 
as an independent state has been a disaster.  Jharkhand is one 
of the few states yet to introduce a local governance panchayat 
system.  To be fair, the panchayat system has been held up due 
to reasons beyond its control - a case is pending in the Supreme 
 
KOLKATA 00000105  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Court - but lack of political will and vision to move forward 
also contribute to its delay.  In Jharkhand, governance appears 
to be a question in this election of bad, more bad, worse.  Weak 
governance and political instability contribute to overall lack 
of development, thereby facilitating the Maoist presence in this 
mineral-rich state.  The BJP may be able to ride UPA discord and 
an anti-incumbency wave to a position of strength in the state. 
However, the sheer number of candidates and political parties 
contesting, for instance in one constituency there are 31 
candidates including 17 Independents, will tend to split the 
vote.  All parties are waiting for the parliamentary results 
before they decide whether and how to form a state government in 
Jharkhand or face early state elections (now scheduled for 2010) 
and re-emerge, once again, from what is in Jharkhand an 
all-to-common stay in political rehab, otherwise known as 
President's Rule. 
PAYNE