VZCZCXRO6382
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #0309 0911323
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011323Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9406
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS KINSHASA 000309 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV EAID PREF CG
SUBJECT: POSSIBLE VOLCANIC ERUPTION NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SERIOUS 
EFFECT ON GOMA 
 
REF: 06 KINSHASA 1840 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary.  Scientists predict that Mount Nyamulagira, a 
volcano 20 miles north of Goma, could erupt in the next few days. 
Nyamulagira erupts every 2 years on average, and typically has 
little effect on populated zones to the south.  Airborne ash and 
smoke may have a negative impact on air traffic in the region, and 
sulfur dioxide could mix with water sources to contaminate drinking 
water for some.  Scientists also continue to monitor Mount 
Nyiragongo, the more dangerous volcano 12 miles north of Goma that 
erupted and destroyed thousands of homes in Goma in 2002. 
Nyiragongo is not expected to pose any immediate threat due to the 
relatively low levels of the crater's lava lake.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Scientists at the Volcanological Observatory of Goma predict 
Mount Nyamulagira, one of Africa's most active volcanoes, will erupt 
in the next few days or weeks.  Nyamulagira is located in Virunga 
National Park in the North Kivu province, 20 miles north of Goma and 
8 miles northwest of the Nyiragongo volcano.  There are elevated 
levels of seismic activity centered closer to Nyamulagira, 
indicating an imminent eruption that would be its first since 
November 27, 2006 (ref).  Nyamulagira, a high-potassium basaltic 
shield volcano, erupts approximately every two years (recently in 
1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2006), typically with little 
effect on the higher-density populations of Goma and Gisenyi, Rwanda 
to the south.  Nyiragongo, a steeper and more dangerous volcano 
whose lava flow destroyed thousands of homes in Goma during its last 
eruption in January 2002, is not expected to erupt in the near 
future because its pool of lava remains low at 600 meters below the 
crater. 
 
¶3.  (U) The lead scientist for the Volcanological Observatory of 
Goma, Dieudonne Wafula Mifundu, issued a full report of the recent 
seismic activity on March 28.  Seismic equipment at the observatory 
registered intense activity January 23-27, which typically precedes 
an eruption by 3-5 months.  Wafulu says the recent sustained seismic 
activity suggests an eruption is imminent at Nyamulagira.  The 
report says the lower levels of Nyiragongo's lava lake indicate no 
immediate danger, but Wafulu says scientists will increase visits to 
the crater to monitor any change.  The UN Office for Project 
Services (UNOPS) in Goma issued a communique on March 24 to concur 
with the findings that an eruption is imminent.  UNOPS said there is 
no immediate danger to populated areas, but suggested the UN take 
precautions with regard to potential disruptions in air traffic 
caused by smoke and ash. 
 
¶4.  (U) Nyamulagira lava normally flows down the western slopes, 
where a few local farmers cultivate land and graze livestock, or 
north into uninhabited parts of Virunga National Park.  The warnings 
issued by the GDRC should prevent any potential loss of life or loss 
of livestock.  It is almost impossible for Nyamulagira lava to flow 
into Goma, which lies uphill from the base of the shield volcano. 
The likely consequences of an eventual Nyamulagira eruption include 
airborne ash and sulfur dioxide, which may contaminate sources of 
drinking water, and smoke that could negatively affect air traffic. 
 
 
GARVELINK