VZCZCXRO2022
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0578/01 1191312
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291312Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3669
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000578 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A A/S CARTER, AF/E, AF/C, DRL 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI ASEC AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: UNMIS ELECTIONS CHIEF: FEBRUARY 2010 ELECTIONS "VERY 
CHALLENGING" BUT DOABLE 
 
Refs:  A. Khartoum 562 
¶B. Khartoum 535 
¶C. Khartoum 414 
¶D. Khartoum 393 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Sudan's National Electoral Commission (NEC) has 
decided that elections will take place in February 2010 and has 
issued a planning calendar to reflect preparation that must occur in 
order to achieve that date.  UNMIS Electoral Affairs Chief Ray 
Kennedy said that meeting that date will be "very challenging" but 
feasible if the NEC is willing to accept international assistance. 
The NEC's calendar allows for some slippage on constituency 
delimitation and voter registration, but voter registration will 
occur during the rainy season under any scenario if elections take 
place in February.  Kennedy also stressed the importance of the 
parties agreeing on the southern Sudan Referendum Bill so that 
Referendum preparations can go forward.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) UNMIS Chief Electoral Affairs Officer Ray Kennedy 
characterized February 2010 Sudanese elections as "very challenging, 
but logistically and operationally feasible if the National 
Electoral Commission (NEC) is open to assistance" in a meeting with 
poloff on April 27.  The long-awaited official electoral calendar, 
which stipulates that elections will be held in February 2010, was 
publicly released by the National Electoral Commission (NEC) on 
April 2. [Note:  Kennedy was out of town when the calendar was 
released, but lamented that no one from UNMIS Electoral Affairs was 
invited to the NEC's press conference.  End Note].  It calls for 
electoral preparation and conduct in the following sequence on the 
following dates: 
 
--Demarcation of constituencies:  April 15-May 15 (2009) 
--Voter registration:  June 2-Aug 2 (2009) 
--Publication of voter register and appeals: August 3-31 (2009) 
--Acceptance of nominations:  September 1-November 6 (2009) 
--Publication of nominations list for appeals: November 7 (2009) 
--Final publication of nomination lists: November 10-27 (2009) 
--Electoral campaign period:  November 30-February 5 (2009-10) 
--Start of Polling: February 6 (2010) 
--End of Polling:  February 21 (2010) 
--Announcement of final results:  February 27 (2010) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Kennedy noted that the NEC has already missed its first 
deadline - demarcation of geographical constituencies, but admitted 
that the NEC cannot move forward with constituency delimitation 
until official national census results are released (expected any 
day now).  He indicated that a slip in constituency delimitation to 
May, June, or July is acceptable given the overall timeline.  He 
highlighted an important issue, though - that even if census results 
were available, constituency delimitation could not occur without 
State Electoral High Committees in place.  So far, the NEC has not 
established these Committees or the Southern Sudan Electoral High 
Committee, nor provided clarity on the Committees' powers.  Kennedy 
said that voter registration will in no way begin in June (per the 
NEC's intended date).  The NEC has not yet put in place registration 
procedures, a recruitment plan for voter registration staff or a 
procurement plan.  According to Kennedy, the NEC has only just 
recently asked the UN for a concept of operations for voter 
registration, which UNMIS delivered to it on April 27. The plan 
recommends that the NEC begin a rolling voter registration in August 
and carry it through until the end of October.  This would allow 
registration to conclude three months before polling begins, which 
is a legal requirement per the national electoral law.  Kennedy 
pointed to two downfalls of registration during this time: Ramadan 
and the rainy season, but noted that registration by these dates was 
necessary for elections to be carried out legally in February 2010. 
Kennedy also suggested to the NEC that it shorten the time periods 
for accepting nominations and campaigning, which would allow for 
registration to occur a couple of months later than intended (and 
thus avoid the heaviest months of the rainy season). 
 
¶4. (SBU) Kennedy attributed the early lag in preparation to the 
NEC's still-shockingly low capacity (in terms of staff and funding). 
 The nine NEC commissioners are involved in "day-to-day operations, 
when they should be involved in policy discussions," said Kennedy. 
The UNMIS Elections Chief expressed concern that the NEC has 
selected an "unworkable" operational model, which assigns 
Commissioners to operational work that should be done by technical 
staff instead [Note:  UNMIS is also somewhat perturbed that the NEC 
disregarded its suggested NEC operational models, which were handed 
to the Commission soon after it was established.  End note.] 
Kennedy also said that the NEC has been tasked by the Ministry of 
International Cooperation (MIC) to compose a comprehensive elections 
 
KHARTOUM 00000578  002 OF 003 
 
 
budget now that MIC is involved in coordinating overall (government 
and donor) support to elections.  A lack of financial resources has 
thus far stymied the NEC's ability to hire staff and move forward on 
critical preparation.  Kennedy said the NEC is having a difficult 
time coming up with a comprehensive, all-inclusive budget for the 
elections because it does not yet know what is required to pull off 
the elections.  According to Kennedy, MIC wants to know "the entire 
price tag" of the elections and what portion of this donors will 
fund.  Poloff asked Kennedy if any of his staff were sitting jointly 
with NEC at its new office.  Kennedy expressed frustration that the 
NEC had chosen an office that was too small to accommodate growing 
staff, contrary to UNMIS' warning that the selected office space 
would be too small.  As a result, no UNMIS staff is sitting at NEC 
HQ.  Kennedy said UNDP is looking for a second location that NEC 
could use for its overflow staff, select UNMIS and UNDP electoral 
officers, and presumably some electoral implementing partners. 
Kennedy is still fighting to get a seat of his own at NEC HQ so he 
can directly work with the NEC Director and Deputy Director on 
high-level issues. 
 
GETTING THE DARUFR REBELS TO PARTICIPATE IN ELECTIONS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶5. (SBU) Although Kennedy has been requesting a meeting with AU/UN 
Chief Mediator for Darfur Djibril Bassole for quite some time now, 
Kennedy said that Bassole is only willing to meet with him after the 
official electoral calendar has been released.  According to 
Kennedy, Bassole wants UNMIS Electoral Unit staff to be involved in 
providing material on basic electoral principles and what to expect 
from participating in elections to rebel groups in Darfur.  Kennedy 
is also going to try and negotiate a NEC-authorized agreement that 
would allow the UN movement control in rebel areas before and during 
elections in order to train the local populations to administer 
voter registration, polling and tabulation in rebel-held areas.  The 
idea is that registration, polling and tabulation in these areas 
would be monitored by the UN.  Bassole reported to Kennedy that most 
of the rebel groups still have negative feelings towards the 
elections and will not participate.  Bassole requested that Kennedy 
travel to Doha in order to speak with the rebel factions about the 
importance of elections and encourage them to participate in the 
process.  Kennedy was enthusiastic about this proposal. 
 
UN ELECTORAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT MISSION 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶6. (SBU) Kennedy told poloff that UNMIS Special Representative to 
the Secretary General (SGSG) Ashraf Qazi was able to convince UNHQ 
to send a UN Electoral Needs Assessment Mission (NAM)to Sudan in 
order to identify appropriate UN funding/staffing requirements to 
support UNMIS in its mandate to assist the Government of National 
Unity (GNU) and Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) to carry out 
nation-wide elections (previously the team had refused to visit due 
to security concerns) (ref C). The team arrived in Khartoum on April 
28 for a ten-day visit.  It will visit Khartoum, Juba, and El 
Fasher.  Kennedy noted that the NAM's findings will result in a 
supplemental UN budget request for UNMIS to support Sudanese 
elections.  In light of the needs based on the rushed electoral 
timetable that the Sudanese have adopted, he requested that the U.S. 
put its full support behind this supplemental budget request. 
 
TROUBLE AHEAD IF REFERENDUM PREPARATION NON-EXISTENT 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶7. (SBU) Kennedy, who is always aware of the bigger picture of CPA 
implementation and its intended timeline and generally in touch with 
Sudanese politics, underscored his concern with the lack of movement 
on the Southern Sudan Referendum Bill.  "Referendum preparation is 
already a year and a half behind," and it is imperative that the 
bill be passed in the current parliamentary session in order for 
preparation to adequately get underway so that the Referendum can 
occur in early 2011 (ref A). Kennedy and poloff discussed the 
primary hold-up of the Referendum law, which is the NCP's desire to 
work out post-2011 arrangements for wealth-sharing, debt repayment, 
Nile water-sharing, and other significant items, in return for 
negotiations on the modalities associated with conducting the 
Referendum.  Kennedy suggested that if the legal framework for the 
Referendum will not be resolved anytime soon, that the diplomatic 
community encourage the NCP and the SPLM to identify a Referendum 
Commission so that preparation can get underway.  In Kennedy's 
opinion, the legal framework could follow. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - 
¶8. (SBU) Now that the NEC has released an official elections 
calendar, it must begin to move forward with meeting intended 
deadlines - otherwise its ability to effectively organize elections 
 
KHARTOUM 00000578  003 OF 003 
 
 
will come into question.  Some things, such as GNU funding and the 
release of census results, are out of NEC's hands, but the 
Commission needs to immediately recruit national staff and develop 
concrete policies, plans, and regulations so that preparations can 
move forward.  Donors and the UN are willing and ready to assist the 
NEC with electoral preparation and the NEC would be wise to work in 
concert with these groups in order to get the elections ball 
rolling.  Unfortunately, it seems as though a natural tension has 
already developed between the UN and the NEC.  The NEC is driven by 
a number of keenly nationalistic personalities who do not want the 
international community playing a significant role in Sudan's 
elections (ref D).  As a result, the NEC has already disregarded a 
number of the UN's proposals and the UN's frustration is slowly 
rising.  That being said, the USG relationship with the NEC is on a 
very positive track with the recent registration of IFES, which will 
provide electoral administration support to the NEC, which was 
coordinated by NEC, MIC and the USG (ref B).  As for Kennedy's 
suggestion of the parties establishing a Referendum Commission 
before the law is in place, this is unlikely to happen.  Kennedy is 
rightly concerned that the parties are already drastically behind on 
referendum preparation, but it's in the NCP's nature (and interest) 
to continue to stall the Referendum and any preparations for it. 
Getting any movement on the Referendum (whether it be the law itself 
or the setting up of a Commission prior to the law) will take 
significant U.S. engagement with the parties on post-2011 
arrangements.  End Comment. 
 
FERNANDEZ