VZCZCXRO0790
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0571/01 1181106
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 281106Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3650
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000571 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A A/S CARTER, AF/E, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI KPKO ASEC AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: MALIK AGAR PRESSES HARD FOR TRUTH TO BE TOLD IN THREE AREAS 
EXPULSION REPORT 
 
Refs:  A. Khartoum 332 
¶B. Khartoum 306 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Governor of Blue Nile State Malik Agar is 
fighting for the truth to be reflected in an INGO expulsion report 
for the Three Areas.  According to Malik, the Three Areas joint 
UN-GOS assessment after the National Congress Party's (NCP's) INGO 
expulsions on March 4 revealed that INGOs provided 90 percent of the 
development, reconciliation programming, and service delivery in 
these fragile and turbulent regions, which straddle the 1-1-56 
north/south border.  Malik emphasized the need for peace dividends 
to be realized in the Three Areas, whether through Government of 
National Unity (GNU) development funding or international 
assistance, in order to convince the people that they have something 
worth keeping the peace for.  Right now, they have to lose by going 
back to war, he said.  Malik also said that the SPLM has secured the 
commitment of key Darfur rebel leaders such as Khalil Ibrahim and 
Abdel Wahid Al Nour to convene in Juba "soon."  He said that the 
SPLM is trying to convince GNU President Bashir to allow First Vice 
President (and SPLM Chairman) Salva Kiir to offer attractive 
concessions, in the way of uniting the Darfur region and providing 
compensation, to these leaders to coax them into joining Darfur 
political negotiations in Doha, Qatar.  End Summary. 
 
MALIK FIGHTS FOR A TRUTHFUL THREE AREAS EXPULSION REPORT 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2. (SBU) On April 26, CDA Fernandez met with the combative Governor 
of Blue Nile State Malik Agar (who is also Deputy Secretary General 
of the SPLM) in Khartoum.  Governor Malik has been spending more 
time in Khartoum lately as he continues to battle the NCP over the 
final version of a joint UN-GOS assessment of the March 4 INGO 
expulsions on the Three Areas (Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan and 
Abyei) (ref B). Malik explained to the CDA that he had been in a 
meeting earlier in the day with State Minister for Humanitarian 
Affairs (and ICC indictee) Ahmed Haroun and the obstructionist 
Humanitarian Aid Commissioner (HAC) Hassabo to discuss the 
assessment and return of aid to the Three Areas.  "The meeting went 
very badly; Hassabo was very hostile and is delaying the assessment 
report for the Three Areas," said Malik.  According to Malik, the 
NCP and HAC are trying to sabotage the facts of the report in order 
to downplay the impact of the expulsions on the Three Areas while 
Malik and some of his other SPLM colleagues are fighting for the 
release of a more truthful report.  Unfortunately, "They are trying 
to implicate me for delaying" their deficient report, said Malik. 
The Governor said that the SPLM sarcastically thanked the NCP for 
the expulsions "because we learned through the assessments that 90 
percent of the work" (development, service delivery, reconciliation, 
etc.) in those areas was being provided by NGOs, not the state, area 
or federal governments.  "It is good that this has been brought to 
our attention; the Government needs to do something about it now," 
he said. Governor Malik told CDA that in previous discussions the 
NCP told him that the expelled NGOs could return to Sudan if they 
assumed new names. The NCP asked that he communicate this message to 
the expelled groups.  Malik said that he spoke with CARE and some of 
the other groups and they would not accept such terms (though this 
information is dated, as CARE is traveling to Khartoum later this 
week to discuss the new arrangement with the GOS).  He also said 
that the NCP was keen to have new or local NGOs assume the work that 
the expelled and dissolved groups were doing.  CDA Fernandez 
explained to Malik Special Envoy Gration's approach to dealing with 
the expulsion crisis during his visit to Khartoum in early April. 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Governor Malik told the CDA that the Three Areas assessment 
report would be filed this week.  The part of the report that deals 
with Blue Nile State is finished, but the Abyei portion of the 
report is holding us up, he said.  [Note:  Governor Malik made no 
mention of the Southern Kordofan portion of the report, which we 
understand from other sources is still under discussion.  End Note.] 
 The NCP and HAC wanted to release three separate reports - one for 
each of the two states and a third for Abyei.  Malik refused and 
told them that the report must be a comprehensive one for the entire 
Three Areas.  Malik said that the SPLM and HAC/NCP discussed how the 
joint SPLM-NCP administration of the Thee Areas lends itself to a 
different structure for allowing accessibility to the region. 
"There are three-to-four [outstanding] issues related to 
accessibility of the Three Areas; we think we'll resolve this 
shortly," he said. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Malik added that a USG push on getting aid back into the 
Three Areas and having a Three Areas accessibility system that is 
jointly administered by the SPLM and the NCP would be helpful.  The 
Three Areas have fallen off of your radar over the past few years, 
 
KHARTOUM 00000571  002 OF 003 
 
 
especially Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan, claimed Malik.  "I am 
being frank - it is no longer on your radar; there are no peace 
dividends or funds for development," he added.  The Governor said 
that the Government of National Unity (GNU) had promised Blue Nile 
State alone 300 million Sudanese pounds (SDP) in development 
funding.  Malik was told by the NCP that he should expect a "GNU 
Ministry of Finance letter of guarantee for 50 million SDP" by April 
¶27.  "Up to now, none of this money has been realized," he said. 
"People's frustrations are kicking in."  The only things that 
existed in Blue Nile were built by the INGOs - schools, a health 
clinic here and there."  We have received no funds from the GNU for 
development and the people's frustration is compounded by the fact 
that the international community has forgotten about Blue Nile and 
Southern Kordofan, said Malik.  The two states' hope is for peace in 
Sudan, but they have nothing to fear that they will lose if they do 
go back to war, he continued.  With the southern Sudan Referendum on 
self-determination only 20 months away, people are resigned to the 
fact that the South is going to separate.  "If the South goes, there 
will be no Sudan," said Malik.  Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan and 
Abyei will also look for a way to go South; Darfur will disintegrate 
and become entangled with Chad, and the East will "kiss and make-up" 
with Eritrea, said Malik.  All of this means a lot of bloodshed in 
Sudan, he continued.  "If elections are rigged in any way, there 
will be violence immediately in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, he 
warned.  The two states are flashpoints for conflict, he added. 
 
¶5. (SBU) CDA explained that the US was beginning to ratchet up its 
assistance to Three Areas through a USD 100 million USAID program 
that includes development assistance, service delivery and peace and 
reconciliation programs (BRIDGE).  CDA explained that the INGO 
expulsions in March 2009 cut the USG off at the knees in terms of 
being able to deliver the program to the Three Areas (ref B). CDA 
lamented that the NCP had "succeeded in delaying" the BRIDGE program 
with the INGO expulsions at least until after this year's rainy 
season.  Governor Malik asked if USAID was ready to "find another 
mechanism" to bridge the assistance gap in the meantime.  CDA told 
Malik that the USG has some ideas and that Special Envoy Gration 
would travel to Sudan with the Deputy Director for USAID next week 
in order to discuss various options.  Malik said the NGO delivery of 
peace-building, service delivery and reconciliation brought "some 
hope" to the Three Areas.  "We'll think together on what we can do," 
he said. [Note:  SE Gration will meet with Governor Malik during his 
upcoming visit to Sudan on April 5-9.  End note.] 
 
SPLM TO BRING DARFUR REBEL LEADERS TO JUBA 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶6. (SBU) Governor Malik took the opportunity to tell CDA that the 
SPLM has been successful in convincing Darfur rebel commanders, 
including the Justice and Equality Movement's (JEM's) Khalil Ibrahim 
and the Sudan Liberation Army's (SLA's) Abdel Wahid Al Nour, to 
convene in Juba.  (Note: Not surprisingly, we later learned from 
SPLM Darfur Task Force leader and newly-appointed Deputy Governor of 
Southern Kordofan Abdel Aziz Helou that Abdel Wahid Al Nur had not 
yet agreed to travel to Juba, but that the SPLM is still hopeful 
that Abdel Wahid will allow some of his commanders to travel to Juba 
- septel. End note.)  Although a definitive date has not yet been 
set, the movements will come to Juba "soon," said Malik.  Malik said 
that the SPLM has informed the NCP (Security Chief Salah Ghosh) 
about Khalil, Abdel Wahid and others traveling to Juba - "we know 
this is sensitive to them," he said. Malik said that the SPLM is 
trying to convince GNU President Bashir to allow GNU First Vice 
President and SPLM Chairman Salva Kiir Mayardit to provide 
concessions to the movements in order to get them to come to the 
negotiating table in Doha.  Malik explained that this would mean 
that Bashir, through Kiir, should be ready to offer individual 
compensation to Abdel Wahid and the Fur and a united Darfur region 
and federal vice presidency slot to Khalil and JEM.  "We told him 
[President Bashir] that this is a good opportunity," said Malik.  We 
also told him that Darfur could be linked to a UNSC postponement on 
the ICC indictment, he continued.  CDA pointed out that a UNSC vote 
to postpone to the ICC indictment was highly unlikely because Sudan 
doesn't have (and won't get) the votes that it needs to make it 
happen. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Malik said that GNU Foreign Minister Deng Alor (SPLM) will 
talk to President Bashir about the SPLM's idea of allowing Kiir to 
offer concessions to JEM and SLM-AW.  CDA cautioned that this may 
not work because the NCP doesn't like to see the SPLM (or anyone 
other than the NCP) succeed in brokering peace for Darfur. It is 
hard to conceive that Bashir would willingly want to be helpful to 
Kiir in this matter.  Malik agreed with the CDA, but said something 
must be done. "Ocampo reports to the UNSC in June . . . when the 
UNSC defeats a vote to postpone the ICC indictment of Bashir, I see 
 
KHARTOUM 00000571  003.3 OF 003 
 
 
this country disintegrating," he said.  Malik explained that the 
Darfur leaders want to meet and agree with the SPLM first before 
agreeing to something with the NCP.  Malik said that his opinion is 
that if Bashir does not allow Kiir to offer concessions to Khalil 
and Abdel Wahid, then it is "pointless for them to come" to Juba. 
If they come to Juba and Kiir cannot offer them anything, it is 
embarrassing to the First Vice President and could destroy the 
SPLM's credibility.  If Bashir is unwilling to offer anything 
through Kiir, then we [the SPLM] should tell Khalil and Abdel Wahid 
that there is no sense in coming to Juba, sighed Malik. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: In typical fashion, a strong-willed and articulate 
Malik Agar has gone head-to-head with the NCP and HAC on the issue 
of the impact of the INGO expulsions on the Three Areas, and in 
particular on Blue Nile State.  The burly Malik is not someone to 
walk away from a fight, so the NCP will have a harder time employing 
a divide and conquer tactic on the Three Areas (with regard to the 
joint assessment) as long as Malik is watching.  If the SPLM can 
negotiate with the NCP/HAC on a joint NCP-SPLM arrangement for 
allowing access to the Three Areas for INGOs from the North, then 
this is a step in the right direction.  The Embassy continues to 
meet with representatives from Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan and 
Abyei to explain to them the importance of negotiating an improved 
operating environment for INGOS in the Three Areas so that 
significant development programs like USAID's BRIDGE can move 
forward.  Such programs are critical to keeping the peace in the 
Three Areas before and during 2010 elections and the 2011 southern 
Sudan Referendum and helping them determine a workable end state 
solution. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment continued:  The SPLM continues to be involved in 
finding a political solution to the problem of Darfur, and its 
invitation to Darfur rebel leaders to convene in Juba is its latest 
strategy to try and convince the big players (Khalil and Abdel 
Wahid) to enter negotiations with the GNU in Doha, Qatar.  It will 
be a big win for the SPLM if Khalil and Abdel Wahid do show up in 
Juba, but Malik's assessment is right - the GNU, through President 
Bashir and FVP Kiir, must be willing to offer the rebel leaders 
attractive concessions in order to get any traction on their 
participation in Doha.  Unfortunately, the NCP is generally 
unwilling to allow its CPA partner to score any political gains, 
even when it could lead to peace.  The NCP will want to offer an 
individual deal on Darfur on its own terms, but unfortunately what 
is has offered until now has not been good enough nor are the 
Darfuri rebels united or clear enough on what they want.  The best 
hope for concessions from the regime on Darfur will likely come 
through pressure and incentives offered via U.S. bilateral 
engagement.  End Comment. 
 
FERNANDEZ