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Viewing cable 09KHARTOUM565, SPLM POLITBURO FOCUSED ON ECONOMIC CRISIS; HOPES THAT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09KHARTOUM565 2009-04-27 19:20 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Khartoum
VZCZCXRO0171
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0565/01 1171920
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271920Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3630
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000565 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A A/S CARTER, AF/E, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI ECON ASEC AU KPKO UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SPLM POLITBURO FOCUSED ON ECONOMIC CRISIS; HOPES THAT 
OTHERS CAN HELP OUT 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Government of National Unity (GNU) Presidential 
Advisor Dr. Mansour Khalid (a prominent SPLM northerner) said that 
the southern Sudan economic crisis was the hot topic at the SPLM's 
April Political Bureau (PB) Meeting.  He noted that an SPLM team is 
working with the World Bank on a plan for Government of Southern 
Sudan (GoSS) civil service reform and admitted that corruption and 
mismanagement are major problems that the GoSS must address.  Dr. 
Khalid said that the GoSS has reached out to other nations, such as 
Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), for loans during the 
South's economic crunch, but lamented that the UAE and other nations 
cannot provide the GoSS with budgetary support.  Khalid said that 
while NGO polling in southern Sudan seems to overwhelming indicate 
that Southerners will vote for separation in 2011, leaders and some 
communities in Upper Nile, Bahr El Ghazal and Unity State are 
actually committed to unity.  With only 20 months until the southern 
Sudan Referendum, he acknowledged that it would be very difficult to 
change the minds of a majority of Southerners to vote for unity over 
separation.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On April 23, CDA Fernandez met with GNU Presidential 
Advisor Dr. Mansour Khalid (SPLM).  Khalid had just returned from 
Doha, Qatar, where he was following up on the recent GNU and rebel 
negotiations on Darfur as well as looking for funding for the 
Government of South Sudan (GOSS).  He described a chronic problem of 
the National Congress Party (NCP) as wanting to do "everything 
alone"; "they don't have the decency of informing their partner [the 
SPLM]" of their plans, noting that they had informed the SPLM only a 
short while before departure in February to negotiate with JEM.  He 
also cited the NCP's recent solo diplomatic trips to France and 
Uganda as prime examples of their stubborn behavior to involve the 
SPLM on foreign policy.  "We don't trust this regime, but we have to 
deal with them; this is life," said Khalid. 
 
3. (SBU) Switching gears, Dr. Khalid told CDA Fernandez that 
southern Sudan economic crisis dominated the agenda during the 
recent SPLM Political Bureau meeting in Juba that took place in 
mid-April. Mismanagement and corruption are big problems in the 
South, and the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) must train people 
to correctly use resources and select the right people for the right 
jobs, he said.  All too often people are hired based on tribalism, 
noting the example of the GOSS Finance Minister. "We can't go on 
this way," said Khalid. The GNU Presidential Advisor explained that 
he has a team working with the World Bank on a plan to the 
streamline GoSS civil service.  "This is not going to be an easy 
task" because it means cutting GoSS staff and eliminating 
eliminating "ghost employees" previously funded by the Khartoum 
occupation government before 2005 ad Eliminaving p(e doubleQ 
s`la2ies rome ot`erwxaa!Bev"Re`5mvah'$ xi beMas{a%Q"!InPc'lkQim^$QpdQKtOQoSiQoSsqQyd,tl eQ|gmqlY'QjQqeQokQy"}BY,{wnwQQoJh+jkSc=AmWQpO Qp -RoQakU'Qt$OQc&Sdck'sR!r]Jq7{Qk?PxQnoted that one-third of Sudan's annual income is used to buy weapons 
from Belarus.  "The NCP is not spending its money on anything 
useful," Khalid lamented. 
 
4. (SBU) In the aftermath of President Obama's win in the United 
States, "our people [of southern Sudan] are dreaming" of things like 
direct budget support from the US, explained Khalid. CDA countered 
that direct financial transfers of the sort Dr. Khalid was talking 
about are very rare in the best of times, but even more so now with 
the global financial crisis. Khalid said that the GoSS Minister of 
Education noted during the SPLM PB Meeting that Norway and another 
Scandinavian country, possibly Sweden, have volunteered to pay 
salaries for GoSS Ministry of Education staff for 2009.  Khalid said 
that he himself has been discussing the ability of the GoSS to 
obtain loans from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).  "The UAE tells me 
there is no money for budgetary support," but that there is money 
for things like schools, roads, and other development projects. 
Khalid explained that Abu Dhabi is "owes" the GoSS because of past 
petroleum-related business deals the southern Sudanese made with 
TOTAL Petroleum taking over Marathon Oil.  "We transferred the 
business of a former U.S. company to Abu Dhabi instead of China, so 
they should give us something," he said.  According to estimates, we 
don't expect oil prices to rise until mid-2010 at the very earliest, 
said Khalid.  "This is a period during which we need and want to 
make unity attractive, but we don't have money to do so," he 
lamented. 
 
5. (SBU) CDA Fernandez asked Khalid if the SPLM leaders that 
believed in unity could persuade the people of southern Sudan to 
vote that way.  It's a "touchy situation" because people in the 
South seem to want separation, but the intensity of tribal feuds has 
 
KHARTOUM 00000565  002 OF 002 
 
 
dramatically increased with the number of weapons in the South, he 
said.  Khalid said he has seen the National Democratic Institute's 
polling of southerners on the unity versus separation question, 
where the result is overwhelmingly (over 95 percent) in support of 
separation.  "I think in Equatoria, there is a trend towards 
separation" said Khalid, because the southernmost states of Sudan 
view themselves as extensions of Kenya and Uganda and at the 
grassroots level, have very close relationships with the neighboring 
countries.  "I doubt, however, that is the case in Upper Nile, Bahr 
El Ghazal, and Unity State."  The governors and leaders in these 
states are more committed to unity, he said.  Khalid continued, "the 
NCP keeps asking us what we are doing to encourage unity, but we ask 
them the same," he said. 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: The SPLM and the GoSS have correctly identified 
their most urgent internal issue - resolving the South's immediate 
economic crisis - there is little indication that they are doing 
enough in the way of structural readjustment to correct it.  Rather, 
they are still unrealistically reaching out to other nations (and in 
particular the US), hoping that they can secure enough external 
funding to get through the current spell of low oil prices and high 
expenses to get them through.  The USG should continue to encourage 
the GOSS to look for ways to cut back spending, to include careful 
salary cuts, rather than driving itself deeply into debt and racking 
up salary arrears, which could lead to an erosion in confidence in 
the GOSS and provoke even greater instability in an already volatile 
South Sudan.  At the same time, Khartoum needs to be warned not to 
sow the seeds of further instability in an already fragile South. 
End Comment. 
 
FERNANDEZ