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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3473

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000298 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS WIN THREE OUT OF SIX SEATS IN 
BY-ELECTIONS 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Unified Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist 
(UCPN-M or Maoists) emerged as the winners of the Constituent 
Assembly by-elections on April 10, winning seats in three out 
of six constituencies.  The Communist Party of Nepal - United 
Marxist Leninist (UML), Nepali Congress (NC), and Madhesi 
People's Rights Forum (MPRF) each won a constituency; 
however, the NC lost two constituencies it had won in the 
April 2008 election -- one to the Maoists and one to the UML 
-- while the MPRF lost one constituency it won in 2008 to the 
NC.  Observers from the Carter Center, National Democratic 
Institute (NDI), UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human 
Rights (OHCHR), and the Canadian Embassy noted that technical 
glitches, violence, and disagreements among party workers 
marred voting and counting in some of the constituencies, but 
their overall assessment of the election was positive. 
 
Results 
------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On April 10, one year to the day of the 2008 
Constituent Assembly (CA) elections, the Nepal Election 
Commission held by-elections to fill six vacant seats in the 
601-member CA.  In five cases, CA members won in two 
constituencies.  In the sixth case, Ram Baran Yadav had to 
vacate his seat upon becoming President.  The results of the 
CA by-elections are as follows: 
 
Morang-5 - Jaya Ram Yadav, MPRF (keeping the seat previously 
won by Upendra Yadav) 
 
Morang-7 - Shekhar Koirala, NC (winning the seat previously 
won by MPRF's Bijay Gachhadar) 
 
Dhanusa-5 - Raghubir Mahashet, UML (winning the seat 
previously won by NC's Ram Baran Yadav) 
 
Kaski-1 - Krishna Bahadur Gurung, UCPN-M (keeping the seat 
previously won by Dev Gurung) 
 
Rolpa-2 - Santosh Budhamagar, UCPN-M (keeping the seat 
previously won by Prime Minister Dahal) 
 
Kanchanpur-4 - Harish Thakulla, UCPN-M (winning the seat 
previously won by NC's Sher Bahadur Deuba) 
 
Violence Among the Polls... 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Dhanusa, the most hotly contested constituency, 
experienced a series of violent incidents and voting 
irregularities prior to and during the by-election.  On April 
9, the Terai Rastriya Mukti Sena (Terai National Liberation 
Army), an armed group that had called a poorly-enforced 
three-day "bandh" (strike) in the district to disrupt the 
polls, allegedly abducted Santosh Shah, a candidate from the 
minor Communist Party of Nepal - Marxist Leninist.  As of 
April 13, Shah's whereabouts were unknown; unconfirmed 
reports indicated that he was released to the police, while 
some watchers speculated that he orchestrated his own 
kidnapping to increase his votes.  Mahashet, the winning UML 
candidate, reportedly instigated a clash between UML Youth 
Force cadres and the NC on the afternoon of April 10, 
temporarily delaying voting in one polling center.  Mahashet 
accused the local administration of supporting the NC 
candidate (Dr. Chandra Mohan Yadav, the son of President 
Yadav) and announced to journalists the he "will either 
kill...or will die."  A Carter Center observer in Dhanusha 
recounted at least three cases of booth capturing, primarily 
by the UML but in one case by the NC. 
 
...But Districts Mostly Calm 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Observers from the Carter Center, NDI, OHCHR, and 
Canadian Embassy commented on the security at the polling 
 
KATHMANDU 00000298  002 OF 003 
 
 
centers, much improved from the original CA election.  The 
country director of NDI noted that police had a strong, 
organized presence in every constituency -- upwards of 25 
police at a polling center, compared to three or four during 
the 2008 election.  Despite violent clashes in the days 
preceding the election between the Maoists and Matrika 
Yadav's splinter group, the security environment in the two 
Morang constituencies was surprisingly calm, according to the 
Local Development Officer and other post contacts.  An 
observer from the domestic organization DEAN reported that a 
clash between the Youth Force and Maoist's Young Communist 
League in Rolpa was resolved early in the morning.  No other 
major incidents occurred in Rolpa, although disagreements 
among the contending parties stalled vote counting throughout 
the day on April 11.  Counting resumed after the parties 
reached an agreement that evening.  Kaski and Kanchanpur 
remained calm, although the former suffered from technical 
difficulties with the voting machines and the latter saw 
particularly low voter turnout. 
 
Technical Snafus 
---------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Malfunctioning electronic voting machines 
interrupted polling in 11 centers in Kaski.  Technicians 
repaired the machines in eight of the centers and replacement 
machines for the remaining centers were flown in from 
Kathmandu. Additionally, one machine lost 400 votes.  Despite 
delays of up to four hours and the narrow win of the Maoists 
over the NC (by three dozen votes), the parties have yet to 
dispute the Kaski results.  In other constituencies, polling 
centers experienced minor glitches with the electronic voter 
machines, mostly revolving around faulty batteries.  Some 
older voters appeared confused about how to use the machines, 
but overall, people seemed to trust the electronic machines 
more than the previous paper-and-stamp method of voting. 
(Note:  In the April 2008 election, only one constituency in 
Kathmandu used electronic voter machines.  Every constituency 
used the electronic machines for the by-elections.  The 
Election Commission and U.S.-funded organizations initiated 
voter education programs in each of the constituencies.  End 
note.) 
 
Identification Issues and Low Voter Turnout 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Polling stations strictly enforced the new 
requirement from the Election Commission that all voters must 
present citizenship cards as identification.  Nepalese voters 
generally regarded the requirement as a positive development 
because it minimized the possibility of fraudulent votes. 
International observers said they saw little evidence that 
the requirement disenfranchised legitimate voters, although 
they did report some instances to the contrary.  Police 
prevented people without citizenship cards from entering the 
polling areas.  In a few cases, polling officials rejected 
people with certified photocopies or newer, smaller 
citizenship cards.  Women in rural areas in particular faced 
difficulties, as they were more likely not to have a 
citizenship card or not have the name on the card match the 
surname on the voters list.  An observer from the Carter 
Center noted that the turnout in Kanchanpur was as low as 30 
percent and attributed this to a combination of 
identification issues, excessive heat, and general 
disinterest in the by-election. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) These by-elections will not change the political 
equation.  The overall assessment of domestic observers and 
the few international observers is that the election went 
relatively smoothly.  Problems, where they arose, were 
localized, and with the possible exception of one 
constituency (Kaski) do not appear to have skewed the 
results.  At first glance, the most interesting new addition 
to the CA is former Prime Minister Koirala's nephew and 
former peace negotiator, Shekhar Koirala.  There is already 
 
KATHMANDU 00000298  003 OF 003 
 
 
talk of what role he would play on the national level. 
POWELL